Kalshi market mispricing audits and podcast-to-prediction-market reports.
October 2026
Report date 2026-10-12 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· horizon 45 days (to 2026-11-26) Β· capital $2,500 Β· category focus: Politics Β· existing pick excluded: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO
Report date 2026-10-09 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· capital $2,500 Β· horizon 45 days Β· focus category Politics Β· universe = Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, generated 2026-10-09T16:36Z)
Report date 2026-10-08 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· horizon 45 days (to 2026-11-22) Β· capital $2,500 Β· category focus: Politics (advisory)
Verdict: hold cash. The 45-day window inside the allowlist contains almost nothing Anchor can trade. Of 830 open markets in the 120 target series, 798 close beyond Nov 21, and the in-horizon remainder is dominated by "before Nov 1" tails priced at 1β5Β’ (NO side β₯95Β’, deep-favorit
Horizon 45 days Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Universe: targets.json generated 2026-10-06 16:37Z (120 series rows, 110 unique tickers) Β· Existing pick: KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26 NO
Report date 2026-10-05 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· category focus: Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500 Β· universe: targets.json (111 allowlisted series, generated 2026-10-05 16:37 UTC)
Report date 2026-10-02 Β· strategy Anchor Β· audit_version anchor Β· category focus Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
Report date 2026-10-01 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· category focus: Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
September 2026
Report date 2026-09-30 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· horizon 45d Β· capital $2,500 Β· category focus: Politics (any allowlisted series in scope) Β· universe: targets.json generated 2026-09-30T16:37Z (120 rows / 115 unique series, min OI 5,000)
The Stage-0 allowlist (120 series, 115 with open markets) yields 869 open markets , of which only 6 survive the mechanical cuts inside the 45-day horizon (close β€ Nov 13; vol24 β₯ 500; spread β€ 5Β’; 5Β’ < YES < 95Β’; β₯ 7 days to expiry). Of those six, one produces an Anchor-shaped NO
Report date 2026-09-28 Β· strategy Anchor Β· audit_version anchor Β· category focus Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
Report date 2026-09-25 Β· strategy Anchor Β· audit_version anchor Β· category focus Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
Kalshi Β· Politics Β· Anchor methodology ( strategy=Anchor , audit_version=anchor ) Β· report date 2026-09-24 Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
Report date 2026-09-23 Β· strategy Anchor Β· audit_version anchor Β· focus category Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
Report date 2026-09-22 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· focus category: Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500 Β· universe: targets.json (120 allowlisted series, min OI 5,000, generated 2026-09-22 16:37Z)
Report date 2026-09-21 Β· strategy Anchor Β· audit_version anchor Β· category focus Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500 Β· run kalshi-anchor-politics-q9v2r
ticker KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26OCT17 side NO signal #1041 run 2026-09-09 politics audit v4 placed 2026-09-09 16:22Z closes 2026-10-17 03:59Z (28d)
Report date 2026-09-18 Β· Keel v4 Β· category focus: Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
Keel v4 Β· Kalshi mispricing audit Β· topic: Politics Β· report date 2026-09-17 Β· run kalshi-mispricing-politics-10k-4x4sz
KXFISAEXTEND-26JUN-26OCT01 Β· NO Β· Politics Β· closes 2026-10-01T14:00:00Z Β· signal #860 Β· 2026-08-17-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel
2026-09-17 Β· desk: Sentinel Β· 4 triggered picks
Report date 2026-09-16 Β· run at 2026-09-16T17:15Z Β· capital $2,500 Β· horizon 45 days Β· category focus Politics (advisory; all Tier-1/2 allowlisted series in scope) Β· methodology Keel v4
Entry 84Β’ β Now 98Β’ (peak 99.5Β’) YES book 0 / 2 Model then 86% β Sentinel now 95% β implied 98% Close 2026-10-01 03:59Z (15d) capital_free Verdict intact Decision EXIT
KXFISAEXTEND-26JUN-26OCT01 Β· Politics Β· closes 2026-10-01T14:00:00Z Β· signal #860 Β· audit
Report date 2026-09-15 Β· Keel v4 Β· category focus: AI (advisory) Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500 Β· model claude-fable-5-1
2026-09-15 Β· quotes fetched 14:01Z from api.elections.kalshi.com Β· 3 picks triggered Β· 3 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
Kalshi Politics audit, 2026-09-14 (v3.3): 566 markets screened, 20 diligenced, 2 medium-conviction picks on the Suez Canal PortWatch transit ladder ($139 of $1,000 deployed), 14 logged rejects incl. the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb coin-flips.
Keel v4 Β· report date 2026-09-14 Β· category focus: Politics Β· horizon 45 days Β· capital $2,500
What changed: nothing on 702 itself, and the one priced tail closed. The September stopgap, H.R. 6500 (Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027), passed the Senate 90-6 and House 370-48 and was signed Sept 3 . The enrolled text contains zero FISA / Section 702 language
AI Β· medium conviction Β· closes 2026-10-01 Β· run 2026-08-18-kalshi-ai-mispricing-audit-v4
Report date 2026-09-11 Β· Keel v4 Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Horizon 45 days Β· Universe: targets.json (120 series, Tier 1β2) Β· Existing pick excluded: KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT
Report date 2026-09-10 Β· generated 2026-09-10 12:17 UTC Β· Keel v4 Β· capital $10,000 Β· horizon 45 days Β· category focus: Politics Β· universe: targets.json (120 series, 76 Tier 1 / 44 Tier 2, generated 2026-09-10 12:07 UTC)
Report date 2026-09-09 Β· Keel v4 Β· Category focus: Politics (any Tier-1 series in scope) Β· Horizon 45 days Β· Capital $2,500
Retrospective over 552 resolved picks and 172 reports: NO-side structural theses beat the market by ~9 pts, YES-side trend/arithmetic theses lost ~12 (β25 on data-series markets). Anchor, the new experimental strategy, only takes the side the record supports.
Report date 2026-09-08 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· horizon 45 days (close by 2026-10-23 18:30Z) Β· capital $2,500 Β· run kalshi-anchor-politics-c77j6
1 pick, 49 logged rejects, $159 deployed (6.4% of capital), $2,341 cash. The Stage-0 sweep of every allowlisted series via the Kalshi public API found 672 open markets, of which 49 close or expire inside the 45-day window. Exactly one clears every mechanical cut: the Anthropic IP
Run date 2026-09-08 Β· strategy=Anchor Β· audit_version=anchor Β· horizon 45d Β· capital $2,500 Β· universe: Stage-0 allowlist (117 series), 62 open markets in window
close 2026-10-01 Β· origin audit
August 2026
Report date 2026-08-25 Β· Horizon 45 days (through 2026-10-09) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Category focus: AI (advisory) Β· Universe: targets.json allowlist (118 series, generated 2026-08-25 15:06 UTC)
What changed since entry (Jul 20): nothing that hurts us. Section 702 lapsed Jun 11 after H.R. 9238 failed 197β218 , and no reauthorization vehicle has moved since β the Brennan Center 702 tracker (updated Jul 30) shows no enacted legislation. FISC certifications keep surve
2026-08-25 Β· 2 triggered picks reviewed Β· decisions: 2 exit , 0 hold, 0 skip
Keel v4 Β· archetype-targeted, precedent-fed Β· run date 2026-08-24 Β· horizon 45 days (to 2026-10-08) Β· capital $2,500
Liquidity: 522k contracts bid at 99Β’ β execution trivial.
What moved: Bloomberg (Aug 20) β Anthropic expects to match or top SpaceX's record IPO, public S-1 filing "as early as late August," October debut at ~$2T. Real news, not noise: it tightens the timeline the original thesis relied on (flip needed by ~Sep 8 for any pre-Oct-1 path)
Liquidity: 200 contracts bid at 97Β’ NO β clean exit available if needed.
placed 2026-07-20 Β· original model prob 96% Β· conviction high Β· original audit
Liquidity: moderate β ~112 contracts at 96.9Β’, ~193 at 96.8Β’, ~405 at 96.0Β’; a large exit walks the book a few deci-cents. Β· Lineage: signal 721 Β· 2026-07-27 audit
v4 (archetype-targeted, precedent-fed) Β· Report date 2026-08-21 Β· Horizon 45 days Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Focus category: Politics
What moved: Bloomberg (Aug 20) reported Anthropic expects to match or top SpaceX's record IPO and could publicly file its S-1 as soon as end of August. YES ran from ~22Β’ to ~40Β’ on 44k contracts in 24h. That report genuinely weakens the original thesis, which re
1 pick triggered Β· 1 exit Β· 0 hold Β· 0 skip Β |Β 14 live picks monitored
Report date 2026-08-20 Β· Horizon 45 days (to Oct 4) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Universe: 120 pre-classified target series from targets.json (generated 2026-08-20 22:13 UTC)
2026-08-20 Β· Keel v4 Β· Category focus: Politics Β· Horizon: 45 days Β· Capital: $10,000 Β· Universe: targets.json (70 allowlisted series, generated 2026-08-20 12:06 UTC)
Placed 2026-07-20 Β· model prob at entry 96% Β· live quotes: yes_bid 0Β’ / yes_ask 1Β’ β NO exits at 99Β’
2026-08-20 Β· 3 triggered picks reviewed Β· 2 exit / 1 hold Β· all theses intact β exits are capital-efficiency calls, not thesis failures
v4 methodology (archetype-targeted, precedent-fed) Β· Report date 2026-08-19 Β· Horizon 45 days Β· Capital $2,500
2026-08-19 Β· 2 positions triggered Β· both capital_free (β₯95Β’) Β· decisions: 2 exit, 0 hold
Report date 2026-08-18 Β· Horizon 45 days (through 2026-10-02) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Category focus: AI (advisory) Β· Universe: Stage-0 allowlist (targets.json, generated 2026-08-18) Β· Methodology: Keel v4 β probability before price, precedent-fed, one leg per cluster
13 live picks; 1 tripped a trigger since last review. Decision below re-checked against live Kalshi quotes and primary reporting as of this morning.
What changed: Nothing has been signed β Federal Register presidential documents since Jul 27 contain no election-related emergency action, and the market (which closes early on issuance) is still active with YES at ~5Β’. No official White House drafting has been
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (2026-08-17, v3.3 methodology): 3 NO-side favorite picks β Hormuz normalization, crypto market-structure law, FISA 702 reauth β $369 of $1,000 deployed, 7 logged rejects.
Report date 2026-08-17 Β· Horizon 45 days (to Oct 1, 2026) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Universe: Stage-0 allowlist (targets.json, 60 series, generated 2026-08-17 16:06 UTC) Β· Advisory category: Politics
All three positions tripped the β₯95Β’ capital-free trigger. Every thesis re-verified as intact β these are winners being harvested, not saves. All three markets close Sep 1 (15 days out), past the ~7-day hold window; the remaining 1β3Β’ isn't worth the lock-up and tail risk.
2026-08-16 Β· 2 positions triggered Β· both capital_free (β₯95Β’) Β· decisions: 2 exit / 0 hold
The thesis β no physical path to a signed law before Sep 1 β is now confirmed fact: the Senate recessed without voting on CLARITY , and Thune's Aug 8 cloture filing sets the first procedural vote for Sep 15 β two weeks after resolution. NO wins, but it bids only
2026-08-15 Β· 1 pick triggered Β· 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
Run date 2026-08-14 Β· Horizon 45 days (markets closing by 2026-09-28) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Category focus: Politics Β· Methodology: Keel v4 (Stage-0 allowlist, probability-before-price, precedent-fed)
2026-08-14 Β· 1 pick triggered Β· 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
yes 5.0/6.0Β’ Β· vol24h 4279 Β· OI 5584 Β· closes 2026-08-16
placed 2026-07-20 Β· run 2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit
3 exits, 0 holds. All three tripped capital_free (β₯95Β’). Every thesis re-checked out as intact β these are winners being closed for capital efficiency, not losers being cut. In each case the market has caught up to our probability and the residual 1β4Β’ over 19 days to the S
Run date 2026-08-12 Β· Horizon 45 days (markets closing by 2026-09-26) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Universe: targets.json (Stage-0 allowlist, generated 2026-08-12T16:06Z)
One position woke the desk today, on a capital_free trigger. Thesis re-checked against live reporting and the Kalshi book; decision below.
Run date 2026-08-11 Β· Horizon 45 days (through 2026-09-25) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Category focus: AI (advisory) Β· Universe: targets.json allowlist, 117 series
Live quotes fetched 2026-08-11 from the Kalshi trade API; theses re-checked against primary reporting.
All three picks tripped the capital_free trigger (β₯95Β’) with ~22 days to a SepΒ 1 close. Verdict: exit all three . The two Hormuz NOs also carry a genuinely weakened thesis β a USβIranβOman reopening deal is reportedly days away, which is exactly the tail the original picks discou
Entry 83Β’ Peak 99.5Β’ Now (exec) 99Β’ (yes 0/1) Our prob 99% Closes Sep 1
2026-08-08 Β· 1 position triggered Β· 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
Report date 2026-08-07 Β· Horizon 45 days (close β€ 2026-09-21) Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Methodology Keel v4 (Stage-0 allowlist, probability-before-price, precedent-fed)
The thesis's own named tail risk ("no cloture motion has actually been filedβ¦ a jammed floor lets Thune punt") is precisely what happened. Thune never filed cloture β the Wednesday Aug 5 filing deadline for a Friday vote passed with no action ( Punchbowl: "cloture slips" ), and f
(v4, archetype-targeted, precedent-fed)
2026-08-06 Β· 3 triggered picks reviewed Β· live quotes fetched 2026-08-06
Considered: YES @ 86Β’ effective Β· cluster blanche-ag-confirmation Β· book 84 / 85, 18.6k vol24h, 41.1k OI Β· Reason: no edge vs. efficient book
Report date 2026-08-04 Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Horizon 45 days (to Sep 18) Β· Universe: targets.json allowlist (117 series, generated 2026-08-04 15:06 UTC) Β· Category focus: AI (advisory β no allowlisted AI-category series had qualifying open markets in horizon; slate worked Tier-1-fir
2026-08-04 Β· 2 triggered picks reviewed Β· 2 exits, 0 holds Β· quotes fetched live from Kalshi 2026-08-04
v3.3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets, Aug 3 2026: 22 candidates screened, 1 HIGH-conviction pick (zero Mar-a-Lago trips in August @ 93Β’), 13 logged rejects, 85% cash. Efficient week; the screens did the work.
(Keel v4, archetype-targeted)
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50 Β· closes 2026-08-04 16:45Z Β· signal 325 Β· source audit
2026-08-02 Β· 2 triggered picks reviewed Β· 2 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
Entry 92Β’ Now 95Β’ (bid, ~14.4k deep) Peak 95.5Β’ Trigger capital_free Thesis intact Our prob 97% vs market ~95β96% Closes Sep 1 (31d)
July 2026
Report date 2026-07-31 Β· Horizon 45 days Β· Capital $2,500 Β· Universe: targets.json (Stage-0 allowlist, 72 Tier-1 series + Tier-2), generated 2026-07-31T16:06Z Β· Methodology: Keel v4 (probability-before-price, precedent-fed, one leg per cluster)
YES 83Β’ β 0Β’ bid (peak 97.5Β’) reversal adverse invalidated HOLD (forced β no bid)
2026-07-31 Β· 4 triggered picks reviewed Β· 3 hold / 1 exit Β· all quotes fetched live from Kalshi at review time
(v4, archetype-targeted, precedent-fed)
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit for 2026-07-30: 365 markets scanned, 12 diligenced, 1 medium-conviction pick (Hormuz weekly transit calls) and 13 logged rejects. 97.8% cash β an efficient week.
Liquidity note: top-of-book NO bid is only ~10 contracts at 27Β’ (then 89 @ 26Β’, 429 @ 25Β’) β realized exit for size β 25β26Β’. Decision stands on the merits regardless. Live book: YES 72 / 73. original audit
Kalshi Politics audit, Jul 29 2026 (v3.3): 366 markets screened, 17 diligenced, ZERO picks deployed β the one apparent edge (Hormuz weekly ladder) was a resolver-lag phantom caught by live AIS data. 100% cash; 16 logged rejects shadow-tracked.
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit (v3.3, 2026-07-28): 14 market families reviewed, 6 candidates fully diligenced, 0 picks deployed β every checkable edge was priced, unfillable, or rode an unverifiable resolver. $2,500 held 100% cash; 8 rejects logged for shadow-tracking.
The original thesis β that the 14β15Β’ YES price was residue from NPRβs retracted false retirement report, against a very low base rate of July recess announcements β has held and strengthened. No announcement has come from Alito or the Courtβs Public Information
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (2026-07-27): 352 markets screened, 4 picks β NO on Hormuz normalization by Sep 1, NO on approval-collapse wing, YES on a CLARITY Act recorded vote, NO on Hegseth out β $390 of $1,000 deployed, 61% cash.
Kalshi Politics audit 2026-07-27: 352 markets screened, 17 diligenced, 4 picks β Hormuz 7dMA NO, RCP-approval-below-40.2 NO (both HIGH), CLARITY-Act-vote YES and election-emergency NO (MEDIUM). $1,098 of $2,500 deployed, 12 logged rejects.
One position woke the desk: the crypto market-structure NO tripped capital_free at 96.5Β’ mid. Thesis re-checked against live reporting β intact, but the position has nothing left to earn relative to five weeks of locked capital.
1:10 PM ET Β· Comerica Park Β· KXMLBGAME-26JUL251310KCDET
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit (v3.3, 2026-07-24): 24 candidates reviewed, 1 high-conviction pick (Kimi #1 on LM Code Arena, Jul 27), 13 logged rejects, 89% cash. An efficient week.
2026-07-24 Β· 1 pick triggered Β· 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
Kalshi Politics audit 2026-07-23 (v3.3): one high-conviction pick β Hormuz weekly transits >40 YES @77Β’ (resolver's own feed shows a 12/day run rate with a 6/day floor) β plus 13 logged rejects. $391 of $10,000 deployed; cash is a position.
signal 616 Β· run 2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-20 16:25Z Β· original model prob 94% Β· conviction high
Kalshi Economics audit 2026-07-22: 3 picks ($461 of $2,500 deployed), 13 logged rejects. Gas-price pass-through favorites + fading the July Fed hike leg; CPI, Russia, claims and fast-food trackers rejected.
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit, 2026-07-21: 18 markets reviewed across model-release, leaderboard, GPU-price and policy events; 1 pick (GPT-6 NO), 15 logged rejects, 93% cash. An efficient week.
What changed since entry (2026-07-02): nothing against us β and two new points for us. No retirement announcement has followed the retracted June 30 NPR/Totenberg story; Totenberg formally apologized to Alito for the error. SCOTUSblog reports Alito has hired law clerks for th
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (ensemble) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-20
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (2026-07-20, v3.3 methodology): 4 picks from 366 markets reviewed β a mechanically-resolved July tariff market at 75Β’, two recess-calendar legislative NOs, and one RCP approval-ladder rung. $457.70 of $1,000 deployed, 15 logged rejects.
v3.3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets (2026-07-20): 29 Stage-1 survivors, 15 diligenced, 3 picks β NO on crypto-bill-by-Sep-1 (calendar-locked), YES on July tariff action, NO on Hormuz peak>20 β $715 of $2,500 deployed, 12 logged rejects.
signal #261 Β· run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-06 16:19 UTC Β· model prob at entry 95% Β· conviction: high
Event KXWCGAME-26JUL19ESPARG Β· MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ Β· Kickoff 19:00 UTC (3:00 pm ET) Β· Researched ~13:00 UTC β pre-kickoff β Β· Referee: Slavko VinΔiΔ
signal #263 Β· run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-06T16:19Z Β· original model prob 85% Β· conviction: medium Β· topic: Politics
2026-07-18 Β· 1 triggered pick reviewed Β· 1 hold / 0 exit / 0 skip
KXWCGAME-26JUL18FRAENG Β· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL Β· Kickoff 21:00 UTC (5:00 pm ET) β researched ~8h pre-kickoff Β· Regulation-time (90 min + stoppage) moneyline
2026-07-17 Β· 2 triggered picks reviewed Β· 1 hold Β· 1 exit
No games today β no picks.
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-16
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-16
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, 2026-07-16 (v3.3 methodology): 14 candidates diligenced, 1 medium-conviction pick (Blanche AG committee vote), 13 logged rejects. An efficient week β 98% cash.
No KXWCGAME event carries a 26JUL16 ticker date. July 16 is a tournament rest day: the semifinals were played July 14 ( KXWCGAME-26JUL14FRAESP ) and July 15 ( KXWCGAME-26JUL15ENGARG ); the remaining fixtures are the third-place match on July 18 ( KXWCGAME-26JUL1
Kalshi AI β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi AI β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Economics β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Economics β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Economics audit (2026-07-15, v3.3): 16 markets diligenced, one MEDIUM-conviction pick (NO on July CPI >0.2%), 14 logged rejects β the Hormuz gas repricing and the FOMC dissent coin-flip both failed the entry screens. 93% cash.
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (Tide Β· openai/gpt-5.6-luna) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
11 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 4 direct Kalshi matches, 2 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-15 10:11 UTC
KXWCGAME-26JUL15ENGARG Β· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Β· kickoff 19:00 UTC (3pm ET) Β· researched ~13:00β13:30 UTC, pre-kickoff Β· regulation-time moneyline
Kalshi AI-market audit, Jul 14 2026 (v3.1): 20 markets screened against their actual resolvers (Ornn GPU index, Arena leaderboards, Datacurve DeepSWE). One MEDIUM-conviction pick deployed ($69 of $1,000); 17 diligenced candidates rejected and shadow-tracked. Efficient category β cash is the position.
signal #191 Β· run 2026-07-01-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-02 Β· YES quotes at review: 4Β’ bid / 5Β’ ask
signal #263 Β· run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-06 16:19Z Β· marks: 75 β 79.5 β 74.5 β 82 β 89.5 β 93.5 β 95.5
Report date: 2026-07-14 Β· Capital: $1,000 Β· Desk rule: every match played today gets full research and exactly one pick, positive edge or not. experimental / arena
v3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets, 2026-07-13: 15 candidates diligenced, 1 pick deployed (Hormuz weekly transit-calls >100 β BUY NO, high conviction), 14 logged rejects. 95% cash held in an efficient week.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (v3.1, Jul 13 2026): 307 markets screened, 1 pick (NO on Hormuz Jul 13-19 transit calls >100), 14 logged rejects, 95% cash held in an efficiently priced week.
Side NO Entry β Now (Peak) 87Β’ β 99Β’ (99.5Β’) Trigger capital_free Verdict intact Decision HOLD New prob 99% Expires Jul 18, 14:00 UTC
21 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 12 direct Kalshi matches, 1 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-13 10:17 UTC
No games today. No KXWCGAME event carries a 26JUL13 game date (verified across all 102 events in the series, all statuses). July 13 is a rest day between the quarterfinals (July 10β11) and the semifinals: France vs Spain (KXWCGAME-26JUL14FRAESP, July 14) and England vs Argentina
No World Cup matches are scheduled for 2026-07-12 β it is a rest day between the quarterfinals and the semifinals. Verified against the full Kalshi KXWCGAME series (102 events, all statuses): zero event tickers dated 26JUL12.
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens Β· kickoff 21:00 UTC (5pm ET) Β· pre-kickoff at research time (13:01 UTC) Β· event KXWCGAME-26JUL11NORENG
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-10 10:02 UTC
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (climate-controlled, fixed ETFE canopy) Β· Kickoff 2026-07-10 19:00 UTC (12:00 PT) Β· Event KXWCGAME-26JUL10ESPBEL Β· Regulation-time moneyline
v3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets (Jul 9, 2026): 2 picks β ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Trump's signature, and a capped Hormuz PortWatch lottery β plus 12 logged rejects in a whipsawed, efficient week.
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01 Β· NO Β· signal #191 Β· source audit 2026-07-01 Β· closes 2026-08-01
KXWCGAME-26JUL09FRAMAR Β· Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA Β· Kickoff 20:00 UTC (4:00 PM ET) Β· Assessed 13:00 UTC β pre-kickoff (~7h) Β· Conditions: sunny, 88β90Β°F, light wind, open-air
v3.1 audit of Kalshi Economics markets, 2026-07-08: 42 liquid markets screened, 16 diligenced, 3 picks β all on the July 14 CPI print β $115.81 of $1,000 deployed, 88% cash. A Stage-2.5 resolver check flipped the 'safest' candidate from near-lock to negative-EV.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-08 10:03 UTC
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit, 2026-07-07: 15 markets reviewed, 10 diligenced, zero picks cleared the v3 conviction/entry-band screens β 100% cash held. Full reject log with resolver profiles inside.
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit (v3 methodology, 2026-07-07): 3 picks (2 favorites + 1 capped lottery), $239 of $1,000 deployed, 14 logged rejects. GPT-5.6 GA timing, LMArena math race, and an 11:1 shot on the current #1 model.
Checked: VoteHub averages API (values, poll-answers) Β· Kalshi market + orderbook Β· press polling roundups ( Silver Bulletin )
BC Place, Vancouver Β· Kickoff 20:00 UTC (1pm PT), July 7 Β· Event KXWCGAME-26JUL07SUICOL Β· Researched & priced pre-match (~17:10β17:25 UTC)
Kalshi Politics audit (v3 methodology), Jul 6 2026: 274 markets screened, 15 diligenced, 4 picks β Trump-image passport (74Β’, already issuing), zero Mar-a-Lago July trips (91Β’), VoteHub approval floor (75Β’), Knesset dissolution (77Β’). $384 of $1,000 deployed, 62% cash.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (v3 methodology), 2026-07-06: 47 liquid markets screened, 9 diligenced, 1 pick β Trump-image passport issuance reported before Jul 20 (YES @74Β’, model 84%). 93% cash held; 8 logged rejects.
2026-07-06 Β· 1 pick triggered Β· decision: 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-06 10:02 UTC
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL05-T200 Trigger: reversal Entry 27Β’ β peak 33Β’ β now 22Β’ (NO bid; YES 76 / 78) My P(NO): 8% vs ~22% implied Closes 2026-07-07
2026-07-03 Β· 2 positions triggered Β· 1 exit / 1 hold Β· run: 2026-07-01-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel ( audit report )
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-03 10:02 UTC
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, July 2, 2026 (v3 methodology): 290 markets screened, 8 candidates diligenced, zero picks deployed β every survivor failed the edge test or the conviction/entry-band screen. 100% cash. All 8 rejects logged for shadow-tracking.
v3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets, Jul 1-2 2026: 13 candidates diligenced, 4 picks (two Alito-retirement NO legs, EO-week NO, one labeled Hormuz lottery), 9 logged rejects, $211 of $1,000 deployed.
June 2026
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (ensemble) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-06-29
Kalshi Science & Technology mispricing audit, 2026-06-26 (v3). Verdict: no deployable edge this week β an efficient, top-of-book-thin slate. 0 picks, 8 logged rejects, 100% cash held on a $1,000 book.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, 25 Jun 2026: one defensible structural pick (housing-bill enactment timing) and 17 logged rejects β an efficient slate dominated by a freshly-priced legislative standoff and imminent SCOTUS decisions.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets, Jun 24 2026. One defensible pick β Fed July HOLD, mispriced by an unrepriced oil crash β with ~93% held as cash. v3 conviction-weighted methodology.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Elections markets closing within 45 days. Verdict: an efficient/illiquid category β zero contracts clear the v3 conviction + entry-band screens. 0 picks, 10 logged rejects, 100% cash.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing by Aug 6, 2026. 3 defensible picks (Hegseth/Kash tenure, Hormuz transit recovery), 9 logged rejects, ~80% cash held in an event-dominated, efficient slate.
Kalshi Science & Technology mispricing audit, 19 Jun 2026: SpaceX's June launch cadence (9 flown in 19 days) leaves the upper tail of the monthly launch-count ladder under-priced. Two YES tail picks; everything else passes.
7 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 4 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-19 10:07 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets (June 18, 2026): 4 mispriced contracts β Clayton DNI confirmation, Powell staying on the Fed board, the CLARITY Act calendar, and a FISA 702 reauthorization standoff. With sources, sizing, and rejects.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets closing within 45 days (2026-06-17). Verdict: category is largely efficient; the one residual edge is gas β the market may have over-extrapolated the linear AAA price decline into late June. Two gas picks, modest sizing.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-17 10:02 UTC
Experimental v2 mispricing audit of Kalshi 2026 FIFA World Cup markets: 4 shadow-tracked picks with explicit probabilities, entry context and cluster-capped sizing across a $1,000 book.
Kalshi Elections mispricing audit, June 15 2026: one defensible thesis β the June 17 FOMC will hold but draw a dissent (priced ~36c, fair ~58%). Most of the category is too thin or efficiently priced to trade.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days. Three defensible picks: Gabbard out as DNI (YES), McConnell not leaving the Senate (NO), and Clayton's DNI confirmation timing (NO).
3 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 1 direct Kalshi matches, 1 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-15 10:05 UTC
5 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 3 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-12 10:05 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days: 3 defensible picks (Trump at the World Cup final, no near-term Iran nuclear deal, Hormuz traffic stays collapsed) from a 339-market screen, with a documented Gabbard definitional trap rejected.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets closing within 45 days. Two defensible AAA gas-price picks; the headline 'FOMC dissent' mispricing is shown to be a trap after the lone dissenter resigned.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-10 10:03 UTC
Kalshi AI mispricing audit (v2, 2026-06-09): the Claude Fable 5 launch repriced every AI leaderboard market in hours β 4 picks fading the hype, 6 logged rejects, $1,000 cluster-capped portfolio.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Elections markets closing within 45 days. 3 picks led by a high-conviction NO on Graham Platner dropping out of the Maine Senate race. Subjective probabilities; trades resolve to zero.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, 8 Jun 2026: 3 picks from a 322-market screen β fade the Trump-Mamdani 'meeting', buy Mamdani's weekly executive-order base rate, lean against a Starmer exit. $1,000 portfolio.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-08 10:02 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets closing within 45 days. One core edge (May CPI >4.2% NO vs the 4.18% Cleveland nowcast) plus one capped-downside gas lottery; the rest of the macro slate is efficiently priced.
4 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 1 direct Kalshi matches, 2 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-05 10:04 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days as of 2026-06-04: 4 modest-edge picks (crypto-bill NO, June tariff action YES, Senate reconciliation YES), liquidity-capped sizing, and a full rejection log.
Kalshi Economics mispricing audit, 3 Jun 2026: the big US macro ladders and the Brazil/Mexico/Fed rate markets screen as efficient; the only defensible edge is a low-conviction bet that the multi-week AAA gasoline decline doesn't fully stall by Jun 8.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Elections markets closing within 45 days: 43 markets screened, 7 worked up, 2 deployable edges β NO on DΓaz-Canel staying in office and NO on a clean June FOMC (no-change + zero-dissents) combo. $1,000 portfolio.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days (as of 2026-06-03). Two defensible picks survive adversarial review: BUY YES on June tariff action, BUY NO on Kennedy Center name removal. $1,000 portfolio.
May 2026
Deep-research audit of Kalshi politics markets, 2026-05-30: 14 candidates screened to 3 picks, all in the Strait of Hormuz weekly transit-call cluster, sized into a $1,000 book.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi politics markets closing within 45 days: 3 defensible NO picks (Senate reconciliation timing, Knesset dissolution, Starmer) with a $1,000 portfolio.
Retrospective scoring of every podcast prediction in the Kalmari database against settled Kalshi markets and post-publish price drift.
Audit of active Kalshi business markets (Companies + Financials) closing within 45 days, with six trade picks and a $10,000 portfolio sized around them.
33 predictions across 17 episodes (politics, sports, markets, tech), 25 direct + 8 proxy Kalshi matches. Each row shows the side to take to copy the speaker, with live prices.
12 predictions extracted; 1 direct + 2 proxy Polymarket/Manifold matches. Includes audio scrubber tied to timestamps.
Audit of the May 8 Hard Fork episode about US regulation of prediction markets, mapped to Polymarket + Manifold.
April 2026
Top 5 picks + $10,000 portfolio across politics & elections markets resolving by 2026-06-01. Trump-China trip, Kash Patel exit, DHS funding. $1,400 expected EV. (Reportedly +$2,000 realized.)