Kalshi market mispricing audits and podcast-to-prediction-market reports.
May 2026
Deep-research audit of Kalshi politics markets closing within 45 days. Five picks with quantified edge across Patel, Hegseth, Senate reconciliation, Knesset dissolution, and Strait of Hormuz transit normalization.
Retrospective scoring of every podcast prediction in the Kalmari database against settled Kalshi markets and post-publish price drift.
Audit of active Kalshi business markets (Companies + Financials) closing within 45 days, with six trade picks and a $10,000 portfolio sized around them.
33 predictions across 17 episodes (politics, sports, markets, tech), 25 direct + 8 proxy Kalshi matches. Each row shows the side to take to copy the speaker, with live prices.
12 predictions extracted; 1 direct + 2 proxy Polymarket/Manifold matches. Includes audio scrubber tied to timestamps.
Audit of the May 8 Hard Fork episode about US regulation of prediction markets, mapped to Polymarket + Manifold.
April 2026
Top 5 picks + $10,000 portfolio across politics & elections markets resolving by 2026-06-01. Trump-China trip, Kash Patel exit, DHS funding. $1,400 expected EV. (Reportedly +$2,000 realized.)