Kalshi market mispricing audits and podcast-to-prediction-market reports.
July 2026
One position woke the desk: the crypto market-structure NO tripped capital_free at 96.5Β’ mid. Thesis re-checked against live reporting β intact, but the position has nothing left to earn relative to five weeks of locked capital.
1:10 PM ET Β· Comerica Park Β· KXMLBGAME-26JUL251310KCDET
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit (v3.3, 2026-07-24): 24 candidates reviewed, 1 high-conviction pick (Kimi #1 on LM Code Arena, Jul 27), 13 logged rejects, 89% cash. An efficient week.
2026-07-24 Β· 1 pick triggered Β· 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
Kalshi Politics audit 2026-07-23 (v3.3): one high-conviction pick β Hormuz weekly transits >40 YES @77Β’ (resolver's own feed shows a 12/day run rate with a 6/day floor) β plus 13 logged rejects. $391 of $10,000 deployed; cash is a position.
signal 616 Β· run 2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-20 16:25Z Β· original model prob 94% Β· conviction high
Kalshi Economics audit 2026-07-22: 3 picks ($461 of $2,500 deployed), 13 logged rejects. Gas-price pass-through favorites + fading the July Fed hike leg; CPI, Russia, claims and fast-food trackers rejected.
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit, 2026-07-21: 18 markets reviewed across model-release, leaderboard, GPU-price and policy events; 1 pick (GPT-6 NO), 15 logged rejects, 93% cash. An efficient week.
What changed since entry (2026-07-02): nothing against us β and two new points for us. No retirement announcement has followed the retracted June 30 NPR/Totenberg story; Totenberg formally apologized to Alito for the error. SCOTUSblog reports Alito has hired law clerks for th
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (ensemble) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-20
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (2026-07-20, v3.3 methodology): 4 picks from 366 markets reviewed β a mechanically-resolved July tariff market at 75Β’, two recess-calendar legislative NOs, and one RCP approval-ladder rung. $457.70 of $1,000 deployed, 15 logged rejects.
v3.3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets (2026-07-20): 29 Stage-1 survivors, 15 diligenced, 3 picks β NO on crypto-bill-by-Sep-1 (calendar-locked), YES on July tariff action, NO on Hormuz peak>20 β $715 of $2,500 deployed, 12 logged rejects.
signal #261 Β· run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-06 16:19 UTC Β· model prob at entry 95% Β· conviction: high
Event KXWCGAME-26JUL19ESPARG Β· MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ Β· Kickoff 19:00 UTC (3:00 pm ET) Β· Researched ~13:00 UTC β pre-kickoff β Β· Referee: Slavko VinΔiΔ
signal #263 Β· run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-06T16:19Z Β· original model prob 85% Β· conviction: medium Β· topic: Politics
2026-07-18 Β· 1 triggered pick reviewed Β· 1 hold / 0 exit / 0 skip
KXWCGAME-26JUL18FRAENG Β· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL Β· Kickoff 21:00 UTC (5:00 pm ET) β researched ~8h pre-kickoff Β· Regulation-time (90 min + stoppage) moneyline
2026-07-17 Β· 2 triggered picks reviewed Β· 1 hold Β· 1 exit
No games today β no picks.
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-16
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-16
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, 2026-07-16 (v3.3 methodology): 14 candidates diligenced, 1 medium-conviction pick (Blanche AG committee vote), 13 logged rejects. An efficient week β 98% cash.
No KXWCGAME event carries a 26JUL16 ticker date. July 16 is a tournament rest day: the semifinals were played July 14 ( KXWCGAME-26JUL14FRAESP ) and July 15 ( KXWCGAME-26JUL15ENGARG ); the remaining fixtures are the third-place match on July 18 ( KXWCGAME-26JUL1
Kalshi AI β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi AI β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Economics β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Economics β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Economics audit (2026-07-15, v3.3): 16 markets diligenced, one MEDIUM-conviction pick (NO on July CPI >0.2%), 14 logged rejects β the Hormuz gas repricing and the FOMC dissent coin-flip both failed the entry screens. 93% cash.
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Ballast Β· openai/gpt-5.6-terra @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Entertainment β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (Sextant Β· openai/gpt-5.6-sol @xhigh) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (Tide Β· openai/gpt-5.6-luna) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-07-15
11 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 4 direct Kalshi matches, 2 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-15 10:11 UTC
KXWCGAME-26JUL15ENGARG Β· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Β· kickoff 19:00 UTC (3pm ET) Β· researched ~13:00β13:30 UTC, pre-kickoff Β· regulation-time moneyline
Kalshi AI-market audit, Jul 14 2026 (v3.1): 20 markets screened against their actual resolvers (Ornn GPU index, Arena leaderboards, Datacurve DeepSWE). One MEDIUM-conviction pick deployed ($69 of $1,000); 17 diligenced candidates rejected and shadow-tracked. Efficient category β cash is the position.
signal #191 Β· run 2026-07-01-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-02 Β· YES quotes at review: 4Β’ bid / 5Β’ ask
signal #263 Β· run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel Β· placed 2026-07-06 16:19Z Β· marks: 75 β 79.5 β 74.5 β 82 β 89.5 β 93.5 β 95.5
Report date: 2026-07-14 Β· Capital: $1,000 Β· Desk rule: every match played today gets full research and exactly one pick, positive edge or not. experimental / arena
v3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets, 2026-07-13: 15 candidates diligenced, 1 pick deployed (Hormuz weekly transit-calls >100 β BUY NO, high conviction), 14 logged rejects. 95% cash held in an efficient week.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (v3.1, Jul 13 2026): 307 markets screened, 1 pick (NO on Hormuz Jul 13-19 transit calls >100), 14 logged rejects, 95% cash held in an efficiently priced week.
Side NO Entry β Now (Peak) 87Β’ β 99Β’ (99.5Β’) Trigger capital_free Verdict intact Decision HOLD New prob 99% Expires Jul 18, 14:00 UTC
21 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 12 direct Kalshi matches, 1 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-13 10:17 UTC
No games today. No KXWCGAME event carries a 26JUL13 game date (verified across all 102 events in the series, all statuses). July 13 is a rest day between the quarterfinals (July 10β11) and the semifinals: France vs Spain (KXWCGAME-26JUL14FRAESP, July 14) and England vs Argentina
No World Cup matches are scheduled for 2026-07-12 β it is a rest day between the quarterfinals and the semifinals. Verified against the full Kalshi KXWCGAME series (102 events, all statuses): zero event tickers dated 26JUL12.
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens Β· kickoff 21:00 UTC (5pm ET) Β· pre-kickoff at research time (13:01 UTC) Β· event KXWCGAME-26JUL11NORENG
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-10 10:02 UTC
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (climate-controlled, fixed ETFE canopy) Β· Kickoff 2026-07-10 19:00 UTC (12:00 PT) Β· Event KXWCGAME-26JUL10ESPBEL Β· Regulation-time moneyline
v3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets (Jul 9, 2026): 2 picks β ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Trump's signature, and a capped Hormuz PortWatch lottery β plus 12 logged rejects in a whipsawed, efficient week.
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01 Β· NO Β· signal #191 Β· source audit 2026-07-01 Β· closes 2026-08-01
KXWCGAME-26JUL09FRAMAR Β· Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA Β· Kickoff 20:00 UTC (4:00 PM ET) Β· Assessed 13:00 UTC β pre-kickoff (~7h) Β· Conditions: sunny, 88β90Β°F, light wind, open-air
v3.1 audit of Kalshi Economics markets, 2026-07-08: 42 liquid markets screened, 16 diligenced, 3 picks β all on the July 14 CPI print β $115.81 of $1,000 deployed, 88% cash. A Stage-2.5 resolver check flipped the 'safest' candidate from near-lock to negative-EV.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-08 10:03 UTC
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit, 2026-07-07: 15 markets reviewed, 10 diligenced, zero picks cleared the v3 conviction/entry-band screens β 100% cash held. Full reject log with resolver profiles inside.
Kalshi AI-theme mispricing audit (v3 methodology, 2026-07-07): 3 picks (2 favorites + 1 capped lottery), $239 of $1,000 deployed, 14 logged rejects. GPT-5.6 GA timing, LMArena math race, and an 11:1 shot on the current #1 model.
Checked: VoteHub averages API (values, poll-answers) Β· Kalshi market + orderbook Β· press polling roundups ( Silver Bulletin )
BC Place, Vancouver Β· Kickoff 20:00 UTC (1pm PT), July 7 Β· Event KXWCGAME-26JUL07SUICOL Β· Researched & priced pre-match (~17:10β17:25 UTC)
Kalshi Politics audit (v3 methodology), Jul 6 2026: 274 markets screened, 15 diligenced, 4 picks β Trump-image passport (74Β’, already issuing), zero Mar-a-Lago July trips (91Β’), VoteHub approval floor (75Β’), Knesset dissolution (77Β’). $384 of $1,000 deployed, 62% cash.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit (v3 methodology), 2026-07-06: 47 liquid markets screened, 9 diligenced, 1 pick β Trump-image passport issuance reported before Jul 20 (YES @74Β’, model 84%). 93% cash held; 8 logged rejects.
2026-07-06 Β· 1 pick triggered Β· decision: 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-06 10:02 UTC
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL05-T200 Trigger: reversal Entry 27Β’ β peak 33Β’ β now 22Β’ (NO bid; YES 76 / 78) My P(NO): 8% vs ~22% implied Closes 2026-07-07
2026-07-03 Β· 2 positions triggered Β· 1 exit / 1 hold Β· run: 2026-07-01-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel ( audit report )
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-07-03 10:02 UTC
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, July 2, 2026 (v3 methodology): 290 markets screened, 8 candidates diligenced, zero picks deployed β every survivor failed the edge test or the conviction/entry-band screen. 100% cash. All 8 rejects logged for shadow-tracking.
v3 audit of Kalshi Politics markets, Jul 1-2 2026: 13 candidates diligenced, 4 picks (two Alito-retirement NO legs, EO-week NO, one labeled Hormuz lottery), 9 logged rejects, $211 of $1,000 deployed.
June 2026
Kalshi Politics β Mispricing Audit (ensemble) β multi-model ensemble consensus, 2026-06-29
Kalshi Science & Technology mispricing audit, 2026-06-26 (v3). Verdict: no deployable edge this week β an efficient, top-of-book-thin slate. 0 picks, 8 logged rejects, 100% cash held on a $1,000 book.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, 25 Jun 2026: one defensible structural pick (housing-bill enactment timing) and 17 logged rejects β an efficient slate dominated by a freshly-priced legislative standoff and imminent SCOTUS decisions.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets, Jun 24 2026. One defensible pick β Fed July HOLD, mispriced by an unrepriced oil crash β with ~93% held as cash. v3 conviction-weighted methodology.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Elections markets closing within 45 days. Verdict: an efficient/illiquid category β zero contracts clear the v3 conviction + entry-band screens. 0 picks, 10 logged rejects, 100% cash.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing by Aug 6, 2026. 3 defensible picks (Hegseth/Kash tenure, Hormuz transit recovery), 9 logged rejects, ~80% cash held in an event-dominated, efficient slate.
Kalshi Science & Technology mispricing audit, 19 Jun 2026: SpaceX's June launch cadence (9 flown in 19 days) leaves the upper tail of the monthly launch-count ladder under-priced. Two YES tail picks; everything else passes.
7 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 4 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-19 10:07 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets (June 18, 2026): 4 mispriced contracts β Clayton DNI confirmation, Powell staying on the Fed board, the CLARITY Act calendar, and a FISA 702 reauthorization standoff. With sources, sizing, and rejects.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets closing within 45 days (2026-06-17). Verdict: category is largely efficient; the one residual edge is gas β the market may have over-extrapolated the linear AAA price decline into late June. Two gas picks, modest sizing.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-17 10:02 UTC
Experimental v2 mispricing audit of Kalshi 2026 FIFA World Cup markets: 4 shadow-tracked picks with explicit probabilities, entry context and cluster-capped sizing across a $1,000 book.
Kalshi Elections mispricing audit, June 15 2026: one defensible thesis β the June 17 FOMC will hold but draw a dissent (priced ~36c, fair ~58%). Most of the category is too thin or efficiently priced to trade.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days. Three defensible picks: Gabbard out as DNI (YES), McConnell not leaving the Senate (NO), and Clayton's DNI confirmation timing (NO).
3 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 1 direct Kalshi matches, 1 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-15 10:05 UTC
5 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 3 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-12 10:05 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days: 3 defensible picks (Trump at the World Cup final, no near-term Iran nuclear deal, Hormuz traffic stays collapsed) from a 339-market screen, with a documented Gabbard definitional trap rejected.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets closing within 45 days. Two defensible AAA gas-price picks; the headline 'FOMC dissent' mispricing is shown to be a trap after the lone dissenter resigned.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-10 10:03 UTC
Kalshi AI mispricing audit (v2, 2026-06-09): the Claude Fable 5 launch repriced every AI leaderboard market in hours β 4 picks fading the hype, 6 logged rejects, $1,000 cluster-capped portfolio.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Elections markets closing within 45 days. 3 picks led by a high-conviction NO on Graham Platner dropping out of the Maine Senate race. Subjective probabilities; trades resolve to zero.
Kalshi Politics mispricing audit, 8 Jun 2026: 3 picks from a 322-market screen β fade the Trump-Mamdani 'meeting', buy Mamdani's weekly executive-order base rate, lean against a Starmer exit. $1,000 portfolio.
0 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 0 direct Kalshi matches, 0 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-08 10:02 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Economics markets closing within 45 days. One core edge (May CPI >4.2% NO vs the 4.18% Cleveland nowcast) plus one capped-downside gas lottery; the rest of the macro slate is efficiently priced.
4 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 β 2026-05-13 Β· 1 direct Kalshi matches, 2 proxy matches Β· prices snapshotted 2026-06-05 10:04 UTC
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days as of 2026-06-04: 4 modest-edge picks (crypto-bill NO, June tariff action YES, Senate reconciliation YES), liquidity-capped sizing, and a full rejection log.
Kalshi Economics mispricing audit, 3 Jun 2026: the big US macro ladders and the Brazil/Mexico/Fed rate markets screen as efficient; the only defensible edge is a low-conviction bet that the multi-week AAA gasoline decline doesn't fully stall by Jun 8.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Elections markets closing within 45 days: 43 markets screened, 7 worked up, 2 deployable edges β NO on DΓaz-Canel staying in office and NO on a clean June FOMC (no-change + zero-dissents) combo. $1,000 portfolio.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi Politics markets closing within 45 days (as of 2026-06-03). Two defensible picks survive adversarial review: BUY YES on June tariff action, BUY NO on Kennedy Center name removal. $1,000 portfolio.
May 2026
Deep-research audit of Kalshi politics markets, 2026-05-30: 14 candidates screened to 3 picks, all in the Strait of Hormuz weekly transit-call cluster, sized into a $1,000 book.
Deep-research audit of Kalshi politics markets closing within 45 days: 3 defensible NO picks (Senate reconciliation timing, Knesset dissolution, Starmer) with a $1,000 portfolio.
Retrospective scoring of every podcast prediction in the Kalmari database against settled Kalshi markets and post-publish price drift.
Audit of active Kalshi business markets (Companies + Financials) closing within 45 days, with six trade picks and a $10,000 portfolio sized around them.
33 predictions across 17 episodes (politics, sports, markets, tech), 25 direct + 8 proxy Kalshi matches. Each row shows the side to take to copy the speaker, with live prices.
12 predictions extracted; 1 direct + 2 proxy Polymarket/Manifold matches. Includes audio scrubber tied to timestamps.
Audit of the May 8 Hard Fork episode about US regulation of prediction markets, mapped to Polymarket + Manifold.
April 2026
Top 5 picks + $10,000 portfolio across politics & elections markets resolving by 2026-06-01. Trump-China trip, Kash Patel exit, DHS funding. $1,400 expected EV. (Reportedly +$2,000 realized.)