Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

No GPT-6 exists — the thesis held. But on Aug 1 OpenAI announced its next-gen model “Astra” (introduced via ten solved open problems in mathematics, not a launch), and has explicitly not decided whether it ships as GPT-6, a GPT-5 point release, or standalone Astra. There is no release date, pricing, or model card, and a reported ~30-day federal pre-release review makes September the earliest plausible public window — so a qualifying public release named “GPT-6 or greater” inside 16 days stays ~4%. That said, the naming/timing tail the original audit priced at 1–2pts is now live and entirely at OpenAI's discretion. Edge over the market is gone and 16 days exceeds the ~7-day capital_free hold window: take +19¢ of a +25¢ max. Liquidity: top NO bid is thin (0.25 @ 94¢, then 21 @ 93¢, 215 @ 91¢) — real size exits ≈91–93¢, still a clear take.

Thesis intact: Hegseth is actively serving — congressional letters of Aug 4 (House Oversight) and Aug 12 (Sen. Blumenthal) address him as sitting Secretary, and there is no reporting of Trump wavering, a successor shortlist, or an investigation at a decision point. Democratic pressure continues (Signal IG report, Iran-casualties cover-up allegations) but predates entry and has never moved Trump. Remaining edge is ~1.6¢ over 16 days against an un-analyzable abrupt-firing tail in a mid-war administration — under the capital_free rule (≥95¢, close >7 days out) that isn't worth the lock-up. Exit at 95.4¢ into a deep book, +3.4¢ on entry.