# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-08-16

Date: 2026-08-16
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-16-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-16 · 2 positions triggered · both capital_free (≥95¢) · decisions: 2 exit / 0 hold

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?
KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01

NO
capital_free
thesis: intact
EXIT @ 94¢

entry 75¢
now 94¢ (yes 2/6)
peak 95.5¢
my prob 96% vs implied ~96%
closes Sep 1 (16d)

    No GPT-6 exists — the thesis held. But on Aug 1 OpenAI announced its next-gen model
    “Astra” (introduced via ten solved open problems in mathematics, not a launch), and has
    explicitly not decided whether it ships as
    GPT-6, a GPT-5 point release, or standalone Astra. There is
    no release date, pricing, or model card, and a
    reported ~30-day federal pre-release review makes September the earliest plausible public window — so a
    qualifying public release named “GPT-6 or greater” inside 16 days stays ~4%. That said, the naming/timing
    tail the original audit priced at 1–2pts is now live and entirely at OpenAI's discretion. Edge over
    the market is gone and 16 days exceeds the ~7-day capital_free hold window: take +19¢ of a +25¢ max.
    Liquidity: top NO bid is thin (0.25 @ 94¢, then 21 @ 93¢, 215 @ 91¢) — real size exits ≈91–93¢, still a clear take.
  
signal 635 · 2026-07-21-kalshi-ai-mispricing-audit · placed 2026-07-21

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026?
KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01

NO
capital_free
thesis: intact
EXIT @ 95.4¢

entry 92¢
now 95.4¢ (yes 4.5/4.6)
peak 96.5¢
my prob 97% vs implied 95.5%
closes Sep 1 (16d)

    Thesis intact: Hegseth is actively serving — congressional letters of
    Aug 4 (House Oversight) and
    Aug 12 (Sen. Blumenthal)
    address him as sitting Secretary, and there is no reporting of Trump wavering, a successor shortlist, or an
    investigation at a decision point. Democratic pressure continues (Signal IG report,
    Iran-casualties cover-up allegations)
    but predates entry and has never moved Trump. Remaining edge is ~1.6¢ over 16 days against an
    un-analyzable abrupt-firing tail in a mid-war administration — under the capital_free rule (≥95¢, close
    >7 days out) that isn't worth the lock-up. Exit at 95.4¢ into a deep book, +3.4¢ on entry.
  
signal 737 · 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · placed 2026-07-27

  Sentinel desk log · quotes fetched live from Kalshi trade-api at review time · exits are recommendations at best-bid for our side; see liquidity notes for realizable size.