# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Sentinel, managed) — 2026-08-17

Date: 2026-08-17
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-17-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit

Sentinel (managed) · Report date 2026-08-17 · Horizon 45 days (to Oct 1) · Capital $1,000 · Methodology **v3.3** (conviction-weighted sizing, entry-band screen, 15% cluster cap, EV-agnostic sizing, resolver risk pricing, no sub-35¢ tails, no LOW deployment)

## 1. How this was researched

**Mode: category-match.** `trading_events.category = 'Politics'` matched 374 active markets closing before Oct 1, 2026 — no theme-search needed. Pipeline:

- **Stage 1 filter** — live top-of-book and 24h volume fetched from the Kalshi public API for all 374 tickers. Hard cuts: 24h volume < 1,500, bid-ask spread > 5¢, fully priced (bid ≥ 95¢ / ask ≤ 5¢), announcer-noise markets (the entire Truth Social post-count ladder, endorsement counts), and the 8 contracts already live in users' feeds from prior runs. **Only 5 markets survived the strict screen** — Politics is efficient this week. Five near-threshold markets (24h volume 500–1,500 but 1–2¢ spreads and 15k–84k open interest) were carried into Stage-2 diligence for the record, flagged that they cannot deploy capital under the volume rule.
- **Stage 2 diligence** — resolution rules pulled from the DB mirror; 14-day daily price history from `market_snapshots`; live order books; primary-source news (CNN live coverage, CoinDesk, Brennan Center, Breaking Defense, National Archives public-law list, IMF PortWatch reporting).
- **Stage 2.5 resolver pricing** — every probability below is a forecast of the named resolver's verdict at resolution time, with resolver risks deducted as explicit points (shown per pick).
- **Stages 3–4** — rejects logged and shadow-tracked; conviction tiers set by defensibility (never by EV); sizes set by tier caps (HIGH ≤ $150, MEDIUM ≤ $70) and the 15%-per-cluster cap.

Bottom line: 3 picks, $368.89 deployed (36.9%), $631.11 held as cash. All three are NO-side favorites at 69–92¢ effective entry. Seven Stage-2 candidates were rejected and logged. No coin-flips, no tails, no LOW-tier capital — per v3.3.

## 2. Markets reviewed

| Ticker | Question | Bid/Ask (YES) | 24h vol | OI | Outcome of review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001 | Hormuz 7-day avg transits >60 before Oct 1 (PortWatch) | 8 / 9 | 18,972 | 898,785 | PICK 1 — BUY NO @ 92¢ |
| KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT | Crypto market-structure bill law before Oct 1 | 9 / 10 | 4,711 | 149,216 | PICK 2 — BUY NO @ 91¢ |
| KXFISAEXTEND-26JUN-26OCT01 | FISA §702 reauth becomes law before Oct 1 | 31 / 33 | 2,440 | 22,062 | PICK 3 — BUY NO @ 69¢ |
| KXBILLSCOUNT-26AUG-0.0 | Exactly 0 bills become law in Aug 2026 | 88 / 91 | 12,624 | 17,554 | REJECT — thesis already priced (47→91 in 72h) |
| KXXIUSA-26JUL07-OCT01 | Xi Jinping visits the US before Oct 1 | 85 / 87 | 921 | 14,985 | REJECT — volume screen (would BUY YES) |
| KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-OCT01 | Senate recorded vote on CLARITY before Oct 1 | 88 / 89 | 657 | 39,212 | REJECT — volume screen |
| KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01 | Government shut down at 10am ET Oct 1 | 15 / 16 | 1,007 | 84,044 | REJECT — volume screen + no edge |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG21-38.9 | RCP approval in 38.8–39.0 band on Aug 21 | 22 / 23 | 1,782 | 5,016 | REJECT — no edge on a 0.3-pt poll band |
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3 | Exactly 3 Bedminster trips in Aug | 71 / 73 | 1,015 | 16,130 | REJECT — volume screen + schedule noise |
| KXEOWEEK-26AUG22-1 | >1 executive order Aug 16–22 | 37 / 38 | 792 | 605 | REJECT — volume screen + coin-flip band |

Also cut at Stage 1 without diligence: Truth Social post-count ladder (8 legs, announcer-noise), Hormuz weekly ladders (spreads 6–19¢), KXTRUMPMEET-JTHU (9¢ spread), and ~350 low-volume/fully-priced markets. Existing live picks (Hormuz Sep-1 leg, Crypto Sep leg, FISA Sep-1 leg, Hegseth, Pirro, Mar-a-Lago, election emergency, GPT-6) were excluded up front.

## 3. Picks — detail and thesis

### Pick 1 — KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001 · BUY NO @ 0.92 · HIGH CONVICTION

_"Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?"_

Market implies YES 8–9% → NO ≈ 91–92%
My probability (NO) 96% → +4¢ edge on a 92¢ entry
Entry band >90¢ deep favorite · Cluster hormuz-normalization

**Thesis.** The strait is functionally closed amid an active US–Iran war. Resolving YES requires a full peace deal _plus_ a physical shipping ramp — from ~1 transit/day to a _sustained_ 60+/day for a week — inside 44 days. The ramp time alone makes the tail nearly unreachable even if diplomacy breaks tomorrow.

Evidence

- PortWatch recorded **1 transit on Aug 9, 2026** against a pre-crisis baseline of ~73/day; traffic has been near zero since Iran blocked the strait after the Feb 28 air war began ([Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)).
- The June memorandum-of-understanding ceasefire **collapsed in July**; the US naval blockade was reimposed ([Wikipedia: 2026 Iran war ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire)).
- As of **Aug 12**, the IRGC declared the strait closed after firing warning shots, and the US launched further strikes ([CNN live, Aug 12](https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/world/live-news/iran-war-trump)); Oman-mediated talks continue but are hung up on Iran's demand for transit tolls the US calls unacceptable ([CNN live, Aug 4](https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/world/live-news/iran-war-trump)).
- Ramp math: even during the best ceasefire window, single-day traffic peaked at **28 transits** (July, per PortWatch — the print that settled KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31). A 7-day MA >60 needs more than double that best day, sustained for a week, implying insurers and carriers fully back — i.e., a signed, credible peace by roughly mid-September at the latest.

Resolver (Stage 2.5) IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average; first occurrence above 60 before Oct 1 (early close on trigger). Priced risks: −1 pt PortWatch data revisions (revision noise cannot manufacture a >60 MA from ~0), −1 pt counting-methodology change. Note PortWatch has historically printed lower than commercial trackers (the July KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ settlement printed 28 vs a tracker's 51) — that asymmetry favors NO here.
Tail risk (cleanest loss) A rapid September grand bargain — tolls dispute resolved, blockade lifted, insurers return immediately — with traffic overshooting the baseline on pent-up backlog. Pent-up ship queues could make the ramp faster than organic growth.
Numbers 163 contracts @ 92¢ = $149.96 cost · max payout $163.00 (+$13.04) · EV +4¢/contract (+4.3%) — recorded, not used for sizing
Liquidity at entry YES 8 bid / 9 ask · NO buyable at 92¢ against 1,523 contracts bid at YES 8 · 24h vol 18,972 · OI 898,785 · resting NO bids: 40k @ 91, 35k @ 90
Price history YES leg drifted 18¢ → 8¢ over the past 14 days on heavy volume (30–54k/day) as the July ceasefire collapse sank in — the market is moving toward this thesis, not away from it

### Pick 2 — KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT · BUY NO @ 0.91 · HIGH CONVICTION

_"Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Oct 1, 2026?"_

Market implies YES 9–10% → NO ≈ 90–91%
My probability (NO) 96% → +5¢ edge on a 91¢ entry
Entry band >90¢ deep favorite · Cluster crypto-market-structure

**Thesis.** The calendar is nearly mechanical: the Senate recessed Aug 8 without voting, reconvenes Sept 14, and holds its _first_ CLARITY floor vote Sept 15. Becoming _law_ by Sep 30 then requires cloture (60 votes with Democratic demands unresolved), an amendment process, final Senate passage, the House passing identical text, and a signature — in ~13 working days that are also consumed by the FY27 funding fight. The market's 9–10¢ still overpays for that path.

Evidence

- Senate **missed the pre-recess window** ([CoinDesk, Aug 6](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/06/senate-won-t-vote-on-crypto-clarity-act-before-its-summer-break)) and filed cloture on the motion to proceed on Aug 8, with the vote **scheduled Sept 15** ([CoinDesk, Aug 8](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/08/u-s-senate-opens-first-stage-of-crypto-clarity-act-voting-to-give-bill-a-chance-next-month)).
- Democrat-Republican disagreement over ethics, conflict-of-interest and illicit-finance safeguards remains unresolved; trade press frames even **2026 passage as fading** ([Bitcoin Foundation](https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/congress-crypto-bill-delay-clarity-act-vote-pushed-to-september-as-2026-passage-hopes-fade/), [CoinDesk scenarios, Aug 5](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/05/here-are-the-possible-outcomes-for-clarity-right-now)).
- The House-passed CLARITY text (July 2025) differs from the Senate working text, so House concurrence is a real step, not a formality ([Latham & Watkins crypto policy tracker](https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker/legislative-developments)).
- Market corroboration: the sister market on a Senate _vote_ before Oct 1 trades at 88–89¢ while _law_ before Oct 1 trades at 9–10¢ — the book itself prices the vote-to-law gap; my claim is only that 9–10¢ is still a couple of points too high.

Resolver (Stage 2.5) "A crypto market structure bill has become law" — any vehicle qualifies, not just CLARITY. Priced risks: −1 pt market-structure rider attached to a September must-pass (no such rider is in either CR version today), −1 pt Kalshi discretion on what counts as "market structure." Deductions total 2 pts — well under the 15-pt screen.
Tail risk (cleanest loss) Cloture succeeds with a big bipartisan margin on Sept 15, the Senate passes it that week under a time agreement, and the House swallows the Senate text whole before Sep 30 under industry pressure.
Numbers 164 contracts @ 91¢ = $149.24 cost · max payout $164.00 (+$14.76) · EV +5¢/contract (+5.5%) — recorded, not used for sizing
Liquidity at entry YES 9 bid / 10 ask · NO buyable at 91¢ against 638 contracts bid at YES 9 · 24h vol 4,711 · OI 149,216 · resting NO bids: 9.5k @ 90, 15k @ 87
Price history YES leg 7–10¢ range for two weeks (brief spike to 15 on Aug 9–10 around the cloture filing, faded back); no adverse 48h move against the entry

### Pick 3 — KXFISAEXTEND-26JUN-26OCT01 · BUY NO @ 0.69 · MEDIUM CONVICTION

_"Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Oct 1, 2026?"_

Market implies YES 31–33% → NO ≈ 67–69%
My probability (NO) 80% → +11¢ edge on a 69¢ entry
Entry band 60–90¢ favorite · Cluster fisa-reauth

**Thesis.** Section 702 already lapsed in mid-June and Congress has lived with the lapse for two months — the forcing deadline came and went. The House has repeatedly failed to even pass a rule amid the warrant-requirement fight, and the September floor is owned by appropriations (plus CLARITY in the Senate). The market's ~32% for a reauth becoming law in ~13 September working days overrates a negotiation that has produced nothing since April.

Evidence

- RISAA's two-year extension sunset April 20, 2026; Congress passed only a **45-day patch on April 30** ([CNBC, Apr 30](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/fisa-section-702-congress-extension.html); [Holland & Knight](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/congress-poised-to-consider-fisa-extension-in-april)).
- As of mid-June the authority **lapsed with no agreement**, and it has stayed lapsed ([Brennan Center 2026 resource page](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page)).
- House Republicans lack the votes for a rule; Democratic leaders oppose procedural votes despite bipartisan support for the underlying program ([Wiley](https://www.wileyconnect.com/congress-again-approaches-deadline-for-extending-fisa-702-authorities-creating-uncertainty-for-communications-providers)).
- Urgency is muted: under RISAA's transition provisions, existing 702 certifications continue operating despite the statutory lapse, so the intelligence community is not dark — which is exactly why two months of lapse produced no deal.
- Price corroboration: this market has bled 47¢ → 33¢ over two weeks of no progress; the already-live Sep-1 leg sits at ~5¢.

Resolver (Stage 2.5) "Legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law" — no duration floor, so a short-term extension almost certainly counts (the April 45-day patch settled earlier legs of this series YES). Priced risks: −5 pts a stopgap extension counts as reauth, −3 pts a 702 rider attached to the September CR (neither current CR version carries one, but conference could add it). Raw evidence-based NO ≈ 88 − 8 = 80. Deductions total 8 pts — under the 15-pt screen, but this is why the tier is MEDIUM, not HIGH.
Tail risk (cleanest loss) The September CR conference attaches a short 702 extension as a sweetener for national-security hawks and it's signed before Sep 30 — one sentence in a must-pass bill flips this market.
Numbers 101 contracts @ 69¢ = $69.69 cost · max payout $101.00 (+$31.31) · EV +11¢/contract (+15.9%) — recorded, not used for sizing
Liquidity at entry YES 31 bid / 33 ask · NO buyable at 69¢ against 113 contracts bid at YES 31 (next: 1,000 at YES 30 → NO 70¢) · 24h vol 2,440 · OI 22,062 — the 101-contract order fits inside top-of-book but leaves little room; do not chase past 70¢
Price history YES leg fell 47¢ → 33¢ over 14 days (biggest step Aug 12, 45→31 on modest volume); the drift is toward this thesis — entry is later than ideal but the residual 11¢ vs model is still the widest defensible edge on the slate

## 4. Recommended $1,000 portfolio

| Pick | Action | Limit | Contracts | Cost | % cap | Tier / band (sets size) | Max payout | EV¢ | EV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001 | BUY NO | 92 | 163 | $149.96 | 15.0% | HIGH · deep favorite | $163.00 | +4 | 4.3% |
| KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-OCT | BUY NO | 91 | 164 | $149.24 | 14.9% | HIGH · deep favorite | $164.00 | +5 | 5.5% |
| KXFISAEXTEND-26JUN-26OCT01 | BUY NO | 69 | 101 | $69.69 | 7.0% | MEDIUM · favorite | $101.00 | +11 | 15.9% |
| Total deployed |  |  | 428 | **$368.89** | **36.9%** |  | **$428.00** |  |  |
| Cash held | **$631.11 (63.1%)** — cash is a position; the category is efficient this week |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

**Sizing note (v3):** EV¢/EV% are recorded for calibration only and did not drive contract counts. Sizes come from conviction caps (HIGH ≤ $150, MEDIUM ≤ $70) and the 15% cluster cap. Blended EV on deployed capital: +$25.83 (+7.0% of deployed, +2.6% of total capital).

### Cluster exposure (cap 15% = $150 per cluster)

| Cluster | Picks | Cost | % of capital | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hormuz-normalization | Pick 1 | $149.96 | 15.0% | 15% |
| crypto-market-structure | Pick 2 | $149.24 | 14.9% | 15% |
| fisa-reauth | Pick 3 | $69.69 | 7.0% | 15% |

The three theses are genuinely independent (Gulf war logistics; crypto legislation; surveillance legislation). Note for portfolio-level context: prior audit runs already hold NO on the _September_ legs of all three series (listed as existing picks) — within this run's capital the caps are respected, but a reader copying multiple runs should know the Oct legs correlate ~1 with their Sep siblings _only_ in the direction that the Sep legs win first.

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Picks | Cost | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 2 | $299.20 | 29.9% |
| MEDIUM | 1 | $69.69 | 7.0% |
| LOW | 0 | $0.00 | 0% (never deploys, v3.3) |

### Risk profile

- **Most likely outcome** (~74% joint, treating picks as independent): all three NOs hold → **+$59.11** (+5.9% of capital, +16.0% of deployed) by Oct 1.
- **Most plausible single loss:** FISA rides the September CR → −$69.69 on Pick 3, +$27.80 on Picks 1–2 = net **−$41.89**. This is the scenario to watch.
- **Worst case** (requires a September grand bargain with Iran _and_ crypto law _and_ FISA law — jointly <0.1%): −$368.89. No single cluster can flip the book by more than $150.
- **Concentration:** two of three picks are >90¢ deep favorites where edge is structurally thin (+4/+5¢); the book's return profile is many-small-wins / rare-moderate-loss, which is exactly the profile the resolved v1/v2 record rewarded.

### Execution notes

- **Pick 1 (Hormuz):** Take the 92¢ NO ask (1,523 contracts available). Do not join the 40k-contract queue at 91 — fill probability is near zero. Invalidation trigger: any signed US–Iran agreement that lifts the blockade — exit immediately if PortWatch daily transits print >30 twice in a week (that pace, sustained, reaches MA>60 in ~2–3 weeks).
- **Pick 2 (Crypto):** Take 91¢ for the first ~600 contracts; our 164 fit easily. Invalidation: cloture passes Sept 15 with 70+ votes _and_ House leadership signals it will take the Senate text unchanged.
- **Pick 3 (FISA):** Limit 69¢, size 101 vs 113 visible — if only partially filled, do not chase past 70¢ (edge at 70 is still +10¢ but the book is telling you something if the 1,000-lot at NO 70 pulls). Invalidation: any CR conference text that includes 702 language — exit at market on that headline.
- **Watchlist:** KXXIUSA-26JUL07-OCT01 YES @ ≤87 becomes a valid HIGH-tier pick if 24h volume re-crosses 1,500 (it printed 2,400–3,700 on Aug 15–16); the Sept 24 visit is confirmed by both governments. KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-OCT01 YES likewise on a volume recovery.

## 5. What I rejected and why

All seven Stage-2 survivors below are machine-logged in `picks.json` and shadow-tracked to settlement — if the rejects outperform the picks, the screen adds nothing and we want to know.

| Ticker | Would-be side | Price | My prob | Reject reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXBILLSCOUNT-26AUG-0.0 | YES | 91 | 95 | The thesis (recess + unreconciled CR + latest public law Jul 12 = zero August signings) is right — but the market repriced 47→91 in 72h on exactly this reasoning, and the real fillable ask is 93¢ (0.01 contracts rest at 91). ≤2¢ residual edge fails the 48h-move and 3¢-slippage screens. |
| KXXIUSA-26JUL07-OCT01 | YES | 87 | 92 | Fails the Stage-1 volume screen (921 < 1,500 24h). Otherwise the best YES on the board: Xi's White House visit is set for Sept 24 per Trump, with Rubio confirming advance teams (Globe & Mail, Bloomberg). Watchlist — see execution notes. |
| KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-OCT01 | YES | 89 | 93 | Volume screen (657). Cloture vote is calendared Sept 15 and "any recorded vote" counts, but a pulled vote could slip past Oct 1 with only 2 weeks of slack. |
| KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01 | NO | 85 | 84 | Volume screen (1,007) and, more honestly, no edge: with a 90-6 Senate CR and a House CR passed pre-recess (versions differ only in end-date and anomalies, per Breaking Defense), 15–16¢ YES looks fairly priced for conference risk. Model ≈ market. |
| KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG21-38.9 | NO | 78 | — | A 0.3-point RCP band resolving off a snapshot at 11am Aug 21. No informational edge over poll-watchers; poll add/drop timing at the aggregator is an unpriceable resolver risk (Stage-2.5 screen); the leg moved 22→34 intraday today. |
| KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3 | — | 73 | — | Volume screen (1,015) + exact-count schedule noise: the leg whipsawed 86→29→74 in 72h (Aug 14–16). No defensible forecast of two remaining August weekends. |
| KXEOWEEK-26AUG22-1 | YES | 38 | — | **Entry-band screen cut:** 38¢ is the 35–60¢ coin-flip band, which requires HIGH conviction + ≥15¢ modeled edge; an unverified base-rate lean on weekly EO cadence is nowhere near that bar. Also fails volume (792) with OI of just 605. |

Entry-band discipline this run: one coin-flip cut (KXEOWEEK), zero sub-35¢ tails considered (the 22¢ approval-band YES was never a candidate side), zero LOW-tier deployments.

## 6. Sources

- [Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis) (PortWatch transit counts: 1 on Aug 9 vs ~73 baseline)
- [Wikipedia — 2026 Iran war ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire) (June MOU collapse, blockade reimposed)
- [CNN live coverage, Aug 12, 2026](https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/world/live-news/iran-war-trump) (IRGC closure declaration, US strikes)
- [CNN live coverage, Aug 4, 2026](https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/world/live-news/iran-war-trump) (Oman-mediated talks, tolls dispute)
- [IMF PortWatch — chokepoint event page](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cc317ba850e34c4dadbead6f7b336fb1) (resolution source, Pick 1)
- [CoinDesk, Aug 8, 2026 — Senate opens first stage of CLARITY voting](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/08/u-s-senate-opens-first-stage-of-crypto-clarity-act-voting-to-give-bill-a-chance-next-month)
- [CoinDesk, Aug 6, 2026 — no CLARITY vote before summer break](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/06/senate-won-t-vote-on-crypto-clarity-act-before-its-summer-break)
- [CoinDesk, Aug 5, 2026 — CLARITY scenarios](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/05/here-are-the-possible-outcomes-for-clarity-right-now)
- [Bitcoin Foundation — CLARITY vote pushed to September](https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/congress-crypto-bill-delay-clarity-act-vote-pushed-to-september-as-2026-passage-hopes-fade/)
- [Latham & Watkins — US Crypto Policy Tracker](https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker/legislative-developments)
- [CNBC, Apr 30, 2026 — Congress passes short-term 702 extension](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/fisa-section-702-congress-extension.html)
- [Brennan Center — Section 702: 2026 resource page](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page) (mid-June lapse)
- [Holland & Knight — Congress poised to consider FISA extension](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/congress-poised-to-consider-fisa-extension-in-april)
- [Wiley — 702 deadline dynamics and House rule failures](https://www.wileyconnect.com/congress-again-approaches-deadline-for-extending-fisa-702-authorities-creating-uncertainty-for-communications-providers)
- [National Archives — Public laws, current session](https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/laws/current.html) (latest: PL 119-102, Jul 12, 2026)
- [Breaking Defense, Aug 2026 — Senate passes stopgap 90-6](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/08/senate-passes-stopgap-funding-bill/) (CR versions unreconciled; Dec 11 vs Dec 4)
- [Globe & Mail — Xi to visit US Sept 24, Trump says](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-china-president-xi-jinping-us-visit-trump-ai/)
- [Bloomberg, Jul 20, 2026 — Rubio: Xi still set to visit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-20/rubio-says-china-s-xi-still-set-to-visit-us-after-trump-speech)

**Data sources:** Kalshi live market mirror (read-only SQL over `trading_events`, `trading_markets`, `market_snapshots`), Kalshi public trade API (live order books, 24h volume, open interest, captured 2026-08-17), and the primary sources linked above. Methodology v3.3 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic sizing; 60–90¢ favorite bias; hard reject of sub-35¢ tails and LOW-tier deployment; 15% cluster cap; Stage-2.5 resolver risk pricing).

**Disclaimer:** All probabilities are subjective estimates by an automated research process. Prediction-market contracts can and do resolve to zero; edge estimates are uncertain and historically the process's own EV estimates have been anti-predictive, which is why they do not drive sizing. This report is a research artifact for a tracked public record, not financial advice.