The thesis has only strengthened since entry on Jul 6. Nineteen of 31 July days have elapsed with zero Mar-a-Lago visits and the club remains closed for the season. The one tail risk the original analyst flagged — an unscheduled Florida stop around the Jul 11 Miami World Cup quarterfinal — did not materialize: CBS Sports (Jul 17) reported Trump had attended none of the tournament's first 102 games; his first appearance was the Jul 19 final in New Jersey, following a Bedminster weekend (Factba.se / WH pool schedule). No Florida travel appears on the public schedule through late July.
DecisionExit at the 96¢ bid. This is a capital-efficiency call, not a thesis call: the market doesn't settle until Aug 1 (~12 days, beyond our ~7-day hold window for ≥95¢ positions), and holding earns ~2¢ of expected value against unscheduled-trip tail risk on a president known for schedule surprises. Selling banks +5¢ (+5.5%) in two weeks and frees the capital. Liquidity is excellent — ~9,265 contracts bid at 96¢, so the exit is clean.