One position woke the desk: the crypto market-structure NO tripped capital_free at 96.5¢ mid. Thesis re-checked against live reporting — intact, but the position has nothing left to earn relative to five weeks of locked capital.
The thesis has strengthened, not weakened. Majority Leader Thune said on Jul 23 he expects CLARITY to miss the pre-recess window (“I would like to at least get Clarity started. We'll see where the votes are”). Republicans hold roughly 50 of the 60 votes needed for cloture, and the seven negotiating Democrats say the Jul 22 merged Lummis text still “falls short” on ethics and consumer protection. With the House out until Aug 31, even a surprise Senate pass in the first week of August leaves no realistic path to a signed law before Sep 1. Galaxy Research cut full-year 2026 passage odds to 30% on Jul 24 — and this market needs it done in five weeks.
Why exit anyway: NO bids 96¢. Riding 37 more days for the last 4¢ locks capital through a period where the only early-close path is the outcome that zeroes us. Per the capital-free rule and the “would we open this today?” test, we take the 96¢ and bank +13¢.