Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-06-25 · Horizon 45 days · Capital $10,000 · Methodology v3 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic sizing) · Picks count toward the public track record and are cleared for auto-copy.

Bottom line. This was an efficient week for Politics. The two biggest themes in the window — the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act enactment timeline and three imminent Supreme Court decisions — are either freshly and correctly priced on heavy volume (<48h ago) or carry no information edge over a market reading the same live feeds. After full diligence I deploy one pick and hold 94% cash. The single pick rides a mechanical timing constraint (the constitutional 10-day presentment clock), not a forecast of anyone's behaviour.

1 · How this was researched

Selection mode: category-match. $CATEGORY = Politics matched 386 active markets in trading_events.category = 'Politics' closing before 2026-08-09. No theme/keyword fallback was needed.

Stage 1 — mechanical filter. From the 386 I cut everything with 24h volume < 1,500, bid-ask spread > 5¢, YES bid ≥ 95¢ / ask ≤ 5¢, and every ticker already live in users' feeds (98 existing picks excluded up front). That left 18 candidates.

Stage 2 — diligence. For each survivor I pulled the resolution rules text, a 14-day intraday history from market_snapshots, the live Kalshi orderbook (top-of-book + fillable depth), and primary-source news (Congress.gov, the White House, SCOTUSblog, wire services).

Stage 3 / 3.5 — reject + entry-band screen. Each candidate was tested for definitional traps, public-information-only edge, a price that already moved on the thesis in 48h, and fillability without ≥3¢ slippage; then gated by conviction tier and effective entry band. 17 of 18 candidates were rejected — logged and shadow-tracked below.

Data: read-only Kalshi mirror (trading_events, trading_markets, market_snapshots) + Kalshi public orderbook API + web research. Prices are cents (0–100). All trades resolve to $0 or $1.

2 · Markets reviewed

18 candidates surviving the Stage-1 mechanical filter. "Side" = the side I'd take if I took one. Prices are live YES top-of-book at pick time (25 Jun).

Ticker	Market	YES bid/ask	24h vol	Side	Verdict
KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26	Housing bill becomes law before Jul 1	31 / 34	40,152	NO	PICK · MED
KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26	Housing bill becomes law before Aug 1	87 / 91	58,078	YES	reject
KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL16	Housing bill becomes law before Jul 16	62 / 64	2,745	YES	reject
KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL07	Housing bill becomes law before Jul 7	45 / 47	4,800	YES	reject
KXWATSONRNC	SCOTUS bars late-arriving mail ballots	79 / 80	7,178	YES	reject
KXHAITITPS-26AUG	SCOTUS lets Trump end Haiti TPS (Miot)	70 / 76	5,608	YES	reject
KXCHATRIEUSA-26AUG	SCOTUS rules geofence warrant unlawful	23 / 25	1,783	NO	reject
KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-2	Trump signs >2 EOs Jun 21–27	52 / 54	4,963	NO	reject
KXDEFAPPROP-JUL24	DoD supplemental passes House before Jul 24	30 / 31	2,051	NO	reject
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL30	Max daily Hormuz transit ≥30 in June	94 / 97	16,307	YES	reject
KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-6.0	Exactly 6 bills signed in June	37 / 41	2,143	YES	reject
KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-5.0	Exactly 5 bills signed in June	23 / 28	5,242	YES	reject
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-2	Trump attends ≥2 World Cup matches	33 / 36	1,945	YES	reject
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-3	Trump attends ≥3 World Cup matches	10 / 11	3,381	YES	reject
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B169	Trump 160–179 Truth posts (wk Jun 21)	13 / 14	3,860	YES	reject
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-T220	Trump >220 Truth posts (wk Jun 21)	13 / 14	3,547	YES	reject
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL24	Fable 5 US access restored before Jul 24	84 / 86	1,736	YES	reject
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL31	Fable 5 US access restored before Jul 31	90 / 91	7,762	YES	reject

3 · The pick

KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26 · BUY NO @ 0.71 Medium conviction Favorite band · 71¢

"Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before Jul 1, 2026?" — taking NO (it will not be law by Jul 1).

My probability (NO wins)

88%

Market implied (NO)

~70% (YES bid/ask 31 / 34 → NO ≈ 69–71)

Edge

+17–18¢ / contract (for the record only — did not set size)

Cluster

housing-bill-timing

My NO 88%

12%

vs market NO ≈ 70% / YES ≈ 30%.

Mispricing thesis. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) — which caps/penalizes large institutional-investor purchases of single-family homes — passed both chambers this week (Senate 85-5 on Jun 22, House 358-32 on Jun 23) and now awaits the President. On Jun 24 Trump publicly cancelled the signing ceremony, saying he won't sign until Congress passes the SAVE America Act (voter-ID), which itself lacks the votes. The market correctly crashed the "before-Jul-1" leg from ~98¢ to ~30¢ on 40k+ volume. But ~30¢ YES still over-prices the only path to enactment by Jul 1:

The 10-day presentment clock cannot get there. A bill becomes law without signature 10 days (Sundays excepted) after presentment, if Congress is in session. Even assuming presentment on Jun 23, that clock lands ~Jul 7–8 — after Jul 1. So automatic enactment is mechanically impossible before Jul 1.
A veto override can't get there either. No veto has issued; a veto + re-votes in both chambers cannot complete in 6 days.
That leaves only a voluntary Trump signature in the next 6 days — which he very publicly refused on Jun 24, conditioning it on a bill that can't pass. YES-by-Jul-1 collapses to P(Trump reverses a fresh public stance within 6 days). I put that at ~12%.

Cleanest way this loses: Trump is a deal-maker and abruptly trades the signature for a partial win (or just signs to claim the popular housing bill) before Jul 1. A single Truth Social post + signing event resolves YES. That single discretionary act is exactly why this is Medium, not High, conviction.

Why NO and not the later legs: the same presentment math makes the Jul 16 and Aug 1 legs likely-YES, but those hinge on an unconfirmed presentment date and on Congress not handing Trump a pocket-veto window — and they already moved on the news. The Jul 1 leg is the one where the mechanics give a hard floor regardless of presentment timing. See rejects.

Limit / entry

BUY NO @ 0.71 (live NO ≈ 0.69–0.71; effective entry 71¢ → favorite band)

Size

850 contracts · cost $603.50 (6.0% of capital) — under the 7% Medium-tier cap

Max payout

$850.00 · profit if NO wins +$246.50

EV (record only)

+17¢/contract → +$144.50 · EV% ≈ 24% (EV did not drive sizing)

Liquidity (entry context)

YES bid 31 / ask 34 · NO fillable depth ≤71¢ ≈ 1,055 contracts (YES bids 31×32, 30×72, 29×951) · 24h vol 40,152 · OI 21,949 · slippage to fill 850 ≈ 2¢

Price history

Jun 11 ~31¢ → spiked to 98¢ on Jun 23 (Senate/House passage) → crashed to ~29¢ on Jun 24 (Trump cancels signing) on 39k volume; trading 22–38¢ today.

2026-07-01 03:59 UTC

4 · Recommended $10,000 portfolio

One pick deployed; the rest of the book is cash. In an efficient week, cash is the correct position — padding the slate with coin-flips and tails is precisely what the resolved v1/v2 record punished.

Pick	Action	Limit	Contracts	Cost	% cap	Max payout	EV $	Conviction	Cluster
KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26	BUY NO	0.71	850	$603.50	6.0%	$850.00	+144.50	Medium	`housing-bill-timing`
Total deployed				$603.50	6.0%	$850.00	+144.50
Cash reserve				$9,396.50	94.0%

Blended deployed EV ≈ +24% on capital at risk · dollar edge ≈ +$144.50. Figures are for the calibration record; sizing was set by conviction tier + entry band only.

Cluster exposure

Cluster	Cost	% of capital	Cap (15%)	OK?
`housing-bill-timing`	$603.50	6.0%	$1,500	✓ well under

No single underlying thesis can flip the run's sign. Every correlated leg of the housing bill (Jul 7 / Jul 16 / Aug 1) was rejected, so the cluster carries only this one position.

Conviction exposure

Tier	Cost deployed	% of capital	Per-pick cap
High	$0.00	0.0%	15%
Medium	$603.50	6.0%	7%
Low	$0.00	0.0%	3%

Risk profile

Worst case: Trump signs (or the bill otherwise becomes law) before Jul 1 → lose $603.50.
Best / most-likely case: No enactment by Jul 1 → NO resolves → +$246.50 (~88% probability).
Concentration: single position, single thesis, 6.0% at risk; 94% cash. No correlation across the book.

Execution notes

Limit discipline: rest a NO buy at 0.71 (≡ sell-YES at 0.29). Depth supports the full 850 ≤71¢; do not chase above 0.72 — the residual edge is ~17¢ and disappears with slippage.
Invalidation / exit: any credible signal Trump will sign before Jul 1 — a scheduled signing, a SAVE-Act/housing deal, or a Truth Social reversal — kills the thesis; close immediately. Confirmation of presentment doesn't matter for this leg (the 10-day clock can't reach Jul 1 regardless).
Watchlist (not deployed): KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26 YES — if it drifts below ~0.84 it becomes a cheap structural buy (veto-proof margins + 10-day clock make Aug-1 enactment ~90%). KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL16 YES — buy only if the enrolled bill's presentment date is publicly confirmed before ~Jul 4.
Hedge: none needed at 6% exposure.

5 · What I rejected and why

Every Stage-2 survivor that didn't make the cut is logged and shadow-tracked to settlement — if the rejects beat the pick, the screen adds nothing, and that is itself a finding. Entry-band cuts (coin-flips 35–60¢ and tails <35¢) are flagged so the discipline is visible.

Ticker	Side	Price	My p%	Band	Why rejected
KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26	YES	89	91	deep fav	~1–2¢ edge, fair post-news; repriced on 58k vol <48h ago.
KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL16	YES	63	70	favorite	Leans YES via the 10-day clock, but hinges on an unconfirmed presentment date; freshly moved.
KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL07	YES	47	50	coin-flip	35–60¢ band, conviction not high; turns on the exact presentment date I can't pin down.
KXWATSONRNC	YES	79	78	favorite	No edge over market on an undecided SCOTUS case; opinion can drop any day (Jun 25 is an opinion day).
KXHAITITPS-26AUG	YES	73	70	favorite	Jun 16 "dismiss as improvidently granted" motion adds resolution risk; no edge; imminent decision.
KXCHATRIEUSA-26AUG	NO	76	73	favorite	Court reported "sharply divided"; no edge; decision imminent.
KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-2	NO	48	50	coin-flip	Only 2 EOs signed so far (both Jun 22); reaching ≥3 in 3 days is a true toss-up. No edge.
KXDEFAPPROP-JUL24	NO	69	70	favorite	No evidence of a specific DoD supplemental on the House calendar; low conviction, thin volume.
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL30	YES	95	98	deep fav	Thin edge; same underlying as already-published Hormuz picks (correlated).
KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-6.0	YES	39	30	coin-flip	Exact-count bucket; no defensible edge, noisy amid the signing standoff.
KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-5.0	YES	24	25	tail	Exact-count bucket (tail band); inherently low-edge.
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-2	YES	35	38	coin-flip	Coin-flip band & same cluster as published Trump-World-Cup picks (correlated).
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-3	YES	11	12	tail	Sub-35¢ tail; same cluster as published Trump-World-Cup picks.
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B169	YES	13	13	tail	Sub-35¢ tail, no lottery slot; post-count noise.
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-T220	YES	13	13	tail	Sub-35¢ tail; post-count noise.
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL24	YES	85	85	favorite	Same cluster as published FABLERESTORE picks (correlated); thin edge.
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL31	YES	90	90	deep fav	Same cluster as published FABLERESTORE picks; >90 deep favorite, no edge.

Pattern. 1 coin-flip-or-tail cut by the entry-band screen for every favorite cut for "no edge / freshly priced." The two dominant themes (housing-bill timing, SCOTUS OT2025) are efficient; the noise/count markets are un-edgeable. A 1-pick book is the honest answer here.

6 · Sources

NPR — Congress passes the largest housing affordability bill in decades — and Trump cancels the signing (Jun 23, 2026)
CNBC — Trump cancels signing of bipartisan housing bill (Jun 24, 2026)
TIME — Trump Says He Won't Sign Housing Bill Until SAVE Act Is Passed
Al Jazeera — Trump cancels housing bill signing, demands US voter ID law first (notes the 10-day presentment / veto-proof margins)
Congress.gov — H.R.6644 — 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, all actions
GovTrack — Senate Vote #182 on H.R. 6644 (Jun 22, 2026) · bill overview
Mayer Brown — Senate advances housing legislation with institutional-investor ban
SCOTUSblog — Watson v. RNC argument recap · Trump v. Miot · Chatrie v. United States · cases yet to be decided
Supreme Court (docket) — Miot motion to dismiss writ as improvidently granted (Jun 16, 2026)
Federal Register — 2026 Trump executive orders; White House — executive orders (2 signed in the Jun 21–27 window as of pick time)

Footnote. Data sources: read-only Kalshi data mirror (trading_events, trading_markets, market_snapshots), the Kalshi public orderbook API, and primary-source web research cited above. Probabilities are subjective estimates, not guarantees; prediction-market contracts resolve to $1 or $0, and a losing contract is a total loss of premium. This is research, not financial advice. v3 methodology: sizing is set by conviction tier and entry band only — edge_cents / ev_pct are recorded for calibration and do not drive position size.