# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-08-17

Date: 2026-08-17
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-17-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-17 · 3 triggered picks reviewed · 3 exits (all capital-free, theses intact)

All three positions tripped the ≥95¢ capital-free trigger. Every thesis re-verified as intact — these are winners being harvested, not saves. All three markets close Sep 1 (15 days out), past the ~7-day hold window; the remaining 1–3¢ isn't worth the lock-up and tail risk.

NO
Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · #718

Entry **92¢** → now **99¢** (peak 98.5 mark)
Live YES: 0 bid / 1 ask
capital_free
thesis intact
EXIT @ 99¢
new prob **99%**

The strait is effectively closed on day ~170 of the crisis: [PortWatch's latest print (Aug 9) shows 1 transit](https://straits.live/briefs/2026-08-09) against a 73/day pre-crisis baseline, with [~372 vessels holding off berth (Aug 13)](https://straits.live/briefs/2026-08-13). A 7dMA above 60 before Sep 1 is physically impossible from here. Exit is pure capital efficiency: 1¢ left over 15+ days, top-of-book NO bid is 99¢ × 5,000+ contracts (deep), and the market's listed expiration runs to Nov 30 — settlement could lock capital well past the close. Book +7¢.

run: 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit · audit report · closes 2026-09-01

NO
Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1 (duplicate line)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · #734

Entry **92¢** → now **99¢** (peak 98.5 mark)
Live YES: 0 bid / 1 ask
capital_free
thesis intact
EXIT @ 99¢
new prob **99%**

Same market and side as #718 from a sibling audit run; identical evidence and decision. Traffic is ~1% of normal and even the best ceasefire window never got the 7dMA past ~34 — normalization to >60 in two weeks cannot happen. The only residual risk is the data-artifact tail the original analyst priced at −2pts, which is exactly what we stop carrying by selling at 99¢. Exit; free the capital.

run: 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · audit report · closes 2026-09-01

YES
Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026
KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · #808

Entry **93¢** → now **97¢** (peak 97.5 mark)
Live YES: 97 bid / 98 ask
capital_free
thesis intact
EXIT @ 97¢
new prob **97%**

Zero Mar-a-Lago trips through Aug 16: the club is seasonally closed and Trump is running his usual Bedminster summer — [traveled there Aug 7](https://conservativedailynews.com/2026/08/president-donald-trumps-schedule-for-friday-august-7-2026/) and [again Aug 14](https://conservativedailynews.com/2026/08/president-donald-trumps-schedule-for-friday-august-14-2026/). The circulating "Palm Beach visit" and Mar-a-Lago shooting stories both date to February 2026, and [NOAA shows a below-normal season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season) with no near-term Florida threat. But 14 days of August remain, the hurricane/disaster-trip tail runs to month-end, and my ~97% equals what the 97¢ bid already implies — edge is gone. Exit at 97¢ into a 10,000+ contract bid; book +4¢.

run: 2026-08-03-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · audit report · closes 2026-09-01