2026-07-15 · category Entertainment · budget $1000
4 picks · $149 deployed of $1000 · 8 logged rejects
| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KXRT-ODY-95 |
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 69c | HIGH | 94.0% vs 69c edge 25.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
69 ($48) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 94 |
| Thesis: A current 98% score on 163 reviews makes a final score of at least 96 more likely than the book implies, but this information has just driven a very large move. Rationale: Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 96 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% from 163 reviews on July 15, giving a meaningful cushion above 95; the cleanest tail risk is a substantially less favorable wave of wide-release reviews before the snapshot. | ||||||
KXRT-ODY-94 |
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 86c | HIGH | 98.0% vs 86c edge 12.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
56 ($48) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 98 |
| Thesis: The live 98% score has a three-point cushion over the strict above-94 threshold, but the obvious information is no longer stale. Rationale: Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 95 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% from 163 reviews on July 15, making a fall below 95 unlikely; the cleanest tail risk is a materially harsher post-release review cohort. | ||||||
KXRT-ODY-93 |
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 93c | MEDIUM | 99.0% vs 93c edge 6.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
51 ($47) | · gpt-5.6-sol YES 99 |
| Thesis: The live 98% score has a four-point cushion over the strict above-93 threshold, making YES highly likely but recently repriced. Rationale: Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 94 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% from 163 reviews on July 15, so many additional rotten reviews would be needed to fail; the tail risk is a sharp wide-release critic reversal or score-methodology correction. | ||||||
KXRT-ODY-97 |
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? | YES @ 13c | LOW | 15.0% vs 13c edge 2.0c · spread 0.0 · 1/1 agree |
42 ($5) | · gpt-5.6-sol NO 85 |
| Thesis: The live Rotten Tomatoes page shows 98% from 163 reviews, but retaining 98% through Monday is not sufficiently underpriced after the move. Rationale: Resolves YES iff the Tomatometer is at least 98 at 10:00 AM ET on July 20. Rotten Tomatoes showed 98% (159 fresh, 4 rotten; 163 reviews) on July 15, leaving little rounding cushion as wide-release reviews arrive; the cleanest tail risk to NO is that later reviews remain at least 97.5% fresh. | ||||||
| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
KXALBUMEQUIV-ALB26JUL16-140K | Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26AUG01-ARI | Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-ASH | Will Ashley Trail be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-YAS | Will Yash Patel be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.0c < 2.0c) |
KXALBUMEQUIV-ALB26JUL16-145K | Will The Real Me by Future have above 145000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-7.0c < 2.0c) |
KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26JUL16-TAY | Will Taylor Brown be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Jul 17, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
KXPUREALBUMS-MUS26JUL30-40K | Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 40000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? | no edge after shrinkage (-2.0c < 2.0c) |
KXLIUKELIMINATIONW-26JUL17-FIN | Will Finley be eliminated from Love Island UK S13 before Jul 18, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.0c < 2.0c) |
Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.