The original thesis — that the 14–15¢ YES price was residue from NPR’s retracted false retirement report, against a very low base rate of July recess announcements — has held and strengthened. No announcement has come from Alito or the Court’s Public Information Office. Since entry: sourced reporting says Alito is not retiring this term, he has hired law clerks for the upcoming term, and he has a book publishing in October. The “genuine announcement still coming this summer” tail named in the original rationale never materialized into anything sourced.
NO exits at 99¢ (100 − yes_ask of 1¢) into deep size — 2,000+ contracts bid at
99¢ NO. The capital_free rule says exit unless the market closes within
~7 days; it closes in ~4. Riding 4 days for the final cent beats paying the spread, and the
residual risk of a surprise announcement before Aug 1 is well under 1%. Knowing what we know
now, NO at 99¢ with 4 days to run is still a fair position. Hold to resolution.