# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted) — 2026-08-03

Date: 2026-08-03
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-03-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (Keel v4, archetype-targeted)

Run date 2026-08-03 · Horizon 45 days · Capital $2,500 · Universe: targets.json (104 pre-classified series, min OI 5,000)

0Picks
44Logged rejects
$2,500Cash (100%)
3Full-diligence candidates

Zero-pick week — by design, not by failure. The Stage-0 allowlist yielded 44 open
markets closing within 45 days; 41 failed the hard mechanical cuts (98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume
books and that cohort had negative edge — the liquidity floor is non-negotiable). The three survivors all reached full
diligence and all three ended as band or edge rejects. Cash is a position: 100% cash this week beats forcing a leg
into a jammed pre-recess Senate calendar that specialists are already pricing in real time.

## Market backdrop (what the week turns on)

Everything actionable in the Politics universe this week funnels into **one four-day Senate window before the
August recess** (last votes ~Fri Aug 7; formal recess Mon Aug 10 through the week of Labor Day — the Senate does
not return before Sep 1, so every "before Sep 1" contract is really a "this week" contract).

- **Blanche AG:** Judiciary vote postponed Jul 29 (Cornyn/Tillis, anti-weaponization fund); Trump floated
pulling the nomination Jul 30; Blanche rescinded the fund Aug 2 (WaPo: "back on track"); committee executive business
meeting re-noticed for **Tue Aug 4, 9am**. The Sep 1 market ripped 20¢→87¢ this morning on 7k+ contracts.
- **Judges:** Four Article III nominees pending on the Executive Calendar (Colmenero #828, Mitchell #830,
Domenico #901, Byrne #902); **no cloture filed** as of the Aug 3 calendar (Issue 303). Floor is jammed:
stopgap CR through Dec 11 (cloture tonight), budget resolution, and Blanche all outrank them.

## Picks (0)

No deployable edge survived the v4 gates this run. The pick tables (position sizes & limits,
EV-for-the-record, cluster, conviction exposure) are empty by construction; $2,500 (100%) is held as cash, satisfying
the ≥10% reserve rule trivially.

## Full-diligence rejects (3)

KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 — Trump's first announced AG pick (Todd Blanche) confirmed before Sep 1, 2026?

confirmation/enactTier 1cluster: blanche-ag-confirmationREJECT

**Prob: 72% pre-market → 79% final** (blended toward a liquid, specialist-dense book: vol24h 29,263, OI ~30,000).
Path priced: committee vote Tue Aug 4 (~88%) × floor cloture + 30h Cabinet post-cloture before senators leave (~80%) ≈ 72%;
the market's 86¢ implies near-certainty on both legs of a week that also has to fit a CR and a budget resolution.
Resolver risks priced: withdrawal-resolves-NO clause (Trump floated a pull on Jul 30, −3pts) and "first person confirmed"
wording (−1pt) are inside the deduction cap but real.

**Why rejected:** the 48h price-move screen. This book crashed 57¢→5¢ on the Jul 29 postponement and ripped
20¢→87¢ _this morning_ after the Aug 2 fund rescission — the news is fully captured, and at 86¢ ask my blended 79%
is _negative_ edge. The NO side (~14¢ effective) sits below the 40¢ band (tails 0-for-8 lifetime).

**Entry context:** 85.0 / 86.0, depth 35×46, vol24h 29,263, OI 29,999.

**Precedents consulted:** KXAGCONF-26-JUN01, -JUN15, -JUL01 all NO ("price the clock from formal transmittal,
5–6 weeks is the floor"); KXAGCONF-26-AUG01 resolved NO on Aug 1 (verified this run — committee postponement inside 10 days
of a rung deadline is mechanically fatal).

KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 — At least 2 federal judges confirmed in August 2026?

confirmation/enactTier 1cluster: judges-aug-2026REJECT

**Prob: 60% pre-market → 50% final.** For: 4 confirmable judges sit on the calendar, three are district seats
(2h post-cloture each), and leaving lifetime judges hanging five weeks before a recess is historically rare — the pre-recess
judge stack is the norm. Against: the same "rush" was predicted for the week of Jul 27 and fizzled (floor went to Russia
sanctions + a 74-nominee en-bloc of _executive_ nominees), no cloture is on file as of the Aug 3 calendar, and this
week's queue (CR, budget resolution, Blanche's 30-hour clock) outranks judges. RECNCH precedent lessons cut against
schedule optimism: "count actual session days," "the rung after upstream progress is the classic trap."

**Why rejected:** the entry band. YES at 31¢ is below the 40¢ floor — a hard v4 rule (sub-40¢ tails are 0-for-8
lifetime) — regardless of the apparent +19pt edge; NO at 69–71¢ is negative edge at a blended 50%. Note the "slide" from
71¢→31¢ happened on ~3 traded contracts with 5 contracts at the ask: this is a two-day-old book being quote-walked, not
informed flow, which is exactly the phantom-edge shape v4 exists to avoid.

**Entry context:** 29.0 / 31.0, depth 127×5, vol24h 1,776, OI 2,470.

**Precedents consulted:** none for KXJUDGECOUNT (cold derivation); KXRECNCH ladder lessons applied.

KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-3 — At least 4 federal judges confirmed in August 2026?

confirmation/enactTier 1cluster: judges-aug-2026REJECT

**Prob: ~30% final.** Requires the full stack — all four pending nominees including a circuit seat carrying a
30-hour post-cloture clock — inside the same jammed four-day window.

**Why rejected:** both sides sit in banned bands (YES 6–10¢ < 40¢; NO 90–94¢ ≥ 90¢ deep-favorite memorial band),
and it is the cluster runner-up to KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 — one leg per cluster; this leg shadow-tracks.

**Entry context:** 6.0 / 10.0, depth 4×5, vol24h 762, OI 816.

## Stage-0 mechanical rejects (41)

| Ticker | Archetype | Last/Bid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2¢ | YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26SEP01 | multi-news-other | 96¢ | YES bid >= 95c (deep favorite) |
| KXBURNHAMOUT-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25 | scheduled-process | 8¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C26 | scheduled-process | 4¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 | scheduled-process | 87¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 143 < 500; spread > 5c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 | scheduled-process | 5¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 19 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H26 | scheduled-process | 4¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 4 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 7¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; spread > 5c |
| KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; spread > 5c |
| KXFARMBILL-26MAY-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 3¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 4¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | multi-news-other | 5¢ | already an active pick; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01 | legal-action | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 94 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 3¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 4¢ | YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 490 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXIPOSTARLINK-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 19 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-4 | confirmation/enact | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXKASHOUT-26APR-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 5¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 302 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 2 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXLEAVELISACOOK-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 5 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 15¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 13 < 500 |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 313 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 106 < 500 |
| KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 8¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 4 < 500 |
| KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-AUG08 | confirmation/enact | 2¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXNYTCHARGE-27JAN01-26SEP01 | legal-action | 5¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 42 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXRECNCH-27-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL | confirmation/enact | 8¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500 |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-BMAT | confirmation/enact | 95¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; spread > 5c |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-CMEA | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-DMAC | confirmation/enact | 5¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 19 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-JCLA | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 19 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-SBES | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR30-NSAP | confirmation/enact | 1¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 3¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 0 < 500; YES ask <= 5c (tail) |
| KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | departure/ouster | 33¢ | liquidity floor: vol24h 51 < 500 |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | scheduled-process | 4¢ | YES ask <= 5c (tail) |

## Risk profile & execution notes

- **Exposure:** $0 deployed / $2,500 cash (100%). Conviction exposure table: empty. Cluster table: no deployed clusters
(judges-aug-2026 and blanche-ag-confirmation both fully rejected and shadow-tracking).
- **What would change the call:** a Thune cloture filing on ≥2 judges by Wed Aug 5 would make KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 YES
near-mechanical — but the band rule still requires the ask to reach 40¢+ to deploy, i.e. the market would have to come to us as the
news lands. Similarly, a completed Blanche committee vote Tue with an announced floor schedule could justify the SEP01 rung at 85–89¢
half-size — only if the blended number clears ~92%.
- **Why the discipline holds here:** both live theses are one Senate scheduling notice away from resolution; that notice
is public within minutes and this audit runs on a slower cycle. The v4 record says paying banned-band prices to "not miss it" is how
the historical losses happened (the 94¢ lock, the sub-40 tails).

## Precedents written back (2)

KXAGCONF-26-AUG01 (NO, verified) — committee postponement inside ~10 days of a rung deadline is mechanically
fatal; an acting-officer nominee removes urgency. Sister-rung price path swung ±80pts in four sessions on scheduling headlines.

KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26AUG01 (NO, verified) — committee-report rungs turn on executive-business-meeting
notices on judiciary.senate.gov, which lead the wires.

Keel v4 · probability committed before book study · one leg per cluster · cash is a position ·
sources: Kalshi public API, mirror DB (schema-first), Senate Executive Calendar Issue 303 (Aug 3, 2026), WaPo, CNN, NPR, CNBC, The Hill,
Washington Times, judiciary.senate.gov, nominationnotes.substack.com