Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

Why hold: The thesis — blockade + strikes keep the weekly transit sum well under 100 — has only strengthened. The resolver, IMF PortWatch, shows 9–14 transits/day through Jul 12 (queried directly from its data API); since the market week began, traffic hit a two-month low (~14 on Jul 13), CENTCOM reinstated the naval blockade Jul 14 and US strikes on Iran continued through Jul 17, and live trackers show the strait effectively closed (~10 ships Jul 18 vs ~88 normal). With 5 of 7 days elapsed at ~10–14/day (≈60 cumulative), YES needs an implausible 20+/day surge across the final two days to clear 100.

The capital_free trigger would normally force an exit at ≥95¢, but resolution is Tuesday morning — only ~3 days of locked capital for the last ~3¢, which beats crossing the spread today. Liquidity note: top-of-book NO bid is thin (63 contracts @ 97¢) — moot for a hold, but an exit would walk the book.