Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-07-11
1 pick triggered · 0 exit · 0 hold · 1 skip (already settled)

State Dept issues a passport bearing Trump's image before Jul 20, 2026

KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JUL20 · signal 260 · source audit
YES capital_free thesis: intact settled YES $1.00 decision: skip
Entry74¢ Peak99.5¢ Now100¢ (settlement) P&L+26¢ (+35%) Settled2026-07-07 17:41 UTC (early close)
Rationale: The market is already finalized — Kalshi closed it early on Jul 7 and settled YES at $1.00 (API: status: finalized, result: yes), confirming the original thesis: Trump-image "Patriot Passports" were handed out at the Jul 2 launch and general issuance began Jul 6, well before the Jul 20 deadline. Our 74¢ YES position paid out in full; the capital_free trigger fired on a stale mark from a position that has since resolved. Capital is already released — no action to take. Post-settlement quotes (yes_bid 0 / yes_ask 100, empty book) are artifacts, not tradable prices. Evidence: Kalshi market API (settlement record).