3 exits, 0 holds. All three tripped capital_free (≥95¢).
Every thesis re-checked out as intact — these are winners being closed for capital efficiency,
not losers being cut. In each case the market has caught up to our probability and the residual
1–4¢ over 19 days to the Sep 1 close isn't worth the tail risk or the locked capital.
Thesis fully intact: the strait remains closed to commercial shipping on day ~164 — the latest PortWatch print (Aug 9) is 1 transit/day against the 60/day 7-day-average threshold, war-risk insurance is ~30× pre-crisis, and despite the near-final US–Iran–Oman deal, Iran says a deal alone won't reopen the waterway. But at a 98¢ exit vs our ~99% probability, edge is gone: ~1¢ of upside over 19 days against the deal-announcement / queue-flush tail (245+ vessels holding offshore). Classic capital-free exit. Liquidity is deep — 1,275 contracts at 98¢, ~64k at 97¢.
Duplicate position on the same market and side as signal 718 — identical evidence and identical call. PortWatch daily prints of 1–8 in August make a 7-day moving average above 60 before Sep 1 physically implausible even if a deal were signed tomorrow: insurers put normalization months out and Iran still controls transit authorization, exactly as the original thesis argued. The remaining 2¢ over 19 days isn't worth the tail. Exit at 98¢.
Thesis intact: 13 of 31 August days are already banked at zero trips, Mar-a-Lago is seasonally closed, and pool reports plus the Bedminster flight restriction (Aug 8–18) put Trump on his usual DC / New Jersey August rotation. The only tail is a Palm-Beach-track hurricane pulling a property visit, and NOAA's updated outlook is below-average with no named system near Florida today. Still: 96¢ bid vs ~98% true odds is 1–2¢ of edge over 19 days — we would not open YES at today's 97¢ ask, so we don't hold it either. Exit at 96¢ (2,658 contracts at the bid).