Thesis re-check: Section 702 lapsed June 12 after the House rejected the last extension 198–218, and nothing has become law since. The Brennan Center's 702 resource page (updated Jul 30) shows only failed or stalled proposals through late July; the feared pre-recess deal never materialized, and both chambers are now in August recess until after Labor Day. A stale-looking Hill headline about House passage checks out as the April 29 bill that later died in the Senate. There is no realistic vehicle that becomes law before the Sep 1 cutoff — NO is ~99% to win.
Why exit anyway: this is a capital-efficiency call, not a thesis call. NO bids 99¢ with 1,500 contracts at top of book — a clean fill — and the market runs 18 more days, well outside the ~7-day window where holding for the last penny makes sense. 1¢ of remaining upside doesn't justify 18 days of locked capital plus the residual unanimous-consent/pro-forma tail. Exit at 99¢ banks +7¢ on the 92¢ entry (+7.6%).
lineage: 2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · placed 2026-07-20 · model prob 95% · conviction high