Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit

Report date: 2026-06-11 Category: Politics Horizon: ≤45 days Capital: $10,000

An independent screen of every active Kalshi Politics contract closing on or before ~July 26, 2026, looking for contracts whose price disagrees with the public evidence. Three picks survived; the most seductive "mispricing" of the week is in the rejected pile.

Bottom line. Politics is mostly efficient or trap-laden this week. The cleanest edge is the dullest: Trump showing up to the World Cup final he has been promoting for a year. Two Iran-war contracts pay a smaller, well-defended premium for "the conflict doesn't resolve in three weeks." The headline name — KXGABBARDOUT — looks like a fat YES after Trump announced a June 19 handover, but the market spiked to 90¢ and then collapsed to 25¢ in 48 hours because the resolution date (June 29) sits one day inside her stated departure (June 30). That is a coin-flip on wording, not an edge. It is rejected below.

1. How this was researched

Universe. Pulled every trading_markets row joined to trading_events where category = 'Politics', status='active', and close_time within 45 days. 339 markets.
Liquidity screen. Joined the latest market_snapshots row per ticker and cut anything with 24h volume < 1,500 contracts, bid-ask spread > 5¢, or already pinned (YES bid ≥ 95 / ask ≤ 5). Dropped "mention/announcer-noise" markets. 33 survivors.
Diligence. For each candidate cluster I read the full resolution rules text, pulled a 14-day intraday price history from market_snapshots, hit the live Kalshi orderbook for top-of-book depth, and ran primary-source news diligence (Roll Call, CBS, NPR, AP, CNN, Axios, IMF PortWatch, FIFA).
Rejection gate. Any contract whose resolution could flip on a wording dispute, whose thesis was already fully priced in the last 48h, or that I could not size without paying ≥3¢ of slippage, was rejected. The biggest names died here.
Exclusions. 21 contracts already live in users' feeds from prior runs were excluded up front to avoid duplicate picks.

Live quotes and orderbook depth captured 2026-06-11 ~12:00–13:00 UTC. Prices move; re-check before sending an order.

2. Markets reviewed

Ticker	Question (short)	YES bid/ask	24h vol	Verdict
KXTRUMPATTEND	Trump attends 2026 World Cup Final	83 / 85	14,844	PICK · BUY YES
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL	US–Iran nuclear deal before Jul 1	9 / 10	76,813	PICK · BUY NO
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701	Hormuz transit 7-day MA > 60 by Jul 1	5 / 6	104,867	PICK · BUY NO
KXGABBARDOUT-26JUN-JUN29	Gabbard out as DNI before Jun 29	30 / 33	37,578	REJECT · wording trap
KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-JUL01	FISA 702 reauthorized into law by Jul 1	64 / 67	2,200	REJECT · uncertain + moving
KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-JUN13	FISA 702 reauthorized by Jun 13	13 / 14	47,652	REJECT · deadline coin-flip
KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUL01	Kash Patel out as FBI Director by Jul 1	8 / 9	6,461	REJECT · fairly priced
KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT	Trump attends UFC 329 (Jul 11)	20 / 21	5,754	REJECT · no confirmed plan
KXEOWEEK-26JUN13-0	Trump signs >0 EOs Jun 7–13	43 / 44	2,632	REJECT · genuine coin-flip
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-40.3	Trump RCP approval 40.2–40.4 on Jun 12	54 / 55	3,039	REJECT · unverifiable input
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T20	Hormuz weekly transits > 20	63 / 64	1,537	REJECT · noisy + data lag
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-124	>249 people pardoned in June	32 / 35	2,367	REJECT · speculative

12 representative rows shown from the 33-market liquid set; ~20 low-information markets (celebrity UFC-250 attendance, Truth Social post-count buckets, Getty photo-day counts, approval micro-buckets) were screened and dropped without write-ups.

3. The picks

Pick 1 — KXTRUMPATTEND · BUY YES @ 0.85 · High conviction

Current (yes)83 bid / 85 ask

Limit0.85

Est. true prob~90%

Edge+5¢

EV / contract+5.0¢ (5.9%)

Closes2026-07-20

Thesis. "Will Donald J. Trump attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?" (July 19, MetLife Stadium). The market prices ~84%. The public evidence points materially higher.

Evidence (all public).

FIFA President Gianni Infantino has said on the record that the trophy "will be handed out on [July 19, 2026] to the captain of the team who will win the World Cup. I will give it together with the President of the United States, the host country." A trophy-presentation role is about as close to a confirmed appearance as you get. (Yahoo Sports / FIFA, 2026)
Trump chairs the White House Task Force on the 2026 World Cup and has built the tournament into a signature event.
Direct precedent: he attended the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final at the same MetLife Stadium (July 13, 2025), alongside Infantino — a literal dry run for this venue and ceremony. (ESPN, 2025)

Numbers. At 0.85 the contract pays 0.15 on a win, costs 0.85 on a loss. At a 90% true probability the EV is +5.0¢ per contract (+5.9% per dollar at fill). This is the highest-conviction line in the report not because the edge is the largest, but because it is the most defensible: an unambiguous binary ("attends the final"), a named primary source, and an outcome with direct precedent.

Cleanest tail risk: an unforeseen schedule break — a security, health, or geopolitical event (the active US–Iran war is the live one) that pulls Trump off the July 19 slate. That, plus the small chance the result is delegated to the VP, is the entire ~10% NO. There is no wording ambiguity here.

Liquidity / fill. 24h volume ~14,800 contracts; OI ~47,800. Top-of-book is thin (≈127 @ 0.85, then 0.87), so accumulate with resting limit orders at 0.84–0.85 rather than crossing the spread for size.

YES price, daily (last 14d):

May29 80 · 31 80 · Jun1 77 · 2 76 · 3 81 · 4 78 · 5 78 · 6 76 · 7 80 · 8 80 · 9 81 · 10 88 · 11 83 ← briefly spiked to high-80s on Jun 10 (vol 8.7k), settled to low-80s

Pick 2 — KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL · BUY NO @ 0.90 · Medium conviction

Current (no)90 bid / 91 ask

Limit (NO)0.90

Est. true (no)~94%

Edge+4¢

EV / contract+4.0¢ (4.4%)

Closes2026-07-01

Thesis. "Will the US agree to a new Iran nuclear deal before July 1, 2026?" trades ~9–10% YES. With three weeks left, active combat, and suspended talks, a signed nuclear deal is closer to 5%. Buy NO.

Evidence (all public).

The two sides are shooting, not signing. The US struck multiple Iranian targets on June 9–10, 2026 and Iran retaliated against Gulf bases; Trump said Iran would "pay the price" for taking "too long." (CNN / RFE-RL / CNBC, Jun 9–10)
Talks are deadlocked. An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader told CNN negotiations "are at a deadlock"; Iran suspended talks pending release of frozen assets. (CNN live, Jun 1 & 4)
The closest artifact was not a deal. The late-May (May 28–29) tentative MOU only extended a ceasefire and launched nuclear talks — explicitly "an agreement to start talks" — and Trump then asked for edits before it was overtaken by the June escalation. (AP via PBS, May 29; Axios, May 31)
Verification is impossible right now. The IAEA has no access and "lost continuity of knowledge"; on June 10 its Board passed a resolution demanding Iran declare its enriched-uranium stockpile, which Iran called "coercion." (Al Jazeera, Jun 8; IAEA, Jun 10)

Numbers. NO at 0.90 pays 0.10 and costs 0.90. At ~94% true NO the EV is +4.0¢ per contract (+4.4%). Note the price already fell from 24¢ → 9¢ across late May as the war escalated, so most of the move is priced; the residual edge plus a counter-fundamental uptick to 10¢ today (against the June 9–10 escalation) is what's left to harvest.

Cleanest tail risk: Trump is erratic and wants a "win" — he has repeatedly said "all Iran has to do is sign a paper." A hastily branded framework/MOU that the exchange chooses to read as a "deal" would resolve YES against this. The resolution phrase "agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal" is broad enough that a loose framework is the real risk — hence Medium, not High.

Liquidity / fill. Very deep: OI ~818k, 24h volume ~76,800; thousands of contracts resting at each NO price (e.g. 12,278 @ 0.89). A NO limit at 0.90 fills easily; do not pay through 0.91.

YES price, daily (last 14d):

May29 24 · 30 18 · 31 19 · Jun1 17 · 2 14 · 3 11 · 4 12 · 5 12 · 6 10 · 7 9 · 8 8 · 9 7 · 10 8 · 11 9 ← collapsed on the war, small uptick today

Pick 3 — KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701 · BUY NO @ 0.95 · Medium conviction

Current (no)~94 bid / 95 ask

Limit (NO)0.95

Est. true (no)~97%

Edge+2¢

EV / contract+2.0¢ (2.1%)

Closes2026-07-07

Thesis. "Will the 7-day moving average of Strait-of-Hormuz transit calls (IMF PortWatch) exceed 60 before July 1?" trades ~5–6% YES. With the strait choked by the war, the true figure is ~3%. Buy NO. This is a low-variance carry, not a fireworks trade.

Evidence (objective data).

Baseline: normal Hormuz transit calls run ~94–99/day (a 7-day MA of ~90–100). (IMF PortWatch, 2024–25 avg)
Now: traffic collapsed ~95% when the war/blockade began in March 2026. March–June daily averages are ~5/day; the latest reading (June 7) is 2 transits, and the 7-day MA sits near 5. (IMF PortWatch chokepoint6, queried Jun 11)
To resolve YES the 7-day MA must climb from ~5 to 60 — a ~12× surge to two-thirds of pre-war normal — within ~3 weeks, while the June 9–10 strikes and a naval blockade are ongoing. The MA has not topped ~12 on any day since late February.

Numbers. NO at 0.95 pays 0.05 and costs 0.95. At ~97% true NO the EV is +2.0¢ (+2.1%) over ~3 weeks — small in absolute terms but on a near-deterministic outcome with an objective data source. Sized small because the per-contract payoff is asymmetric (risk 95¢ to make 5¢): a modest error in my probability would erase the edge.

Cleanest tail risk: an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire that floods shipping back into the strait fast enough to drag a 7-day average to 60 before July 1. This is the same headline (US–Iran de-escalation) that threatens Pick 2 — see the concentration note in the portfolio section.

Liquidity / fill. Extremely deep: OI ~1.5M, 24h volume ~104,900. Resting NO at 0.95 fills without moving the book.

YES price, daily (last 14d):

May29 33 · 30 22 · 31 20 · Jun1 16 · 2 15 · 3 12 · 4 11 · 5 13 · 6 11 · 7 9 · 8 8 · 9 7 · 10 7 · 11 6 ← steady bleed lower as traffic stays crushed

4. Recommended $10,000 portfolio

Three picks, weighted toward the best risk-adjusted line (Pick 1) and away from the thin-edge carry (Pick 3). ~25% held in cash reserve — deliberately above the usual 10% because the category's edges are thin this week and two of three legs share an Iran-war thesis.

#	Ticker	Side	Limit	Contracts	Cost	Max payout	EV ¢/ct	EV %	Conv.
1	KXTRUMPATTEND	YES	0.85	3,500	$2,975	$3,500	+5.0	5.9%	High
2	KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL	NO	0.90	3,400	$3,060	$3,400	+4.0	4.4%	Med
3	KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701	NO	0.95	1,500	$1,425	$1,500	+2.0	2.1%	Med
Total deployed					$7,460	$8,400		4.6%
Cash reserve (opportunistic adds)					$2,540	—

Blended: $7,460 deployed · max payout $8,400 (max profit +$940 if all three win) · expected dollar edge ≈ +$341 · blended EV ≈ +4.6% per dollar deployed.

Risk profile

Worst case: all three resolve against me → lose the full $7,460 deployed. Probability is low but non-trivial (the two NO legs are high-priced, so each loss costs 90–95¢). Cash reserve and the high blended win-rate cushion this.
Best case: all three win → +$940 (+12.6% on deployed capital) by mid-July.
Most-likely outcome: each leg resolves to its favored side (Trump attends; no Iran deal; Hormuz stays choked) → realize close to the full +$940.
Concentration — read this. Picks 2 and 3 ($4,485, ~60% of deployed) are two expressions of one thesis: "the US–Iran conflict does not resolve in the next three weeks." A sudden, comprehensive ceasefire-plus-deal would hit both simultaneously (Pick 2 directly; Pick 3 only if shipping also normalized fast). Pick 1 is the independent diversifier. Treat the real portfolio bet as ~60% "war continues" / ~40% "Trump shows up."

Execution notes

Limit orders only. Pick 1's book is thin at the top — rest 0.84–0.85 bids and accumulate; do not chase to 0.87+. Picks 2 and 3 are deep — rest NO at 0.90 / 0.95 and you will fill without slippage. Avoid market orders everywhere.
Single shared invalidation trigger: a credible headline of a signed US–Iran agreement or durable ceasefire invalidates Pick 2 outright and raises the (small) risk on Pick 3. If that crosses the wire, exit both NO legs immediately rather than holding to expiry, and consider that the $2,540 reserve is partly there to avoid needing to.
Per-pick invalidation: Pick 1 — any reporting that Trump will skip the final or delegate the trophy presentation. Pick 2 — a Kalshi clarification that a framework/MOU counts as a "deal." Pick 3 — PortWatch 7-day MA breaking above ~25 (early sign of normalization).
Hedge option: Pick 1 partially hedges the Iran concentration — a war so severe it grounds Trump's July 19 plans would likely coincide with the NO legs paying off, so the legs are mildly offsetting in the extreme-escalation tail.
Reserve deployment: hold $2,540 for (a) adding to Pick 1 if it dips to 0.80–0.82 on noise, or (b) re-entering the Gabbard or FISA names if their resolution wording gets clarified (see rejects).

5. What I rejected and why

The screen is only as good as what it throws away. The most-clicked names this week are all here.

Ticker	Why it looked good	Why I passed
KXGABBARDOUT-26JUN-JUN29	Gabbard announced her resignation, and on June 9 Trump said Bill Pulte takes over as acting DNI on June 19 — before the June 29 cutoff. Looks like a fat YES sitting at ~30¢.	Definitional trap — the single best example this week. Her stated departure is June 30, one day after the June 29 resolution date; the "June 19" handover is to an acting successor while she remains DNI of record. The market told the story: it spiked to 85–90¢ on June 9 (vol 18k) on the announcement, then crashed to ~25¢ by June 10–11 (vol 38k) as traders concluded the wording resolves NO. When a liquid market violently reverses on the literal good news, the resolution is contested — exactly the case the rules say to reject. Both sides are bets on wording, not facts.
KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-JUL01	FISA §702 statutory authority lapses June 12; the program keeps running under a March-2026 FISC certification to ~March 2027, so "no urgency" suggests the 64¢ YES is too high.	Genuinely uncertain and the price is already moving on exactly this thesis (77¢ → 64¢ in days — "the edge is being eaten"). Plus a definitional fork: does a short clean stopgap count as "reauthorizes §702 authority"? The prior April extensions did. Can't defend either side at ≥3¢ confidence.
KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-JUN13	The June 5 Senate motion to proceed failed 47-52; passing a full reauth in two days looks ~0, so NO at 86¢ looks cheap.	The June 12 expiry creates maximum pressure for a last-minute stopgap — Congress has rammed these through at past deadlines. With Democrats blocking over Pulte and 7 Republicans wanting a warrant rule, it's a true coin-flip between "lapse" and "deadline patch." 14¢ is defensible; no edge.
KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUL01	Patel is embattled — agent purges, an Atlantic exposé, internal turmoil — so "out by July 1" might be underpriced at 8¢.	The credible "Trump weighing replacement" reporting is from November 2025, not now; current posture is "no plans to replace." Polymarket independently prices ~8% by June 30. The market is right; no edge.
KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT	Trump is a UFC regular and close to Dana White; UFC 329 (July 11, Las Vegas, McGregor's comeback) is a marquee card. 20¢ feels low.	No confirmed plan. The estimate (~25–35%) is pure base-rate, and he'll have just hosted his own UFC card on the White House lawn (June 14), cutting the marginal pull to fly to Vegas. An undefendable edge — exactly the "no public evidence" cut.
KXEOWEEK-26JUN13-0	Trump signs executive orders constantly; ">0 EOs in a week" at 44¢ looks too low.	He has signed zero EOs June 7–11 (last was June 3), leaving only Friday/Saturday June 12–13 — and he rarely signs on weekends. Whether he signs one specific Friday is a real coin-flip; 44¢ is roughly fair.
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-40.3	RCP approval is reportedly ~40.3% now, which lands in this 40.2–40.4 bucket; it resolves tomorrow at 54¢.	The input I'd be betting on (the live RCP number) could not be cleanly verified — the RCP page served a stale cache — and a single overnight poll can move a 0.3-wide bucket. Won't deploy capital on an unverifiable number.
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T20 / T25 / T30	With traffic crushed by the war, the weekly transit thresholds look mispriced.	The most recent full week summed to ~36 (occasional 10-vessel convoy days), so the thresholds sit right at the current operating band, and PortWatch data lags 3–4 days. Too noisy to call at deploy-grade confidence — watchlist only.
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUN-124	">249 pardons in June" at 33¢ — a single mass-clemency action could blow past it.	No public evidence of a planned June mass-pardon batch. Pure speculation on an unpredictable event; not defendable.

6. Sources

Pick 1 — World Cup final

Pick 2 — US–Iran nuclear deal

Pick 3 — Strait of Hormuz transits

Rejects — context

Data & method. Market universe, prices, volume, open interest and price history from the Kalshi DB mirror (trading_markets, trading_events, market_snapshots) and the Kalshi public API (/markets, /orderbook), captured 2026-06-11. News diligence from the primary sources linked above. All probabilities are subjective estimates, not guarantees; every contract can resolve to $0 and you can lose 100% of capital on any position. Prediction-market prices move continuously — re-verify quotes, orderbook depth and the underlying news before entering any order. This is research and commentary, not financial advice. No non-public information was used; if you cannot independently verify an edge from the cited public sources, do not trade it.