# Sentinel — Position Review (PM) · 2026-07-31

Date: 2026-07-31
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-31-kalshi-sentinel-review-pm

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# Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-07-31 · 4 triggered picks reviewed · 3 hold / 1 exit · all quotes fetched live from Kalshi at review time

Alito announces departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1
HOLD
thesis intact

KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-AUG01 · NO · closes 2026-08-01 03:59Z (tonight)

entry **86¢**now **99¢**peak **99.5¢**
our prob **99%**yes book **0 / 1**
capital_free

No announcement ever came. The Jun 30 NPR story was retracted, the Court denied it, and Roberts's end-of-term staff-retirement announcements excluded Alito. July produced zero fresh signals — the conservative-media "summer announcement" tail never fired. With ~10 hours to close, riding the last cent to resolution beats hitting the 99 bid.

Trump makes exactly 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in July 2026
HOLD
thesis intact

KXLAGODAYS-26JUL-0 · YES · closes 2026-08-01 14:00Z (tomorrow)

entry **91¢**now **99¢**peak **99.5¢**
our prob **99%**yes book **99 / 100**
capital_free

Zero Mar-a-Lago trips all month — the club has been seasonally closed since early May, and the Jul 11 Miami World Cup tail never fired. The clincher: the pool-report schedule for Jul 31 — the final day of the window — has Trump at a Camp David cabinet meeting, then departing for Bedminster, NJ for the weekend. Settles tomorrow; hold to resolution.

Pete Hegseth out as SecDef before Aug 1, 2026
HOLD
thesis intact

KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-AUG01 · NO · closes 2026-08-01 03:59Z (tonight)

entry **92¢**now **99.9¢**peak **99.5¢**
our prob **99.9%**yes book **0 / 0.1**
capital_free

Hegseth is not just still in the job — he's conspicuously active in it: testified Jul 21 on Iran war costs ($37.5B), launched the Europe force-posture review, and is pushing new grooming/fitness standards this week (Just Security, Jul 30). No scandal-resignation tail. Closes tonight; nothing left to do but settle.

FISA Section 702 reauthorized into law before Sep 1, 2026
EXIT @ 96¢
thesis intact

KXFISAEXTEND-26JUL-26SEP01 · NO · closes 2026-09-01 14:00Z (32 days out)

entry **92¢**now **96¢**peak **98.5¢**
our prob **99%**yes book **0 / 4**
capital_free

The thesis held — 702 remains lapsed and the recess calendar now makes YES nearly impossible: the Senate leaves ~Aug 7 and returns Sep 14 while the House is out until Aug 31, so no overlapping session window exists before the cutoff. But this is a capital-efficiency exit, not a thesis exit: Jay Clayton was confirmed DNI Jul 29 (51-47) — the exact deal-unlock tail the original audit priced — and the market doesn't settle for another month. Per desk policy, the last 3–4¢ aren't worth 32 days of locked capital plus tail risk. Liquidity: top of book is thin (5 @ 96¢, then 500 @ 95¢) — size fills land ~95¢.

Sentinel position-review desk · triggers per pick shown as badges · price_now = executable best bid for our side at review time · lineage in decisions.json