Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

The Federal Register — the market's resolution source — shows zero executive orders signed in the Jun 28–Jul 4 window (the latest before it is EO 14414, signed Jun 25; none signed Jul 5–17 either). Thirteen days past the period's end, the entry rationale's tail risk of a late-published window-dated EO has effectively expired. The market closes tomorrow, or earlier once Federal Register data is complete — that is the ≤7-day capital-free exception, so we ride the last cent to resolution rather than sell across the spread at NO 99.

Thesis holds: Trump's public schedule shows zero Florida travel through Jul 17 — the month has been DC, the Dakotas (Jul 1–4), the Ankara NATO summit (Jul 6–8), Carlisle PA (Jul 15), and DC-area golf, with the Jul 19 World Cup final at MetLife, NJ next. Mar-a-Lago remains seasonally closed. A whitehouse.gov "Trip to Palm Beach" gallery that surfaced in research dates to Oct 31–Nov 2, 2025 — not a July event. But this is an exit on capital efficiency, not thesis failure: at a 95¢ bid vs our ~97% probability, ~2¢ of edge remains against 15 days of locked capital plus unscheduled-stop tail risk. Per the capital-free rule (≥95¢ with close >~7 days out) we sell the 95 bid; ~1,800 contracts sit there, so liquidity is ample.