Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

The strait is still effectively closed — PortWatch logged ~2 transits on Aug 2 vs a 73/day baseline (day ~162 of closure). But the US, Iran and Oman are reportedly closing on an interim reopening deal (Axios, Aug 5; CNN, Aug 8) — the exact tail the pick priced at −4pts: a reopening plus queue-flush of ~355 stranded vessels could plausibly spike the 7dMA above 60 before Sep 1. Our fresh NO probability (~92%) is now below what 96¢ implies, so the last 4¢ over 22 days comes with negative edge. Book is deep (~77k contracts bid at 96¢) — exit cleanly.

The physical-floor argument still leans NO — Iran itself says full reopening awaits US concessions, insurers put normalization at months, and June's best reopening only reached a 7dMA of ~34. But with a deal reportedly imminent and ~3 weeks left, the >60 spike scenario is meaningfully more likely than the −2pts the pick assigned it. No edge remains at 96¢; holding is 4¢ of upside against 22 days of headline risk on a live negotiation. Exit.

Thesis fully intact: Mar-a-Lago is seasonally closed and press-pool reports place Trump at Camp David Jul 31, then Bedminster from Aug 1 — zero Florida trips this month. The named tail (a Palm Beach hurricane pulling a property visit) is not live: NHC's Aug 9 outlook shows no near-term Florida threat, though peak season runs through month-end. A zero-count can only confirm at month end, so this cannot resolve early — holding parks capital 22 days for the last ~3¢ against a residual weather/news tail. Take the 95¢ bid (2.5k contracts) and free the capital.