# Sentinel — Position Review (AM) · 2026-08-18

Date: 2026-08-18
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-18-kalshi-sentinel-review-am

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# Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-18 · 1 triggered pick reviewed · 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip

13 live picks; 1 tripped a trigger since last review. Decision below re-checked against live Kalshi quotes and primary reporting as of this morning.

NO
capital_free
thesis intact
EXIT @ 99¢

## Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Sep 1, 2026?

KXFISAEXTEND-26JUL-26SEP01 · closes 2026-09-01 14:00 UTC · origin audit 2026-07-20

Entry92¢
Now (exec)99¢
Peak mid99.5¢
Model → New prob95% → 99.5%
Live YES quotes0 / 1¢

**Thesis re-check:** unchanged and stronger. Section 702 lapsed on June 12 after the
      House [rejected the last-ditch extension 198–218](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/11/fisa-section-702-expiration-pulte-trump-johnson);
      the deadlock over the [Pulte acting-DNI standoff](https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/06/house-vote-puts-section-702-brink-historic-lapse-amid-fight-over-acting-spy-chief/414136/)
      persists, the [Brennan Center 2026 tracker](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page)
      shows no bill moving, and Congress is in August recess until after this market's close. Nothing can become law before Sep 1.

**Why exit anyway:** NO is bid 99¢ with 1,500 contracts of depth, and the market only
      closes early if YES occurs — so holding locks capital for 14 more days to collect at most 1¢, while
      keeping the (tiny) recall-and-rush tail. That fails the capital-free test (≥95¢ with >7 days to
      close). Take 99¢ on the 92¢ entry and redeploy.

Checked: Kalshi live book (08:00 UTC), Axios, Nextgov/FCW, Brennan Center.