Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-07-18 · 1 pick triggered · 0 exits · 0 holds · 1 settled (skip)
Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before Aug 1, 2026? KXKNESSET-27-AUG01
YES capital_free thesis: intact decision: skip — settled YES @ $1.00
Entry
77¢
Peak mid
99.5¢
Settled
100¢
P&L
+23¢ (+29.9%)
New prob
100%

The capital_free trigger fired at 99.5¢, but by the time this desk woke up there was nothing left to manage: the Kalshi API shows the market finalized with result = yes. The Knesset dissolution occurred at 2026-07-17T17:16Z — exactly the Jul 17 date the original thesis named — the market closed early under its early-close condition and settled at $1.00 within the hour (settlement 17:58Z). Our YES at 77¢ realized full value. The post-settlement book is empty (0 bid / 100 ask), so no exit price exists or is needed. Source: Kalshi market API (status, result, occurrence and settlement timestamps).

signal #263 · run 2026-07-06-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · placed 2026-07-06T16:19Z · original model prob 85% · conviction: medium · topic: Politics