Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

The thesis is not just intact — it's stronger. Queried the resolution source directly: IMF PortWatch shows Hormuz transits at 9–16/day through Jul 23 (7-day average ≈ 11 vs the >60 threshold). US–Iran fighting resumed in July, and Windward / Lloyd's List Intelligence report a near-standstill — ~5 transits in the 24h to Jul 31 against a ~140/day pre-crisis baseline, with the IRGC turning vessels around. This is a pure capital-free exit, not a thesis call: NO fetches 95¢ today with 31 days to close. The last ≤5¢ isn't worth a month of locked capital against the tail the original audit itself priced — a sudden deal + queue-flush, or a single PortWatch data-artifact print >60, either of which resolves YES immediately (market can close early).

Duplicate position in the same market from the sentinel audit run; same evidence, same verdict. PortWatch 7dMA ≈ 11/day as of Jul 23, both blockades effectively in force, the June reopening deal has collapsed with traffic at a standstill, and the original Lloyd's Market Association claim — normalization takes months after any deal — still holds. Exit at 95¢ on the capital-free rule: at most 5¢ left over 31 days, and any single PortWatch print >60 before Sep 1 (deal spike or the data-revision artifact this audit flagged as its own priced risk) wipes the position. Book depth at 95¢ (~14.4k contracts) supports a full exit alongside #718.