1 pick, 43 logged rejects, $152.57 deployed (6.1%), $2,347.43 cash (93.9%).
The Stage-0 allowlist yielded 44 open markets closing in the window; 41 died on mechanical cuts (39 on the zero/low-volume floor or price extremes — the exact cohort that hid phantom edge in the resolved record), one is an existing pick (KXHEGSETHOUT), and the two liquid survivors split: one core-band pick (NO on Pirro departure) and one deep-favorite band reject (Blanche AG confirmation at 92¢). A near-empty book in an efficient week is the system working, not failing. Cash is a position.
Thesis. The Reflecting Pool blow-up peaked Aug 3–4: Trump said Pirro "choked" and "folded like an umbrella" after her office dropped the vandalism charges (DOJ concluded the damage was a flawed renovation), and was reported "considering removing" her (WTOP, Forbes, CNN — Aug 3). The moment of maximum danger — the Aug 4 Oval Office meeting — passed with no firing and no resignation (CNN, NBC News). Trump's on-record position is "I haven't made a determination" (The Hill, Aug 4–5); no successor has been named or floated; a source told CNN "it would be hard for him to fire her… he likes her." Aug 5–7 brought no escalation. Twenty-four days remain.
Resolver profile & risk pricing. Resolver reads its own clarification: rules_secondary makes a public announcement resolve YES regardless of effective date — a lower bar than an actual vacancy (−4 pts), and a single Truth Social post removing her would settle it instantly (−2 pts). The "expiration of term without renewal" clause is inert: she was Senate-confirmed Aug 2, 2025 to a four-year term. Total deductions 6 pts < 15 — playable.
Price path / 48h check. YES spiked into the 80s–90s on the Aug 3 reports, crashed to ~24 after the Aug 4 meeting, and has sat 27–30 for three days (30→27 over the last 48h — a 2–3¢ drift, not a chased move). We are carrying residual news-cycle premium to expiry, the documented Kash pattern. Slippage: 0.5¢ cross at 73¢ — passes ≤3¢.
Why MEDIUM, not HIGH. The decision-maker himself is publicly undecided, and the announcement bar means one impulsive post resolves YES. That is a live way to be wrong; sizing respects it.
| Market | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost (max loss) | Max win | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | NO | 73¢ | 209 | $152.57 | $56.43 | 6.1% |
| Cash reserve | — | — | — | $2,347.43 | — | 93.9% |
Sizing: MEDIUM cap is 7% of $2,500 = $175; the binding constraint is the depth cap — 1/3 of the 628.94 contracts visible at the 73¢ NO entry (the resting 27¢ YES bid) → 209 contracts. Reserve ≥10% satisfied trivially.
| Market | Side | Entry | Model prob (side) | Edge | EV/contract | EV (position) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | NO | 73¢ | 78% | +5.0¢ | +5.0¢ | +$10.45 |
Recorded for the audit trail only — sizing is EV-agnostic by design.
| Cluster | Legs surviving Stage 2 | Deployed leg | Runners-up rejected |
|---|---|---|---|
| pirro-dc-usattorney-exit | 1 | KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 NO | none (single-leg cluster) |
| Conviction | Positions | Cost at risk | % of capital | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0.00 | 0% | 15%/pick |
| MEDIUM | 1 | $152.57 | 6.1% | 7%/pick |
Risk profile: single-name, single-cluster exposure; worst case −$152.57 (−6.1% of capital) if Trump announces Pirro's departure in any form before Sep 1. No correlated second legs. The book is intentionally small: the only other liquid in-horizon market sits in the banned ≥90¢ band on one side and the banned <40¢ tail on the other.
| Market | Archetype | Price | Prob | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 Blanche confirmed AG before Sep 1? |
confirmation/enact | YES 92¢ | 82%→88% | Deep-favorite band (≥90¢). Committee cleared 12-10 on Aug 4 after the Cornyn/Tillis deal; Cassidy declared the 50th vote today — but Collins and Murkowski are opposed and McConnell absent, so the count has zero margin, and the market round-tripped 77→24→93 intraday today (fails the 48h move check too). The NO side at 8.5¢ is a <40¢ tail (0-for-8 lifetime). Precedent: KXAGCONF-26-JUL01/JUN15 both resolved NO on clock mechanics; the ≥90¢ ban is the permanent memorial to the 94¢ lock that broke in 48h. |
98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books and that cohort had negative edge — the vol24h ≥ 500 floor and price-extreme cuts are hard rules. One market is an existing pick.
| Market | Reason |
|---|---|
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | already an active pick |
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | ask 1.6¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXKASHOUT-26APR-26SEP01 | ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXMAMDANIEO-26AUG08-T0 | ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01 | ask 3¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | ask 2¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 | ask 1¢ ≤ 5¢ (tail) |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 | vol24h 20 < 500; bid 97¢ ≥ 95¢ |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-BMAT | vol24h 288 < 500; bid 99¢ ≥ 95¢ |
| KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01 | vol24h 375 < 500 |
| KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01 | vol24h 154 < 500 |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25 | vol24h 101 < 500 |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-4 | vol24h 1 < 500 |
| KXBURNHAMOUT-26JUL-26SEP01, KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C26/H25/H26, KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01, KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01, KXFARMBILL-26MAY-SEP01, KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01, KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01, KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01, KXIPOSTARLINK-26SEP01, KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1/3, KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01, KXLEAVELISACOOK-26SEP01, KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01, KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01, KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01, KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-AUG08, KXRECNCH-27-SEP01, KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL, KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-SBES/CMEA/JCLA/DMAC, KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR30-NSAP, KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01, KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | vol24h 0 < 500 (zero-volume book) |