Kalshi Copy-the-Trade — Week of 2026-05-12

Democrats are very likely to take the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms; Nate thinks the odds are higher than the market's ~80-85%, more like 85-90%.

The Senate leans slightly Republican in 2026; Nate gives the GOP a slight edge, maybe 60% to hold the Senate, so Democrats fall short.

Gavin Newsom is fading and is in a defensive position for the 2028 Democratic nomination, having dropped in both primary polls and prediction markets; he is unlikely to be the nominee.

AOC is the pick to become the anti-establishment 'burn it down' outsider and win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

Democrats are slight favorites to win the 2028 presidential election.

Big Cat repeatedly argues LeBron's next team should and most likely will be Cleveland, calling it the perfect ending to his career, though he acknowledges the reported favorite is Golden State.

PFT names France the clear favorite to win the World Cup, saying they are playing on easy mode with the best player in the world (Mbappe) and are chalk for a reason.

Discussing the fabricated CPS report against Pete Buttigieg's family, Swisher notes he is polling well for a 2028 presidential run and expresses hope the incident does not deter him from running, indicating an expectation that he will run.

OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO from Q3/Q4 2026 to next year (2027). Galloway argues they cannot get out now because the S1 would expose massive lost momentum vs. Anthropic and excessive cash burn; if they could get out, they would. He expects the second half of 2026 to be about cutting costs, not going public.

Galloway predicts Anthropic will NOT delay and will go public, riding its momentum ('the great flippening') while OpenAI stumbles. He says if he were Dario he'd go public right away, and expects Anthropic's S1 to look great.

The softer June jobs report made investors think the Fed is less likely to raise interest rates at its meeting later this month, with the odds of a July rate hike now around 20 percent (down from 30 percent before the report). This implies the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting.

A US-Iran nuclear deal will not be negotiated in the ~60-day window Trump set; a deal is not going to happen and Trump will eventually stop talking about it.

Even under Goldman's baseline forecast for 9% of workers being displaced by AI over a ~10-year transition, Briggs expects the unemployment rate increase in any given year would be less than one percentage point, with no permanent net job loss over the long run. With U-3 currently near ~4.3%, a contained annual rise implies unemployment stays well below elevated levels through the AI transition window.

Rufo characterizes James Fishback as the 'Groyper candidate for governor of Florida' and predicts he will perform terribly in the Republican race, citing the precedent of Vivek Ramaswamy beating a Groyper-aligned challenger by 60-70 points. He frames Fishback's showing as an empirical test of how weak the racialist/online-right faction actually is with real conservative voters.

The Iranian regime will not be overthrown or removed; it will survive and there will be no US-recognized replacement leader such as Reza Pahlavi.

Millie Bright reaffirms her pre-tournament pick that Brazil will win the 2026 World Cup, saying she is still happy with tipping Brazil after their comeback win over Japan.

Andy Burnham is now almost certain to be the next UK prime minister; Starmer will step down and Burnham will take over, becoming PM by the end of July (around the third week of July).

Campbell argues Nigel Farage and Reform have peaked and are now plateauing or in decline, citing a YouGov poll showing Reform down a point while Labour rose, and predicting the wealth/donation scandals will erode Reform's 'man of the people' appeal over time. This is a bearish forecast on Farage's trajectory toward becoming Prime Minister.

The panel treats a LeBron-to-Knicks move as implausible, noting the Knicks just won the title and have delicate chemistry you don't disrupt, and joining the defending champs would be distasteful for LeBron.

Bout claims Zelenskyy's term has expired and he refuses to call new elections, clinging to power, implying Zelenskyy remains president rather than leaving office in the near term.

The DSA views 2028 and the presidency as a gigantic opportunity, on the backs of Mamdani's rise, but Mamdani himself cannot run for president because he is not a natural-born citizen (he confirms in the clip he does not want the Constitution changed and is focused on New York City).