# Kalshi Copy-the-Trade — Week of 2026-05-12

Date: 2026-07-15
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-15-kalshi-week-podcast-predictions

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# Kalshi Copy-the-Trade — Week of 2026-05-12

Cross-podcast prediction round-up, mapped to live Kalshi markets
11 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 → 2026-05-13 · 4 direct Kalshi matches, 2 proxy matches · prices snapshotted 2026-07-15 10:11 UTC
How to read this: we read this week's transcripts looking for concrete, near-term claims a speaker stuck their neck out on. For each one with a live Kalshi market, the green BET YES or red BET NO badge tells you which side to take to copy the speaker. The price is what you pay per share today; the dollar figure shows what $100 returns if the speaker is right. Direct matches are shown first.

11Predictions
4Direct Kalshi matches
2Proxy matches
5No market

Show:
All
Direct match
Proxy match
No market

Channel:
All channels
Pivot
The Bulwark Podcast
The Ezra Klein Show
The Journal.
The MeidasTouch Podcast
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
The Rest Is Football
The Rest Is Politics
The Ringer NBA Show

| Source | Speaker | Prediction | Copy the trade → |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot 22:30 | Scott Gallowaymedium medium | Galloway predicts OpenAI will delay its IPO while Anthropic proceeds and goes public first."I think Anthropic is still gonna get out... And then Anthropic goes out, doesn't delay, goes out. If I were Dario, I'd wanna be like, 'I'm on top, bitch. I'm going public.'"business Comcast Splits, OpenAI Weighs IPO Delay, and Buttigieg Targeted | DIRECT MATCH[BET YESKalshi ↗YES costs 80¢**$100** → **$125** if speaker is rightWill Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?Why this side: Galloway argues OpenAI delays while Anthropic IPOs without delay, so Anthropic goes public first — the 'Anthropic first' leg resolves YES.Low volume · closes 2040-01-01 · KXOAIANTH-40-ANTHIf Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaianth/open-ai-vs-anthropic/kxoaianth-40) |
| The MeidasTouch Podcast 1:07:37 | Ben Meiselasmedium medium | Meiselas forecasts drawn-out '60-day cycles' of stalled MOU implementation and no final US-Iran nuclear deal, with the problem punted to a future administration."in the best-case scenario... We go through fifteen cycles of sixty days of the charade and farce of this MOU existing, and then the problems get dumped on a new administration."foreign policy Tuesday Afternoon Breaking News Updates with Ben - 6/30/2026 | DIRECT MATCH[BET NOKalshi ↗NO costs 74¢**$100** → **$135** if speaker is rightWill the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?Why this side: Meiselas predicts no final nuclear deal, punted to a future administration, mapping to NO on a new US-Iran deal before Jan 1 2027.Low volume · closes 2027-01-01 · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27) |
| The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 17:38 | Rep. Jim Himeshigh near | Himes says a US-Iran nuclear deal will not be negotiated within the MOU's 60-day window; Kushner and Trump's real-estate negotiators won't reach a nuclear agreement."the idea that in sixty days, you know, Jared Kushner and, you know, a bunch of real estate guys are gonna get a deal negotiated on the, on the nuclear stuff is, is crazy. It's just not gonna happen."foreign policy What Comes After the Iran War? — with Rep. Jim Himes | DIRECT MATCH[BET NOKalshi ↗NO costs 93¢**$100** → **$108** if speaker is rightWill the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?Why this side: Himes says no nuclear deal in the ~60-day window (deal would need to land by ~mid-Aug); the Sep 1 2026 leg resolves NO if no US-Iran deal is signed before Sep 1.Low volume · closes 2026-09-01 · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEPIf the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27) |
| The Ringer NBA Show 1:08:20 | Logan Murdockhigh near | The hosts report Kawhi Leonard has been traded back to the Toronto Raptors and frame Toronto as a real Eastern Conference threat with him back."Kawhi Leonard has been traded, um, to the Toronto Raptors. He is back to the six, um, for Brandon Ingram, Grady Dick, two unprotected picks, one pick swap, two second round picks."sports LeBron No Longer a Laker. Plus, Kawhi Back in the Six! | DIRECT MATCH[BET YESKalshi ↗YES costs 80¢**$100** → **$125** if speaker is rightWhat will be Kawhi Leonard's next team?Why this side: Kawhi's move to Toronto is confirmed across multiple shows; the Toronto next-team leg remains active and resolves YES for the team he landed on.Low volume · closes 2026-10-21 · KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26KLEONARD2-TORIf Kawhi Leonard's next team is Toronto before Oct 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextteamnba/next-nba-team/kxnextteamnba-26kleonard2) |
| The Bulwark Podcast 38:26 | Susan Glassermedium long | Glasser predicts the US-Iran ceasefire will not produce a durable agreement, saying long-term stable peace between the US and Iran is very unlikely."I would be very skeptical... that there will be any long-term, uh, peace deal that comes out of this... it's very, very unlikely that there's going to be a long-term stable peace between the United States and Iran."foreign policy Susan Glasser: Our Money-Grubbing President | PROXY MATCH[BET NOKalshi ↗NO costs 54¢**$100** → **$185** if speaker is rightWill the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?Why this side: Glasser expects no durable US-Iran peace, so a signed new nuclear deal before Jan 1 2028 is unlikely; proxy for her broader 'no stable peace' claim.Low volume · closes 2028-01-01 · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27) |
| The Journal. 1:45 | Alex Osolahigh near | A soft June jobs report led investors to see a July Fed rate hike as unlikely (~20% odds), i.e. the Fed is expected not to raise rates at its late-July meeting."The softer June jobs report made investors think that the Fed is less likely to raise interest rates at its meeting later this month. They now put the odds of a July rate hike at about twenty percent."economy Why a Hot U.S. Job Market Cooled in June | PROXY MATCH[BET YESKalshi ↗YES costs 94¢**$100** → **$106** if speaker is rightWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?Why this side: Investors price only ~20% odds of a July hike, so a hold (Hike 0bps) is the expected base case; proxy because 'no hike' also technically includes a rate cut, which this leg would resolve NO.Low volume · closes 2026-07-29 · KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul) |
| The Ezra Klein Show 55:09 | Chris Rufohigh medium | Rufo predicts James Fishback, the Groyper-aligned candidate for Florida governor, will get 'absolutely trounced,' likening him to a candidate who lost by 60-70 points."in the case of someone like James Fishback... I suspect that he's gonna get absolutely trounced. It happened with Vivek running against a guy... He got blown out by, I don't know, 60, 70 points."elections Chris Rufo Thinks the Right Can Control This. I Don't. | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |
| The Rest Is Football 20:38 | Brad Friedelhigh near | Discussing England's upcoming Round of 16 tie against Mexico, Friedel says England are far better and will win the game (advancing to the quarterfinals)."England are so much better than Mexico... They score first, just get through the first 15 to 20 minutes, and they will win the game."sports Kane to the rescue as England squeeze past DR Congo | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |
| The Rest Is Football 20:34 | Gary Linekerspeculative long | After Brazil's comeback win over Japan, Lineker reaffirms his pre-tournament pick of Brazil to win the 2026 World Cup."You've tipped Brazil? I've tipped Brazil. And, and- Still, still happy with that? Still happy."sports Terrible Germany crash out as Brazil fight back | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |
| The Rest Is Politics 0:01 | Alastair Campbellhigh near | Campbell states Andy Burnham is 'certain' to become the next UK Prime Minister, with Starmer stepping down and Burnham taking over."Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, is now almost certain to be our next prime minister. In fact, I would say certain to be our next prime minister, barring something really weird happening."politics 548. Burnham vs. Westminster and Trump's Next Target | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |
| The Ringer NBA Show 0:01 | Justin Verrierhigh near | The hosts confirm Jaylen Brown has been traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, joining Maxey and Embiid."A lot of things have happened since the last time we recorded a podcast. Uh, Jaylen Brown is in Philadelphia."sports The Summer of Dumb: Jaylen Brown to the Sixers, the Lakers Bet It All on Kessler, and Much More | Group Chat | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |

**Method:** Predictions extracted by Gemini 2.5 Pro from per-segment transcripts in the Neon Postgres (table `segments`). 17 episodes selected this week (politics, sports, markets, tech) — extraction was tuned to keep only concrete, near/medium-horizon claims with a real chance of a Kalshi market existing, and to drop vague long-horizon takes. Each extracted prediction was searched against the local Kalshi market snapshot (790k markets, latest snapshot timestamps within the last hour) using keyword overlap; up to 12 candidates per prediction were passed back to Gemini, which judged direct/proxy/none and chose the YES/NO side to copy the speaker. Markets with YES ≥ 96¢ or NO ≥ 96¢ (effectively resolved) were dropped, as were markets closing within an hour.

**Payout math:** binary markets pay $1 per share if your side wins. So `$100 / buy_price = total payout if right`. A 25¢ YES share returns $4 per $1 you bet ($100 → $400). A 90¢ YES share returns $1.11 per $1 ($100 → $111). Profit is payout minus your stake.

**Disclaimer:** nothing here is investment advice. Prices were spot-snapshotted from a local mirror of the Kalshi feed and drift continuously — click through for live odds. The side choice is the model's reading of the prediction; verify on the market page before trading. Some prediction-extractor calls return identical predictions across two podcasts (e.g. the same series pick from two sports shows); these are kept as separate rows so you can see who said what.