What changed: the thesis was confirmed, not challenged. The WSJ reported (July 10) that Alito has hired a full roster of four law clerks for the October 2026 term and that people close to him don't expect a summer or fall retirement — corroborated by David Lat's clerk-hiring watch. The term-end window passed with nothing but the retracted NPR report, and the conservative-media "genuine announcement coming" chatter produced nothing in 12 days.
Why exit anyway: at 95¢ the edge is fully harvested — my ~96% equals what the price implies. Eighteen days remain to close, over the ~7-day threshold for riding the last cents, and the tail isn't strictly zero: Kennedy hired a full clerk slate in 2018 and retired anyway, and the death clause resolves at "last fair price" rather than a sure NO. Five cents over 18 days on 96% odds is roughly fee-level EV; we would not open this position today at this price. Liquidity is fine — 542 contracts resting at the 95¢ NO bid, 3,000+ at 94¢.