The thesis — that the "emergency EO" was an outside-activist draft the White House never adopted — is intact and arguably stronger. The White House presidential-actions list through Aug 7 shows no election-related action of any kind (the Aug 3/6 signings were citizenship, trade, and military matters), and the administration's actual election push in August is litigation: an Aug 3 emergency application asking the Supreme Court to revive the blocked March 2026 mail-ballot EO — the opposite of reaching for emergency powers. The main tail-risk voice, former White House counsel Ty Cobb, expects any emergency gambit "at or about the time of the elections," i.e. November — after this market's Sep 1 cutoff. But the market only closes early if the action is issued (we lose), so holding locks 93.5¢ for 24 more days to earn at most 6.5¢ against precisely the impulsive-declaration tail our own entry rationale flagged. Bank the +3.5¢.