# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (25 Jun 2026)

Date: 2026-06-25
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-25-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-06-25 · Horizon 45 days · Capital $10,000 · Methodology v3 (conviction-weighted, EV-agnostic sizing) · Picks count toward the public track record and are cleared for auto-copy.

Bottom line. This was an efficient week for Politics. The two biggest themes in the window — the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act enactment timeline and three imminent Supreme Court decisions — are either freshly and correctly priced on heavy volume (<48h ago) or carry no information edge over a market reading the same live feeds. After full diligence I deploy one pick and hold 94% cash. The single pick rides a mechanical timing constraint (the constitutional 10-day presentment clock), not a forecast of anyone's behaviour.

## 1 · How this was researched

**Selection mode: category-match.** `$CATEGORY = Politics` matched **386** active markets in trading_events.category = 'Politics' closing before 2026-08-09. No theme/keyword fallback was needed.

**Stage 1 — mechanical filter.** From the 386 I cut everything with 24h volume < 1,500, bid-ask spread > 5¢, YES bid ≥ 95¢ / ask ≤ 5¢, and every ticker already live in users' feeds (98 existing picks excluded up front). That left **18 candidates**.

**Stage 2 — diligence.** For each survivor I pulled the resolution **rules** text, a 14-day intraday history from market_snapshots, the live Kalshi orderbook (top-of-book + fillable depth), and primary-source news (Congress.gov, the White House, SCOTUSblog, wire services).

**Stage 3 / 3.5 — reject + entry-band screen.** Each candidate was tested for definitional traps, public-information-only edge, a price that already moved on the thesis in 48h, and fillability without ≥3¢ slippage; then gated by conviction tier and effective entry band. **17 of 18 candidates were rejected** — logged and shadow-tracked below.

Data: read-only Kalshi mirror (`trading_events`, `trading_markets`, `market_snapshots`) + Kalshi public orderbook API + web research. Prices are cents (0–100). All trades resolve to $0 or $1.

## 2 · Markets reviewed

18 candidates surviving the Stage-1 mechanical filter. "Side" = the side I'd take if I took one. Prices are live YES top-of-book at pick time (25 Jun).

| Ticker | Market | YES bid/ask | 24h vol | Side | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26 | Housing bill becomes law before Jul 1 | 31 / 34 | 40,152 | NO | PICK · MED |
| KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26 | Housing bill becomes law before Aug 1 | 87 / 91 | 58,078 | YES | reject |
| KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL16 | Housing bill becomes law before Jul 16 | 62 / 64 | 2,745 | YES | reject |
| KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL07 | Housing bill becomes law before Jul 7 | 45 / 47 | 4,800 | YES | reject |
| KXWATSONRNC | SCOTUS bars late-arriving mail ballots | 79 / 80 | 7,178 | YES | reject |
| KXHAITITPS-26AUG | SCOTUS lets Trump end Haiti TPS (Miot) | 70 / 76 | 5,608 | YES | reject |
| KXCHATRIEUSA-26AUG | SCOTUS rules geofence warrant unlawful | 23 / 25 | 1,783 | NO | reject |
| KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-2 | Trump signs >2 EOs Jun 21–27 | 52 / 54 | 4,963 | NO | reject |
| KXDEFAPPROP-JUL24 | DoD supplemental passes House before Jul 24 | 30 / 31 | 2,051 | NO | reject |
| KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL30 | Max daily Hormuz transit ≥30 in June | 94 / 97 | 16,307 | YES | reject |
| KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-6.0 | Exactly 6 bills signed in June | 37 / 41 | 2,143 | YES | reject |
| KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-5.0 | Exactly 5 bills signed in June | 23 / 28 | 5,242 | YES | reject |
| KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-2 | Trump attends ≥2 World Cup matches | 33 / 36 | 1,945 | YES | reject |
| KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-3 | Trump attends ≥3 World Cup matches | 10 / 11 | 3,381 | YES | reject |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B169 | Trump 160–179 Truth posts (wk Jun 21) | 13 / 14 | 3,860 | YES | reject |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-T220 | Trump >220 Truth posts (wk Jun 21) | 13 / 14 | 3,547 | YES | reject |
| KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL24 | Fable 5 US access restored before Jul 24 | 84 / 86 | 1,736 | YES | reject |
| KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL31 | Fable 5 US access restored before Jul 31 | 90 / 91 | 7,762 | YES | reject |

## 3 · The pick

### KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26 · BUY NO @ 0.71 Medium conviction Favorite band · 71¢

"Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before Jul 1, 2026?" — taking NO (it will not be law by Jul 1).

My probability (NO wins)88%
Market implied (NO)~70% (YES bid/ask 31 / 34 → NO ≈ 69–71)
Edge+17–18¢ / contract (for the record only — did not set size)
Clusterhousing-bill-timing

My NO 88%
12%

vs market NO ≈ 70% / YES ≈ 30%.

**Mispricing thesis.** The _21st Century ROAD to Housing Act_ (H.R. 6644) — which caps/penalizes large institutional-investor purchases of single-family homes — **passed both chambers this week** (Senate 85-5 on Jun 22, House 358-32 on Jun 23) and now awaits the President. On Jun 24 Trump **publicly cancelled the signing ceremony**, saying he won't sign until Congress passes the SAVE America Act (voter-ID), which itself lacks the votes. The market correctly crashed the "before-Jul-1" leg from ~98¢ to ~30¢ on 40k+ volume. But ~30¢ YES still over-prices the only path to enactment _by Jul 1_:

- **The 10-day presentment clock cannot get there.** A bill becomes law without signature 10 days (Sundays excepted) after presentment, if Congress is in session. Even assuming presentment on Jun 23, that clock lands ~**Jul 7–8** — after Jul 1. So automatic enactment is mechanically impossible before Jul 1.
- **A veto override can't get there either.** No veto has issued; a veto + re-votes in both chambers cannot complete in 6 days.
- **That leaves only a voluntary Trump signature** in the next 6 days — which he very publicly refused on Jun 24, conditioning it on a bill that can't pass. YES-by-Jul-1 collapses to P(Trump reverses a fresh public stance within 6 days). I put that at ~12%.

Cleanest way this loses: Trump is a deal-maker and abruptly trades the signature for a partial win (or just signs to claim the popular housing bill) before Jul 1. A single Truth Social post + signing event resolves YES. That single discretionary act is exactly why this is Medium, not High, conviction.

**Why NO and not the later legs:** the same presentment math makes the _Jul 16_ and _Aug 1_ legs likely-YES, but those hinge on an _unconfirmed_ presentment date and on Congress not handing Trump a pocket-veto window — and they already moved on the news. The Jul 1 leg is the one where the mechanics give a hard floor regardless of presentment timing. See rejects.

Limit / entryBUY NO @ 0.71 (live NO ≈ 0.69–0.71; effective entry 71¢ → favorite band)
Size850 contracts · cost $603.50 (6.0% of capital) — under the 7% Medium-tier cap
Max payout$850.00 · profit if NO wins +$246.50
EV (record only)+17¢/contract → +$144.50 · EV% ≈ 24% (EV did not drive sizing)
Liquidity (entry context)YES bid 31 / ask 34 · NO fillable depth ≤71¢ ≈ 1,055 contracts (YES bids 31×32, 30×72, 29×951) · 24h vol 40,152 · OI 21,949 · slippage to fill 850 ≈ 2¢
Price historyJun 11 ~31¢ → spiked to 98¢ on Jun 23 (Senate/House passage) → crashed to ~29¢ on Jun 24 (Trump cancels signing) on 39k volume; trading 22–38¢ today.
Close2026-07-01 03:59 UTC

## 4 · Recommended $10,000 portfolio

One pick deployed; the rest of the book is cash. In an efficient week, cash is the correct position — padding the slate with coin-flips and tails is precisely what the resolved v1/v2 record punished.

| Pick | Action | Limit | Contracts | Cost | % cap | Max payout | EV $ | Conviction | Cluster |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26 | BUY NO | 0.71 | 850 | $603.50 | 6.0% | $850.00 | +144.50 | Medium | `housing-bill-timing` |
| **Total deployed** | **$603.50** | **6.0%** | **$850.00** | **+144.50** |  |  |  |  |  |
| **Cash reserve** | **$9,396.50** | **94.0%** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

Blended deployed EV ≈ +24% on capital at risk · dollar edge ≈ +$144.50. Figures are for the calibration record; sizing was set by conviction tier + entry band only.

### Cluster exposure

| Cluster | Cost | % of capital | Cap (15%) | OK? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `housing-bill-timing` | $603.50 | 6.0% | $1,500 | ✓ well under |

No single underlying thesis can flip the run's sign. Every correlated leg of the housing bill (Jul 7 / Jul 16 / Aug 1) was rejected, so the cluster carries only this one position.

### Conviction exposure

| Tier | Cost deployed | % of capital | Per-pick cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | $0.00 | 0.0% | 15% |
| Medium | $603.50 | 6.0% | 7% |
| Low | $0.00 | 0.0% | 3% |

### Risk profile

- **Worst case:** Trump signs (or the bill otherwise becomes law) before Jul 1 → lose $603.50.
- **Best / most-likely case:** No enactment by Jul 1 → NO resolves → +$246.50 (~88% probability).
- **Concentration:** single position, single thesis, 6.0% at risk; 94% cash. No correlation across the book.

### Execution notes

- **Limit discipline:** rest a NO buy at 0.71 (≡ sell-YES at 0.29). Depth supports the full 850 ≤71¢; do not chase above 0.72 — the residual edge is ~17¢ and disappears with slippage.
- **Invalidation / exit:** any credible signal Trump will sign before Jul 1 — a scheduled signing, a SAVE-Act/housing deal, or a Truth Social reversal — kills the thesis; close immediately. Confirmation of _presentment_ doesn't matter for this leg (the 10-day clock can't reach Jul 1 regardless).
- **Watchlist (not deployed):** KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26 YES — if it drifts below ~0.84 it becomes a cheap structural buy (veto-proof margins + 10-day clock make Aug-1 enactment ~90%). KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL16 YES — buy only if the enrolled bill's presentment date is publicly confirmed before ~Jul 4.
- **Hedge:** none needed at 6% exposure.

## 5 · What I rejected and why

Every Stage-2 survivor that didn't make the cut is logged and **shadow-tracked to settlement** — if the rejects beat the pick, the screen adds nothing, and that is itself a finding. Entry-band cuts (coin-flips 35–60¢ and tails <35¢) are flagged so the discipline is visible.

| Ticker | Side | Price | My p% | Band | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26 | YES | 89 | 91 | deep fav | ~1–2¢ edge, fair post-news; repriced on 58k vol <48h ago. |
| KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL16 | YES | 63 | 70 | favorite | Leans YES via the 10-day clock, but hinges on an _unconfirmed_ presentment date; freshly moved. |
| KXHFHOUSING-27-26JUL07 | YES | 47 | 50 | coin-flip | 35–60¢ band, conviction not high; turns on the exact presentment date I can't pin down. |
| KXWATSONRNC | YES | 79 | 78 | favorite | No edge over market on an undecided SCOTUS case; opinion can drop any day (Jun 25 is an opinion day). |
| KXHAITITPS-26AUG | YES | 73 | 70 | favorite | Jun 16 "dismiss as improvidently granted" motion adds resolution risk; no edge; imminent decision. |
| KXCHATRIEUSA-26AUG | NO | 76 | 73 | favorite | Court reported "sharply divided"; no edge; decision imminent. |
| KXEOWEEK-26JUN27-2 | NO | 48 | 50 | coin-flip | Only 2 EOs signed so far (both Jun 22); reaching ≥3 in 3 days is a true toss-up. No edge. |
| KXDEFAPPROP-JUL24 | NO | 69 | 70 | favorite | No evidence of a specific DoD supplemental on the House calendar; low conviction, thin volume. |
| KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL30 | YES | 95 | 98 | deep fav | Thin edge; same underlying as already-published Hormuz picks (correlated). |
| KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-6.0 | YES | 39 | 30 | coin-flip | Exact-count bucket; no defensible edge, noisy amid the signing standoff. |
| KXBILLSCOUNT-26JUN-5.0 | YES | 24 | 25 | tail | Exact-count bucket (tail band); inherently low-edge. |
| KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-2 | YES | 35 | 38 | coin-flip | Coin-flip band & same cluster as published Trump-World-Cup picks (correlated). |
| KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-3 | YES | 11 | 12 | tail | Sub-35¢ tail; same cluster as published Trump-World-Cup picks. |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B169 | YES | 13 | 13 | tail | Sub-35¢ tail, no lottery slot; post-count noise. |
| KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-T220 | YES | 13 | 13 | tail | Sub-35¢ tail; post-count noise. |
| KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL24 | YES | 85 | 85 | favorite | Same cluster as published FABLERESTORE picks (correlated); thin edge. |
| KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL31 | YES | 90 | 90 | deep fav | Same cluster as published FABLERESTORE picks; >90 deep favorite, no edge. |

**Pattern.** 1 coin-flip-or-tail cut by the entry-band screen for every favorite cut for "no edge / freshly priced." The two dominant themes (housing-bill timing, SCOTUS OT2025) are efficient; the noise/count markets are un-edgeable. A 1-pick book is the honest answer here.

## 6 · Sources

- NPR — [Congress passes the largest housing affordability bill in decades — and Trump cancels the signing](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/23/nx-s1-5867575/congress-passes-housing-affordability-bill) (Jun 23, 2026)
- CNBC — [Trump cancels signing of bipartisan housing bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/24/trump-cancels-housing-bill-signing-save-america-act.html) (Jun 24, 2026)
- TIME — [Trump Says He Won't Sign Housing Bill Until SAVE Act Is Passed](https://time.com/article/2026/06/24/trump-housing-bill-save-america-act-voting-restrictions/)
- Al Jazeera — [Trump cancels housing bill signing, demands US voter ID law first](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/24/trump-cancels-housing-bill-signing-demands-us-voter-id-law-first) (notes the 10-day presentment / veto-proof margins)
- Congress.gov — [H.R.6644 — 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, all actions](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/6644/all-actions)
- GovTrack — [Senate Vote #182 on H.R. 6644 (Jun 22, 2026)](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/119-2026/s182) · [bill overview](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr6644)
- Mayer Brown — [Senate advances housing legislation with institutional-investor ban](https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2026/03/us-senate-advances-housing-legislation-that-includes-a-ban-on-institutional-investors-purchasing-single-family-homes)
- SCOTUSblog — [Watson v. RNC argument recap](https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/03/court-appears-ready-to-overturn-state-law-allowing-for-late-arriving-mail-in-ballots/) · [Trump v. Miot](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/trump-v-miot/) · [Chatrie v. United States](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/chatrie-v-united-states/) · [cases yet to be decided](https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/the-most-important-cases-yet-to-be-decided/)
- Supreme Court (docket) — [Miot motion to dismiss writ as improvidently granted (Jun 16, 2026)](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-1083/413365/20260616120501897_Miot%20251084%20Motion%20to%20Dismiss%20Writ%20as%20Improvidently%20Granted.pdf)
- Federal Register — [2026 Trump executive orders](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026); White House — [executive orders](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/) (2 signed in the Jun 21–27 window as of pick time)

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**Footnote.** Data sources: read-only Kalshi data mirror (`trading_events`, `trading_markets`, `market_snapshots`), the Kalshi public orderbook API, and primary-source web research cited above. Probabilities are **subjective estimates**, not guarantees; prediction-market contracts resolve to $1 or $0, and a losing contract is a total loss of premium. This is research, not financial advice. v3 methodology: sizing is set by conviction tier and entry band only — `edge_cents` / `ev_pct` are recorded for calibration and do not drive position size.