# Sentinel — Position Review (PM) · 2026-08-13

Date: 2026-08-13
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-13-kalshi-sentinel-review-pm

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# Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-08-13 · 3 triggered picks reviewed · quotes fetched live from Kalshi at review time

**3 exits, 0 holds.** All three tripped `capital_free` (≥95¢).
  Every thesis re-checked out as intact — these are winners being closed for capital efficiency,
  not losers being cut. In each case the market has caught up to our probability and the residual
  1–4¢ over 19 days to the Sep 1 close isn't worth the tail risk or the locked capital.

 ─────────── Signal 718 ─────────── 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 718 · source audit

NO
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 98¢

Entry92¢
Now (exec)98¢
Peak98.5¢
P&L+6¢
Our prob99%
Mkt implies98–99%
ClosesSep 1 (19d)

Thesis fully intact: the strait remains closed to commercial shipping on day ~164 —
    the latest [PortWatch print (Aug 9) is 1 transit/day](https://straits.live/) against the 60/day
    7-day-average threshold, war-risk insurance is ~30× pre-crisis, and despite the
    [near-final US–Iran–Oman deal](https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-deal-nears),
    [Iran says a deal alone won't reopen the waterway](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-08-08/iran-says-deal-on-strait-of-hormuz-is-close-but-will-not-open-the-waterway-by-itself).
    But at a 98¢ exit vs our ~99% probability, edge is gone: ~1¢ of upside over 19 days against the
    deal-announcement / queue-flush tail (245+ vessels holding offshore). Classic capital-free exit.
    Liquidity is deep — 1,275 contracts at 98¢, ~64k at 97¢.

 ─────────── Signal 734 ─────────── 

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · signal 734 · source audit

NO
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 98¢

Entry92¢
Now (exec)98¢
Peak98.5¢
P&L+6¢
Our prob99%
Mkt implies98–99%
ClosesSep 1 (19d)

Duplicate position on the same market and side as signal 718 — identical evidence and
    identical call. PortWatch daily prints of 1–8 in August make a 7-day moving average above 60 before Sep 1
    physically implausible even if a deal were signed tomorrow: insurers put normalization
    _months_ out and Iran still controls transit authorization, exactly as the original thesis argued.
    The remaining 2¢ over 19 days isn't worth the tail. Exit at 98¢.

 ─────────── Signal 808 ─────────── 

Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026
KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · signal 808 · source audit

YES
capital_free
intact
EXIT @ 96¢

Entry93¢
Now (exec)96¢
Peak96.5¢
P&L+3¢
Our prob98%
Mkt implies96–97%
ClosesSep 1 (19d)

Thesis intact: 13 of 31 August days are already banked at zero trips, Mar-a-Lago is
    seasonally closed, and [pool reports](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/) plus the
    Bedminster flight restriction (Aug 8–18) put Trump on his usual DC / New Jersey August rotation.
    The only tail is a Palm-Beach-track hurricane pulling a property visit, and
    [NOAA's updated outlook is below-average](https://cbs12.com/news/local/florida-tropical-news-noaa-releases-their-final-updated-forecast-for-the-2026-hurricane-season-below-average-atlantic-basin-tropics-storms-tropical-7-13-named-storms-2-6-hurricanes)
    with no named system near Florida today. Still: 96¢ bid vs ~98% true odds is 1–2¢ of edge over 19 days —
    we would not open YES at today's 97¢ ask, so we don't hold it either. Exit at 96¢
    (2,658 contracts at the bid).

Sentinel desk · decisions.json written alongside this report · quotes: Kalshi trade-api v2, 2026-08-13