2026-06-29 · category Politics · budget $1000
2 picks · $19 deployed of $1000 · 7 logged rejects
| Ticker | Market | Side | Conviction | Consensus vs market | Size | Per-model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL50 |
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in June 2026? | NO @ 20c | LOW | 23.7% vs 20c edge 3.7c · spread 1.145 · 4/6 agree |
57 ($11) | · claude-opus-4.8 NO 55 · deepseek-r1-0528 YES 88 · gemini-3.1-pro-preview YES 80 · kimi-k2-thinking NO 80 · gpt-5.1 YES 81 · grok-4.20 YES 68 |
| Thesis: Daily peaks routinely exceed target Rationale: 2021-2024 data shows regular 55+ vessel days during normal operations; no evidence suggesting capacity degradation | ||||||
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN28-T200 |
Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026? | NO @ 19c | LOW | 21.5% vs 19c edge 2.5c · spread 0.853 · 4/6 agree |
40 ($8) | · claude-opus-4.8 YES 60 ✓ deepseek-r1-0528 NO 40 · gemini-3.1-pro-preview YES 81 ✓ kimi-k2-thinking YES 95 · gpt-5.1 YES 82 · grok-4.20 YES 78 |
| Thesis: 200 weekly transits is a very low threshold for Hormuz Rationale: Daily average of 35-45 transits makes 200/week a near-certainty. Market pricing at 50% fails to account for base rate from IMF PortWatch historical data. | ||||||
| Ticker | Market | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN28-T175 | Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (1.3c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-MBS | Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet before Jul 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (0.2c < 2.0c) |
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26JUL01 | Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.2c < 2.0c) |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN28-T250 | Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-1.2c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B149 | Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.7c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B129 | Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.2c < 2.0c) |
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B169 | Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026? | no edge after shrinkage (-0.3c < 2.0c) |
Probabilities are subjective; contracts can resolve to zero. Not financial advice.