For each prediction we snapshot the YES mid-price (yes_bid + yes_ask) / 2 nearest the podcast publish date, then again at +1d, +3d, and now. We then express the move in the speaker's favor (mirrors the sign for NO picks). Positive ¢ = market moved toward the speaker's call. Coverage limited by snapshot density.
Section 2 told us markets roughly moved in speakers' favor on aggregate. But that's not causation — maybe these markets were already drifting toward the speakers' calls before the podcasts dropped. Here we compare the 2-day window before publish (pre-event trend) against the 2-day window spanning publish (post-event move). The difference is what the podcast added above the prior trend.
| Speaker | Market | Pre-publish drift (in favor) | Post-publish drift (in favor) | Excess move (post − pre) | Volume ratio (post 24h / pre 24h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe House The Bill Simmons Podcast |
KXNBASERIESSPREAD-26CLEDETR2-DET2pick YES |
-22¢ | +3¢ | +25¢ | 1.4x |
| Big Cat Pardon My Take |
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC40pick YES |
+20¢ | +3¢ | -17¢ | 0.8x |
| Rory Stewart The Rest Is Politics |
KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABURpick YES |
+6¢ | -4¢ | -10¢ | 0.7x |
| Rory Stewart The Rest Is Politics |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KSTAUKpick YES |
+17¢ | +8¢ | -9¢ | 3.2x |
| Big Cat Pardon My Take |
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DETpick YES |
-10¢ | -2¢ | +8¢ | 0.3x |
| Hank Pardon My Take |
KXLBJRETIRE-26pick YES |
+5¢ | +1¢ | -4¢ | 2.0x |
| Cam'ron First Take |
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DETpick YES |
-10¢ | -13¢ | -3¢ | 2.6x |
| Jay Williams First Take |
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DETpick NO |
+10¢ | +13¢ | +3¢ | 2.6x |
| Stephen A. Smith First Take |
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DETpick YES |
-10¢ | -13¢ | -3¢ | 2.6x |
| Paul Bissonnette Pardon My Take |
KXNHLSERIES-26MTLBUFR2-MTLpick YES |
+16¢ | +20¢ | +3¢ | 1.5x |
| Bill Simmons The Bill Simmons Podcast |
KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT-BOSpick YES |
-1¢ | -4¢ | -2¢ | 2.5x |
| Kara Swisher Pivot |
KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01pick NO |
-1¢ | +1¢ | +2¢ | 13.0x |
| Steph McGovern The Rest Is Money |
KXNEXTUKPM-30-WSpick YES |
+2¢ | +3¢ | +2¢ | 4.5x |
| Chris Vernon The Bill Simmons Podcast |
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-DETNYKpick YES |
-3¢ | -2¢ | +1¢ | 0.6x |
| Tommy Vietor Pod Save America |
KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DRpick YES |
+1¢ | 0¢ | -1¢ | 10.2x |
Coverage: 20 of 33 picks had snapshot data both 2 days before and 2 days after publish. The rest had gaps in the local mirror around that date — usually because the market wasn't being tracked yet or the bot had downtime.
| Outcome | Speaker | Prediction | Market & pick | Price track | In favor (now) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORRECT |
Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
2026-05-12
|
China will NOT announce acceptance of imported Nvidia H200 chips during the Trump-Xi summit.
|
PICK · NO
U.S.-China AI safety channel
KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-AISA · PROXY |
at pub70¢
+1d-24¢
+3d-46¢
nowsettled NO
|
+67¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
2026-05-12
|
Donald Trump will publicly announce Chinese commitments to purchase Boeing aircraft during his China trip.
|
PICK · YES
Boeing aircraft purchases
KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-BOEING · DIRECT |
at pub86¢
+1d-66¢
+3d+8¢
nowsettled YES
|
-60¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Tamara Keith (NPR senior political correspondent)
Up First
2026-05-12
|
NPR's Tamara Keith notes that observers expect China may announce additional Boeing aircraft purchases during Trump's Beijing visit this week, though she caveats that announced agreements on Trump foreign trips often turn out to be less than meets the eye.
|
PICK · YES
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on securing Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft during his China trip?
KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-BOEING · DIRECT |
at pub86¢
+1d-66¢
+3d+8¢
nowsettled YES
|
-60¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
2026-05-12
|
Donald Trump will publicly announce Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. soybeans/agricultural products during his China trip.
|
PICK · YES
U.S. soybean purchases
KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-SOYA · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d+5¢
+3d+22¢
nowsettled YES
|
-54¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Tamara Keith (NPR senior political correspondent)
Up First
2026-05-12
|
NPR's Tamara Keith reports that observers expect China to announce additional purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm products during Trump's state visit to Beijing this week.
|
PICK · YES
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on securing Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans during his China trip?
KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-SOYA · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d+5¢
+3d+22¢
nowsettled YES
|
-54¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Rory Stewart
The Rest Is Politics
2026-05-12
|
Keir Starmer will survive the cabinet pressure today and remain Prime Minister through the immediate confidence crisis — he'll 'Joe Biden it' rather than step down now.
|
PICK · NO
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026?
KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15 · DIRECT |
at pub28¢
+1d-22¢
+3d-27¢
nowsettled NO
|
+27¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Paul Bissonnette
Pardon My Take
2026-05-11
|
If the Montreal Canadiens take a 3-1 series lead, they will successfully close out the series against the Buffalo Sabres.
|
PICK · YES
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres 2026 2nd Round series winner?
KXNHLSERIES-26MTLBUFR2-MTL · PROXY |
at pub68¢
+1d+1¢
+3d-18¢
nowsettled YES
|
+12¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Jay Williams
First Take
2026-05-12
|
The Cleveland Cavaliers will win their playoff series against the Detroit Pistons.
|
PICK · NO
Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner?
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d-12¢
+3d-44¢
nowsettled NO
|
+5¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Big Cat
Pardon My Take
2026-05-11
|
The Oklahoma City Thunder will sweep the Los Angeles Lakers in four games.
|
PICK · YES
Will Oklahoma City win 4-0 in the Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC40 · DIRECT |
at pub80¢
+1d+4¢
+3d—
nowsettled YES
|
+2¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| CORRECT |
Raja Bell
Real Ones
The Ringer NBA Show
|
2026-05-12|The New York Knicks will win their next playoff series, benefiting from their extended rest period.
|
PICK · YES
Will New York cover -1.5 games in the Atlanta vs New York 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs?
KXNBASERIESSPREAD-26ATLNYKR1-NYK2 · PROXY |
at pub—
+1d—
+3d—
nowsettled YES
|
—¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| WRONG |
Joe House
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
The Detroit Pistons will defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in their playoff series.
|
PICK · YES
Will Detroit cover -1.5 games in the Cleveland vs Detroit 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?
KXNBASERIESSPREAD-26CLEDETR2-DET2 · PROXY |
at pub46¢
+1d-1¢
+3d-12¢
nowsettled NO
|
-35¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| WRONG |
Chris Vernon
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
The New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals.
|
PICK · YES
Will Detroit vs New York be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-DETNYK · DIRECT |
at pub72¢
+1d-2¢
+3d-14¢
nowsettled NO
|
-8¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| WRONG |
Big Cat
Pardon My Take
2026-05-11
|
The Detroit Pistons will win their playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
|
PICK · YES
Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner?
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d0¢
+3d-12¢
nowsettled NO
|
-5¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| WRONG |
Cam'ron
First Take
2026-05-12
|
The Detroit Pistons will defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers to win their current playoff series.
|
PICK · YES
Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner?
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d-12¢
+3d-44¢
nowsettled NO
|
-5¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| WRONG |
Stephen A. Smith
First Take
2026-05-12
|
The Detroit Pistons will win their playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
|
PICK · YES
Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner?
KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d-12¢
+3d-44¢
nowsettled NO
|
-5¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Rory Stewart
The Rest Is Politics
2026-05-12
|
If Starmer is replaced, an Andy Burnham-style 'change' candidate from outside the cabinet is the most credible internal Labour pick — analogous to Boris Johnson succeeding Theresa May.
|
PICK · YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?
KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABUR · DIRECT |
at pub32¢
+1d0¢
+3d+20¢
now62¢ live
|
+30¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Steph McGovern
The Rest Is Money
2026-05-12
|
If Starmer falls, Wes Streeting is the leadership contender best positioned to satisfy bond markets and emerge as the next UK PM, given his growth-focused agenda versus Rayner's tax-hike pitch or Burnham's public-ownership instincts.
|
PICK · YES
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?
KXNEXTUKPM-30-WS · DIRECT |
at pub20¢
+1d-6¢
+3d-10¢
now4¢ live
|
-16¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Tate Frazier
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
The Sacramento Kings will trade up to the number five pick to draft Darius Acuff.
|
PICK · YES
Will Darius Acuff be drafted by Sacramento?
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26DACU-SAC · DIRECT |
at pub17¢
+1d+16¢
+3d+14¢
now31¢ live
|
+14¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Hank
Pardon My Take
2026-05-11
|
LeBron James will retire or leave the Lakers, making this his final game for the franchise.
|
PICK · YES
Will LeBron James announce his retirement in 2026?
KXLBJRETIRE-26 · PROXY |
at pub26¢
+1d0¢
+3d-7¢
now14¢ live
|
-12¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Kara Swisher
Pivot
2026-05-12
|
SpaceX will hold an initial public offering in June.
|
PICK · NO
When will SpaceX IPO?
KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 · DIRECT |
at pub12¢
+1d-3¢
+3d0¢
now2¢ live
|
+11¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Rory Stewart
The Rest Is Politics
2026-05-12
|
It is a certainty Keir Starmer cannot win the next general election; the only question is when, not if, Labour replaces him.
|
PICK · YES
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KSTAUK · PROXY |
at pub86¢
+1d-18¢
+3d-10¢
now76¢ live
|
-10¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Bill Simmons
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
The Boston Celtics are the favorites to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo in a trade.
|
PICK · YES
What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team?
KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT-BOS · DIRECT |
at pub20¢
+1d0¢
+3d-4¢
now10¢ live
|
-10¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Alice Miranda Ollstein
Today, Explained
2026-05-12
|
The Supreme Court is likely to duck the merits of Louisiana's challenge to FDA telehealth/mail-order mifepristone rules by ruling Louisiana lacks standing, so no nationwide restrictions on mail-order mifepristone will take effect in the immediate term.
|
PICK · NO
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that nationwide restrictions on mail-order mifepristone take effect before Jun 1, 2026?
KXMIFEPRISTONEMAIL-26-JUN01 · DIRECT |
at pub10¢
+1d+2¢
+3d-8¢
now2¢ live
|
+8¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Chris Vernon
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
The Memphis Grizzlies will select Cam Boozer with the third overall pick in the NBA Draft.
|
PICK · YES
Will Cameron Boozer be drafted by Memphis?
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26CBOO-MEM · DIRECT |
at pub42¢
+1d+12¢
+3d+3¢
now50¢ live
|
+7¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Alastair Campbell
The Rest Is Politics
2026-05-12
|
On the current trajectory, Nigel Farage and Reform UK are positioned to win the next UK general election, with Labour collapsing and the Tories also failing.
|
PICK · NO
Will Labour win the next U.K. election?
KXUKPARTY-29-L · DIRECT |
at pub24¢
+1d0¢
+3d0¢
now28¢ live
|
-4¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Chris Vernon
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
AJ Dybantsa will be drafted first overall, and Darryn Peterson will be drafted second overall by the Utah Jazz.
|
PICK · YES
Will Darryn Peterson be drafted by Utah?
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26DPET-UTA · DIRECT |
at pub52¢
+1d+0¢
+3d+4¢
now56¢ live
|
+4¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Joe House
The Bill Simmons Podcast
2026-05-11
|
The Washington Wizards will select AJ Dybantsa with the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft.
|
PICK · YES
Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted by Washington?
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26ADYB-WSH · DIRECT |
at pub70¢
+1d+0¢
+3d-4¢
now72¢ live
|
+2¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Tommy Vietor
Pod Save America
2026-05-12
|
Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms despite Republican redistricting gains.
|
PICK · YES
D-House, R-Senate
KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DR · PROXY |
at pub30¢
+1d+1¢
+3d+1¢
now32¢ live
|
+2¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Chao Deng (WSJ)
The Journal.
2026-05-12
|
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its June 2026 meeting following the high inflation report.
|
PICK · YES
Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 · DIRECT |
at pub96¢
+1d0¢
+3d0¢
now96¢ live
|
-1¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Ben Meiselas
The MeidasTouch Podcast
2026-05-12
|
The Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates due to the economic fallout from the Iran conflict.
|
PICK · YES
Fed maintains rate
KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 · DIRECT |
at pub96¢
+1d0¢
+3d0¢
now96¢ live
|
-1¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Scott Horsley (NPR business correspondent)
Up First
2026-05-12
|
NPR's Scott Horsley predicts the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, since the April jobs report showed no labor-market deterioration and the Fed has limited ability to address an energy supply shock.
|
PICK · YES
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?
KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 · DIRECT |
at pub96¢
+1d0¢
+3d0¢
now96¢ live
|
-1¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
James Comey
The Bulwark Podcast
2026-05-12
|
The Trump DOJ's investigations into figures like Jerome Powell are intimidation theater; they will not actually charge or convict the Federal Reserve chair.
|
PICK · NO
Will Jerome Powell be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JPOW · DIRECT |
at pub8¢
+1d0¢
+3d0¢
now8¢ live
|
-1¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| OPEN |
Philip Wegman
Today, Explained
2026-05-12
|
Trump will not back a federal abortion ban; his administration is sticking with a states-only framework despite anti-abortion lobbying from groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
|
PICK · NO
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that nationwide restrictions on mail-order mifepristone take effect before Jan 1, 2027?
KXMIFEPRISTONEMAIL-26-27JAN · PROXY |
at pub—
+1d—
+3d—
now12¢ live
|
—¢
vs publish, in speaker's favor
|
| Speaker | Picks | Correct | Wrong | Open | Hit rate (settled) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Galloway | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Tamara Keith (NPR senior political correspondent) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jay Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Rory Stewart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 100% |
| Paul Bissonnette | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Raja Bell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Big Cat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Bill Simmons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Tate Frazier | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Kara Swisher | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Chao Deng (WSJ) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Ben Meiselas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Scott Horsley (NPR business correspondent) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Alice Miranda Ollstein | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| James Comey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Steph McGovern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Alastair Campbell | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Hank | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Tommy Vietor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Philip Wegman | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Joe House | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| Chris Vernon | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0% |
| Cam'ron | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |