Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)
Report date 2026-07-31 · Horizon 45 days · Capital $2,500 · Universe: targets.json (Stage-0 allowlist, 72 Tier-1 series + Tier-2), generated 2026-07-31T16:06Z · Methodology: Keel v4 (probability-before-price, precedent-fed, one leg per cluster)
Verdict: 0 picks. 100% cash ($2,500 of $2,500).
The Tier-1/Tier-2 universe produced exactly two markets that survived the mechanical screen with a live book, and both are legs of the same story — the Todd Blanche Attorney-General confirmation — which the market violently and, on the evidence, correctly repriced in the 72 hours before this run (YES on the committee leg fell 71¢ → 19¢; on the confirmation leg 60¢ → 12¢). Buying NO after that move is the exact post-move chase the Stage-3 48-hour rule exists to block, and the residual edge after blending (≤2¢) is inside noise on books that traded 67k and 19k contracts today. Everything else in the universe within the horizon is either a zero-volume book, a near-settled ask (≤5¢), or out of the entry bands on both sides. An efficient week; cash is the position.
Why the slate collapsed to two
Of 81 open target-series markets closing before Sep 15: 26 close beyond the horizon at the series level (KXSAVEACT, KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE, KXFEDERALCHARGE, KXARREST, KXLEADERSOUT etc. all close Nov 2026 – Jan 2029); of the 81 in-horizon markets, 60 failed the liquidity floor (live vol24h < 500 — the zero-volume phantom-edge graveyard), 13 failed the near-settled cuts (YES ask ≤ 5¢ or bid ≥ 95¢), 4 are existing picks, and 2 passed liquidity but are band-dead on both sides (KXCRITICALITY). Survivors: KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26SEP01 and KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01.
The Blanche cluster — full diligence, then reject
cluster: blanche-ag-confirmationarchetypes: multi-news-other · confirmation/enactresolver: Kalshi via Source-Agency reporting / official Senate action
Process state (primary sources): Pam Bondi was fired Apr 2, 2026; Todd Blanche has run DOJ as acting AG since. His nomination was transmitted Jun 8; the Judiciary hearing ran Jul 15–16; the Jul 29 markup was postponed after Sens. Cornyn and Tillis withheld support, demanding written DOJ assurances on the Trump–IRS settlement (the $1.8B "anti-weaponization" fund and pre-settlement audit immunity). On Jul 30 Trump said he has "no objection" to withdrawing the nomination and resubmitting in January 2027 once both senators have left the Senate. The Senate's last session day before the August recess is ~Aug 7; it returns Sep 14 — after both markets' Sep 1 deadlines. The only YES path is a DOJ cave + markup (+ floor vote, for AGCONF) inside Aug 3–7.
Precedents consulted: KXAGCONF-26-JUN01/JUN15/JUL01 all resolved NO — lesson: "price a Cabinet confirmation clock from formal transmittal… five to six weeks is the floor even with a same-party majority." KXRECNCH-26-JUN03: "a leadership-announced target date is the optimistic tail, not the median" — Tillis's markup "as early as Tuesday" is exactly that tail. KXAGCONF rules_secondary: withdrawal → immediate NO.
Probability, formed before the book: committee reports before Sep 1: 12% pre-market (no forcing function — Blanche stays acting AG, Trump publicly priced his own exit ramp, DOJ has stonewalled the written assurances for weeks); confirmed before Sep 1: 8% pre-market (adds a same-week floor vote, and carries withdrawal-→-NO risk).
Then the book: the market had already crashed on this exact news — committee leg 71¢ (Jul 28) → 51 → 42 → 19/20¢ now on 67,615 contracts today; confirmation leg 60¢ → 12/13¢ on 18,933. Blending toward books this liquid and this fresh: final 17% and 11%. NO costs 81–82¢ and 88¢. Edge after blend: ≤2¢ and ≤1¢.
Reject. The thesis is 100% public information the market repriced within the last 48 hours (Stage-3 48h-move check), the committee book is specialist-dense (vol24h 61k ≫ 5k threshold, demanding a stronger, more specific edge than recess-calendar math), and the AGCONF leg would additionally sit in the half-size 85–89¢ band as a cluster runner-up. Both logged with sides and probabilities; shadow-tracking will say if this discipline was wrong.
Positions & capital
| Line | Cost | % of capital |
|---|---|---|
| New picks (0) | $0 | 0% |
| Cash (position, not residue) | $2,500 | 100% |
| Reserve requirement (≥10%) | $250 | satisfied trivially |
Reject log (17)
| Ticker | Archetype | Side/Px¢ | Prob% | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26SEP01 | multi-news-other | NO / 81 | 17 | 48h price-move (YES 71→19 on this exact thesis); ≤2¢ residual edge on specialist-dense book (vol24h 61,312; OI 20,708; NO depth ≤82¢ ≈ 707) |
KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | NO / 88 | 11 | cluster runner-up + 85–89¢ thin-favorite band + same 48h repricing (YES 52→12); vol24h 18,828, OI 20,384 |
KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-ATOMIC | multi-news-other | — / 8 | — | band-dead both sides (YES 7–8¢ tail; NO 92–93¢ deep favorite); closes Aug 1 |
KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-OKLO | multi-news-other | — / 8 | — | band-dead both sides; closes Aug 1 |
KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | departure/ouster | — / 40 | — | liquidity floor: vol24h 206 < 500 (interesting 37/40 price, but the zero-volume cohort is the phantom-edge graveyard) |
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | — / 17 | — | liquidity floor: vol24h 376; OI 751; spread at 5¢ limit |
KXLABORSECCONF-26-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | — / 22 | — | liquidity floor: live vol24h 0; same recess logic as Blanche cluster but the book is dead |
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-AUG01 | departure/ouster | — / 4 | — | near-settled: YES ask 4¢; closes tonight |
KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01 | departure/ouster | — / 5 | — | near-settled: YES ask 5¢; NO deep-favorite band |
KXMAMDANIEO-26AUG01-T0 | confirmation/enact | — / 3 | — | near-settled: YES ask 3¢ despite vol24h 2.9k; NO 97¢ deep favorite |
KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01 | legal-action | — / 1 | — | near-settled: YES ask 1¢ |
KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | — / 2 | — | near-settled: YES ask 2¢ |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | scheduled-process | — / 4 | — | near-settled: YES ask 4¢; NO 96–97¢ deep favorite despite 732k OI |
KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 | corporate-event | — / 2 | — | near-settled: YES ask 2¢ |
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26JUL-17 | legal-action | — / 96 | — | YES bid 96¢ ≥ 95¢; deep-favorite band |
KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | multi-news-other | — / 6 | — | already an active pick |
KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26AUG01 | multi-news-other | — / 1 | — | already an active pick (YES; headed to NO settlement tonight after the Jul 29 postponement) |
Cluster table
| Cluster | Legs surviving Stage 2 | Deployed leg | Runner-ups logged |
|---|---|---|---|
| blanche-ag-confirmation | 2 | none (both rejected at Stage 3) | KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 (also 48h/band reject in its own right) |
| criticality-aug | 0 (band-dead at screen) | none | — |
Conviction exposure & risk profile
No conviction deployed: HIGH $0 / MEDIUM $0 / cash $2,500. Portfolio risk this cycle is entirely legacy-pick risk (see $EXISTING_PICKS); notably the live KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26AUG01 YES settles tonight and is effectively lost (0/1¢) on the same markup postponement documented above — the SEP01 rung diligence in this report is the post-mortem context for that outcome.
Execution notes
Nothing to execute. Watch item for the next run: if DOJ delivers written assurances and Judiciary notices a markup for the Aug 3–7 window, the SEP01 Blanche pair will reprice violently upward — that is a news-reaction trade, not a mispricing, and it remains out of scope for this strategy. The Senate returns Sep 14; October-rung confirmation markets (outside this horizon) are where the process thesis becomes tradeable again if the nomination survives the recess without withdrawal.
Sources: CNBC (Jul 29, Jul 30), NBC News, CNN, Roll Call (Jul 29), NPR (Jul 30), The Hill, CBS News, Forbes (Jul 30) on the markup postponement and withdrawal float; Roll Call / Bloomberg Government on the 2026 Senate calendar (recess Aug 8 – Sep 13, return Sep 14). Data: Kalshi public API (fp/dollar fields), kalmari.app read-only mirror, resolution_precedents store (KXAGCONF ×3, KXRECNCH ×6, KXBILLS ×1 rows consulted).