# Sentinel — Position Review (PM) · 2026-08-14

Date: 2026-08-14
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-14-kalshi-sentinel-review-pm

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# Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-08-14 · 1 pick triggered · 1 exit / 0 hold / 0 skip

Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Sep 1, 2026?
KXFISAEXTEND-26JUL-26SEP01 · signal 617

NO
capital_free
thesis: intact
decision: EXIT @ 99¢

Entry92¢
Now (exec)99¢ peak 99.5¢
Live quotesyes 0 / 1¢ NO bid 99¢ × 1,500
Our prob (NO)99%
ClosesSep 1 18 days

**Thesis re-check:** Section 702 lapsed June 12 after the House rejected the
    last extension 198–218, and nothing has become law since. The
    [Brennan Center's 702 resource page](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page)
    (updated Jul 30) shows only failed or stalled proposals through late July; the feared
    pre-recess deal never materialized, and both chambers are now in August recess until after
    Labor Day. A stale-looking
    [Hill headline](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5856102-warrantless-spy-powers-fisa-702/)
    about House passage checks out as the April 29 bill that later died in the Senate. There is no
    realistic vehicle that becomes law before the Sep 1 cutoff — NO is ~99% to win.

**Why exit anyway:** this is a capital-efficiency call, not a thesis call. NO
    bids 99¢ with 1,500 contracts at top of book — a clean fill — and the market runs 18 more
    days, well outside the ~7-day window where holding for the last penny makes sense. 1¢ of
    remaining upside doesn't justify 18 days of locked capital plus the residual
    unanimous-consent/pro-forma tail. Exit at 99¢ banks +7¢ on the 92¢ entry (+7.6%).

lineage: [2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel](https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-07-20-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel) · placed 2026-07-20 · model prob 95% · conviction high

Quotes fetched live from the Kalshi trade API at review time. Decisions in decisions.json.