# Podcast Predictions Retrospective — 2026-05-28

Date: 2026-05-28
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-05-28-podcast-predictions-retrospective

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# Podcast Predictions Retrospective

Did the speakers get it right? Did the market move with them?
Scoring 33 predictions from one run on 2026-05-13. 15 settled · 18 still open · prices fetched live 2026-05-28 02:12 UTC
How to read this: each row is a prediction made on a podcast. The OUTCOME column tells you if the matched Kalshi market settled in the speaker's favor; the rightmost favor column shows how far the market has moved in the speaker's direction since the episode dropped. Green = speaker was right (or trade went their way). Red = wrong (or trade ran away).

33Predictions scored
10Correct (settled)
5Wrong (settled)
18Still open
67%Hit rate on settled
-4.9¢Avg drift (in speaker favor, now)

## 2. Drift after publish — did the market move with the speaker?

For each prediction we snapshot the YES mid-price (yes_bid + yes_ask) / 2 nearest the podcast publish date, then again at +1d, +3d, and now. We then express the move _in the speaker's favor_ (mirrors the sign for NO picks). Positive ¢ = market moved toward the speaker's call. Coverage limited by snapshot density.

-2.6¢Avg +1d drift (in favor)
+1.6¢Avg +3d drift (in favor)
-4.9¢Avg drift now (in favor)
9 / 31Moved with speaker at +1d
13 / 31Moved with speaker now

## 3. Did the podcast cause the move?

Section 2 told us markets _roughly_ moved in speakers' favor on aggregate. But that's not causation — maybe these markets were already drifting toward the speakers' calls _before_ the podcasts dropped. Here we compare the 2-day window _before_ publish (pre-event trend) against the 2-day window _spanning_ publish (post-event move). The difference is what the podcast added _above_ the prior trend.

+1.0¢Pre-publish drift (in favor)
+0.7¢Post-publish drift (in favor)
-0.3¢Excess move attributable to publish
2 / 20Picks with >5¢ excess move in favor
1.8xMedian volume ratio (post/pre)
13 / 20Markets with >1.5x volume spike

Verdict: On average the price moved -0.3¢ in the speaker's favor in the 24 hours around publish, above the prior 2-day trend (median +0.0¢). That is essentially zero. Only 2 of 20 measurable picks saw an excess move greater than 5¢ in the speaker's favor — within the range of pure chance.

But there is a volume signal: Trading volume does spike around publish: median post/pre ratio is 1.8x (mean 7.1x). 13 of 20 markets saw >1.5x volume; 10 of 20 saw >2x. So people trade more when these podcasts drop — they just don't trade in a direction that consistently moves the price.

### Top 15 by absolute excess move (pre-trend-adjusted)

| Speaker | Market | Pre-publish drift (in favor) | Post-publish drift (in favor) | Excess move (post − pre) | Volume ratio (post 24h / pre 24h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe HouseThe Bill Simmons Podcast | `KXNBASERIESSPREAD-26CLEDETR2-DET2`pick YES | -22¢ | +3¢ | **+25¢** | 1.4x |
| Big CatPardon My Take | `KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC40`pick YES | +20¢ | +3¢ | **-17¢** | 0.8x |
| Rory StewartThe Rest Is Politics | `KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABUR`pick YES | +6¢ | -4¢ | **-10¢** | 0.7x |
| Rory StewartThe Rest Is Politics | `KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KSTAUK`pick YES | +17¢ | +8¢ | **-9¢** | 3.2x |
| Big CatPardon My Take | `KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET`pick YES | -10¢ | -2¢ | **+8¢** | 0.3x |
| HankPardon My Take | `KXLBJRETIRE-26`pick YES | +5¢ | +1¢ | **-4¢** | 2.0x |
| Cam'ronFirst Take | `KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET`pick YES | -10¢ | -13¢ | **-3¢** | 2.6x |
| Jay WilliamsFirst Take | `KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET`pick NO | +10¢ | +13¢ | **+3¢** | 2.6x |
| Stephen A. SmithFirst Take | `KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET`pick YES | -10¢ | -13¢ | **-3¢** | 2.6x |
| Paul BissonnettePardon My Take | `KXNHLSERIES-26MTLBUFR2-MTL`pick YES | +16¢ | +20¢ | **+3¢** | 1.5x |
| Bill SimmonsThe Bill Simmons Podcast | `KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT-BOS`pick YES | -1¢ | -4¢ | **-2¢** | 2.5x |
| Kara SwisherPivot | `KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01`pick NO | -1¢ | +1¢ | **+2¢** | 13.0x |
| Steph McGovernThe Rest Is Money | `KXNEXTUKPM-30-WS`pick YES | +2¢ | +3¢ | **+2¢** | 4.5x |
| Chris VernonThe Bill Simmons Podcast | `KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-DETNYK`pick YES | -3¢ | -2¢ | **+1¢** | 0.6x |
| Tommy VietorPod Save America | `KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DR`pick YES | +1¢ | 0¢ | **-1¢** | 10.2x |

Coverage: **20 of 33** picks had snapshot data both 2 days before and 2 days after publish. The rest had gaps in the local mirror around that date — usually because the market wasn't being tracked yet or the bot had downtime.

## 4. Every prediction, with outcome and drift

Show:
All
Correct
Wrong
Open

| Outcome | Speaker | Prediction | Market & pick | Price track | In favor (now) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORRECT | Scott Galloway The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 2026-05-12 | China will NOT announce acceptance of imported Nvidia H200 chips during the Trump-Xi summit. tech · medium · near | [PICK · NO U.S.-China AI safety channel KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-AISA · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchinaannounce/what-will-trump-announce-at-his-china-trip/kxchinaannounce-26may) | at pub70¢ +1d-24¢ +3d-46¢ nowsettled NO | +67¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Scott Galloway The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 2026-05-12 | Donald Trump will publicly announce Chinese commitments to purchase Boeing aircraft during his China trip. foreign policy · medium · near | [PICK · YES Boeing aircraft purchases KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-BOEING · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchinaannounce/what-will-trump-announce-at-his-china-trip/kxchinaannounce-26may) | at pub86¢ +1d-66¢ +3d+8¢ nowsettled YES | -60¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Tamara Keith (NPR senior political correspondent) Up First 2026-05-12 | NPR's Tamara Keith notes that observers expect China may announce additional Boeing aircraft purchases during Trump's Beijing visit this week, though she caveats that announced agreements on Trump foreign trips often turn out to be less than meets the eye. business · speculative · near | [PICK · YES Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on securing Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft during his China trip? KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-BOEING · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchinaannounce/what-will-trump-announce-at-his-china-trip/kxchinaannounce-26may) | at pub86¢ +1d-66¢ +3d+8¢ nowsettled YES | -60¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Scott Galloway The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 2026-05-12 | Donald Trump will publicly announce Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. soybeans/agricultural products during his China trip. foreign policy · medium · near | [PICK · YES U.S. soybean purchases KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-SOYA · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchinaannounce/what-will-trump-announce-at-his-china-trip/kxchinaannounce-26may) | at pub70¢ +1d+5¢ +3d+22¢ nowsettled YES | -54¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Tamara Keith (NPR senior political correspondent) Up First 2026-05-12 | NPR's Tamara Keith reports that observers expect China to announce additional purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm products during Trump's state visit to Beijing this week. foreign policy · medium · near | [PICK · YES Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on securing Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans during his China trip? KXCHINAANNOUNCE-26MAY-MAY17-SOYA · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchinaannounce/what-will-trump-announce-at-his-china-trip/kxchinaannounce-26may) | at pub70¢ +1d+5¢ +3d+22¢ nowsettled YES | -54¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Rory Stewart The Rest Is Politics 2026-05-12 | Keir Starmer will survive the cabinet pressure today and remain Prime Minister through the immediate confidence crisis — he'll 'Joe Biden it' rather than step down now. politics · high · near | [PICK · NO Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026? KXLEAVESTARMER-26MAY15 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxleavestarmer/keir-starmer-out/kxleavestarmer) | at pub28¢ +1d-22¢ +3d-27¢ nowsettled NO | +27¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Paul Bissonnette Pardon My Take 2026-05-11 | If the Montreal Canadiens take a 3-1 series lead, they will successfully close out the series against the Buffalo Sabres. sports · speculative · near | [PICK · YES Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres 2026 2nd Round series winner? KXNHLSERIES-26MTLBUFR2-MTL · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhlseries/nhl-series-winner/kxnhlseries-26mtlbufr2) | at pub68¢ +1d+1¢ +3d-18¢ nowsettled YES | +12¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Jay Williams First Take 2026-05-12 | The Cleveland Cavaliers will win their playoff series against the Detroit Pistons. sports · medium · near | [PICK · NO Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner? KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseries/professional-basketball-series/kxnbaseries-26cledetr2) | at pub70¢ +1d-12¢ +3d-44¢ nowsettled NO | +5¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Big Cat Pardon My Take 2026-05-11 | The Oklahoma City Thunder will sweep the Los Angeles Lakers in four games. sports · high · near | [PICK · YES Will Oklahoma City win 4-0 in the Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs? KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC40 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseriesscore/nba-series-exact-score/kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2) | at pub80¢ +1d+4¢ +3d— nowsettled YES | +2¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| CORRECT | Raja Bell  Real Ones The Ringer NBA Show | 2026-05-12|The New York Knicks will win their next playoff series, benefiting from their extended rest period. sports · medium · near | [PICK · YES Will New York cover -1.5 games in the Atlanta vs New York 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs? KXNBASERIESSPREAD-26ATLNYKR1-NYK2 · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseriesspread/nba-series-game-spread/kxnbaseriesspread-26atlnykr1) | at pub— +1d— +3d— nowsettled YES | —¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| WRONG | Joe House The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | The Detroit Pistons will defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in their playoff series. sports · high · near | [PICK · YES Will Detroit cover -1.5 games in the Cleveland vs Detroit 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs? KXNBASERIESSPREAD-26CLEDETR2-DET2 · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseriesspread/nba-series-game-spread/kxnbaseriesspread-26cledetr2) | at pub46¢ +1d-1¢ +3d-12¢ nowsettled NO | -35¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| WRONG | Chris Vernon The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | The New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. sports · speculative · near | [PICK · YES Will Detroit vs New York be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals? KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-DETNYK · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxteamsinnbaef/teams-in-nba-eastern-conference-finals/kxteamsinnbaef-26) | at pub72¢ +1d-2¢ +3d-14¢ nowsettled NO | -8¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| WRONG | Big Cat Pardon My Take 2026-05-11 | The Detroit Pistons will win their playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. sports · medium · near | [PICK · YES Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner? KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseries/professional-basketball-series/kxnbaseries-26cledetr2) | at pub70¢ +1d0¢ +3d-12¢ nowsettled NO | -5¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| WRONG | Cam'ron First Take 2026-05-12 | The Detroit Pistons will defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers to win their current playoff series. sports · medium · near | [PICK · YES Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner? KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseries/professional-basketball-series/kxnbaseries-26cledetr2) | at pub70¢ +1d-12¢ +3d-44¢ nowsettled NO | -5¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| WRONG | Stephen A. Smith First Take 2026-05-12 | The Detroit Pistons will win their playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. sports · medium · near | [PICK · YES Cleveland vs Detroit 2026 2nd Round series winner? KXNBASERIES-26CLEDETR2-DET · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbaseries/professional-basketball-series/kxnbaseries-26cledetr2) | at pub70¢ +1d-12¢ +3d-44¢ nowsettled NO | -5¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Rory Stewart The Rest Is Politics 2026-05-12 | If Starmer is replaced, an Andy Burnham-style 'change' candidate from outside the cabinet is the most credible internal Labour pick — analogous to Boris Johnson succeeding Theresa May. politics · speculative · medium | [PICK · YES Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABUR · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextukpm/next-uk-pm/kxnextukpm-30) | at pub32¢ +1d0¢ +3d+20¢ now62¢ live | +30¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Steph McGovern The Rest Is Money 2026-05-12 | If Starmer falls, Wes Streeting is the leadership contender best positioned to satisfy bond markets and emerge as the next UK PM, given his growth-focused agenda versus Rayner's tax-hike pitch or Burnham's public-ownership instincts. politics · speculative · medium | [PICK · YES Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom? KXNEXTUKPM-30-WS · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextukpm/next-uk-pm/kxnextukpm-30) | at pub20¢ +1d-6¢ +3d-10¢ now4¢ live | -16¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Tate Frazier The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | The Sacramento Kings will trade up to the number five pick to draft Darius Acuff. sports · medium · near | [PICK · YES Will Darius Acuff be drafted by Sacramento? KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26DACU-SAC · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbadraftteam/pro-basketball-team-to-draft/kxnbadraftteam-26dacu) | at pub17¢ +1d+16¢ +3d+14¢ now31¢ live | +14¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Hank Pardon My Take 2026-05-11 | LeBron James will retire or leave the Lakers, making this his final game for the franchise. sports · speculative · medium | [PICK · YES Will LeBron James announce his retirement in 2026? KXLBJRETIRE-26 · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlbjretire/lbj-retire/kxlbjretire-26) | at pub26¢ +1d0¢ +3d-7¢ now14¢ live | -12¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Kara Swisher Pivot 2026-05-12 | SpaceX will hold an initial public offering in June. markets · high · near | [PICK · NO When will SpaceX IPO? KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipospacex/when-will-spacex-ipo/kxipospacex) | at pub12¢ +1d-3¢ +3d0¢ now2¢ live | +11¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Rory Stewart The Rest Is Politics 2026-05-12 | It is a certainty Keir Starmer cannot win the next general election; the only question is when, not if, Labour replaces him. politics · medium · medium | [PICK · YES Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027? KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KSTAUK · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxleadersout/world-leaders-out-this-year/kxleadersout-27jan01) | at pub86¢ +1d-18¢ +3d-10¢ now76¢ live | -10¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Bill Simmons The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | The Boston Celtics are the favorites to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo in a trade. sports · speculative · medium | [PICK · YES What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team? KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT-BOS · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextteamnba/next-nba-team/kxnextteamnba-26gant) | at pub20¢ +1d0¢ +3d-4¢ now10¢ live | -10¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Alice Miranda Ollstein Today, Explained 2026-05-12 | The Supreme Court is likely to duck the merits of Louisiana's challenge to FDA telehealth/mail-order mifepristone rules by ruling Louisiana lacks standing, so no nationwide restrictions on mail-order mifepristone will take effect in the immediate term. politics · speculative · near | [PICK · NO Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that nationwide restrictions on mail-order mifepristone take effect before Jun 1, 2026? KXMIFEPRISTONEMAIL-26-JUN01 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmifepristonemail/will-mail-order-mifepristone-access-be-restricted-nationwide/kxmifepristonemail-26) | at pub10¢ +1d+2¢ +3d-8¢ now2¢ live | +8¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Chris Vernon The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | The Memphis Grizzlies will select Cam Boozer with the third overall pick in the NBA Draft. sports · medium · near | [PICK · YES Will Cameron Boozer be drafted by Memphis? KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26CBOO-MEM · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbadraftteam/pro-basketball-team-to-draft/kxnbadraftteam-26cboo) | at pub42¢ +1d+12¢ +3d+3¢ now50¢ live | +7¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Alastair Campbell The Rest Is Politics 2026-05-12 | On the current trajectory, Nigel Farage and Reform UK are positioned to win the next UK general election, with Labour collapsing and the Tories also failing. politics · speculative · long | [PICK · NO Will Labour win the next U.K. election? KXUKPARTY-29-L · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxukparty/uk-elections/kxukparty-29) | at pub24¢ +1d0¢ +3d0¢ now28¢ live | -4¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Chris Vernon The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | AJ Dybantsa will be drafted first overall, and Darryn Peterson will be drafted second overall by the Utah Jazz. sports · high · near | [PICK · YES Will Darryn Peterson be drafted by Utah? KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26DPET-UTA · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbadraftteam/pro-basketball-team-to-draft/kxnbadraftteam-26dpet) | at pub52¢ +1d+0¢ +3d+4¢ now56¢ live | +4¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Joe House The Bill Simmons Podcast 2026-05-11 | The Washington Wizards will select AJ Dybantsa with the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft. sports · high · near | [PICK · YES Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted by Washington? KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26ADYB-WSH · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbadraftteam/pro-basketball-team-to-draft/kxnbadraftteam-26adyb) | at pub70¢ +1d+0¢ +3d-4¢ now72¢ live | +2¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Tommy Vietor Pod Save America 2026-05-12 | Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms despite Republican redistricting gains. elections · medium · long | [PICK · YES D-House, R-Senate KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DR · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbalancepowercombo/congress-balance-of-power-combo/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb) | at pub30¢ +1d+1¢ +3d+1¢ now32¢ live | +2¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Chao Deng (WSJ) The Journal. 2026-05-12 | The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its June 2026 meeting following the high inflation report. economy · high · near | [PICK · YES Fed maintains rate KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun) | at pub96¢ +1d0¢ +3d0¢ now96¢ live | -1¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Ben Meiselas The MeidasTouch Podcast 2026-05-12 | The Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates due to the economic fallout from the Iran conflict. economy · high · medium | [PICK · YES Fed maintains rate KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun) | at pub96¢ +1d0¢ +3d0¢ now96¢ live | -1¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Scott Horsley (NPR business correspondent) Up First 2026-05-12 | NPR's Scott Horsley predicts the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, since the April jobs report showed no labor-market deterioration and the Fed has limited ability to address an energy supply shock. economy · medium · near | [PICK · YES Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting? KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun) | at pub96¢ +1d0¢ +3d0¢ now96¢ live | -1¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | James Comey The Bulwark Podcast 2026-05-12 | The Trump DOJ's investigations into figures like Jerome Powell are intimidation theater; they will not actually charge or convict the Federal Reserve chair. politics · medium · medium | [PICK · NO Will Jerome Powell be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JPOW · DIRECT](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfederalcharge/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime/kxfederalcharge-27jan01) | at pub8¢ +1d0¢ +3d0¢ now8¢ live | -1¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |
| OPEN | Philip Wegman Today, Explained 2026-05-12 | Trump will not back a federal abortion ban; his administration is sticking with a states-only framework despite anti-abortion lobbying from groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. politics · medium · long | [PICK · NO Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that nationwide restrictions on mail-order mifepristone take effect before Jan 1, 2027? KXMIFEPRISTONEMAIL-26-27JAN · PROXY](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmifepristonemail/will-mail-order-mifepristone-access-be-restricted-nationwide/kxmifepristonemail-26) | at pub— +1d— +3d— now12¢ live | —¢ vs publish, in speaker's favor |

## 5. Speaker leaderboard

| Speaker | Picks | Correct | Wrong | Open | Hit rate (settled) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Galloway | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Tamara Keith (NPR senior political correspondent) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jay Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Rory Stewart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 100% |
| Paul Bissonnette | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Raja Bell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Big Cat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Bill Simmons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Tate Frazier | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Kara Swisher | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Chao Deng (WSJ) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Ben Meiselas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Scott Horsley (NPR business correspondent) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Alice Miranda Ollstein | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| James Comey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Steph McGovern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Alastair Campbell | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Hank | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Tommy Vietor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Philip Wegman | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Joe House | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| Chris Vernon | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0% |
| Cam'ron | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |

## Method

**Data sources:** Predictions pulled from the `predictions` table in the production Neon Postgres on 2026-05-28 02:12 UTC. Market resolution status pulled live from the Kalshi public API (`api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/<ticker>`) at the same time. Pre/post-publish prices pulled from the local Kalshi mirror (`bot.db`, table `market_snapshots`, 5-min cadence) — coverage gaps for some +7d snapshots reflect the mirror's gaps, not the speaker's prediction.

**"In speaker's favor"** is the change in the YES mid-price (bid+ask)/2 from the publish-date snapshot to the +1d / +3d / now snapshots, sign-flipped when the speaker picked NO. Positive = the market moved with them.

**"Settled" outcomes** read the `result` field from Kalshi's `/markets` endpoint when `status` is `finalized` or `settled`. A handful of NBA series markets here settled "no" because the team the speakers picked lost or didn't advance.

**Caveats:** all 33 predictions come from a single workflow run on 2026-05-13, so this is one experiment, not a representative sample of speaker skill over time. Predictions are unique per speaker × podcast × prediction-text — duplicate matched markets (the same Kalshi market backing multiple speaker quotes) are kept as separate rows to preserve who said what. Markets that resolved within 24h of publish have noisier "drift" readings because the move and the outcome happen simultaneously.