Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

Thesis confirmed in full. The Senate left for its August recess without voting on the CLARITY Act (Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed, but no floor vote), and the vote is now scheduled for September 15 — two weeks past this market's Sep 1 deadline. With both chambers out until Aug 31/September, a signed law before Sep 1 is physically impossible. But the market already pays 99¢ for NO and doesn't close for 12 days (>7-day threshold): exit, capture 16 of the 16.5¢ gain, free the capital. Liquidity is ample — ~$3.6k notional bid at 99¢, ~$4.4k at 98¢.

Same market and side as signal 600; the calendar-math thesis played out exactly as written — no Democratic flip materialized, the Senate recessed without a vote, and passage is now targeted for Sept 15 at the earliest. NO is ~99.5% but the bid is 99¢ today with 12 days of lockup left. Per the capital_free rule: take the 16¢ and redeploy rather than warehouse tail risk (resolver surprises, exchange risk) for the final cent.