13 live picks; 1 tripped a trigger since last review. Decision below re-checked against live Kalshi quotes and primary reporting as of this morning.
Thesis re-check: unchanged and stronger. Section 702 lapsed on June 12 after the House rejected the last-ditch extension 198–218; the deadlock over the Pulte acting-DNI standoff persists, the Brennan Center 2026 tracker shows no bill moving, and Congress is in August recess until after this market's close. Nothing can become law before Sep 1.
Why exit anyway: NO is bid 99¢ with 1,500 contracts of depth, and the market only closes early if YES occurs — so holding locks capital for 14 more days to collect at most 1¢, while keeping the (tiny) recall-and-rush tail. That fails the capital-free test (≥95¢ with >7 days to close). Take 99¢ on the 92¢ entry and redeploy.
Checked: Kalshi live book (08:00 UTC), Axios, Nextgov/FCW, Brennan Center.