# Sentinel — Position Review (PM) · 2026-08-01

Date: 2026-08-01
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-01-kalshi-sentinel-review-pm

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# Sentinel — Position Review (PM)

2026-08-01 · 2 triggered picks reviewed · 2 exits, 0 holds

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · NO · signal #718 · 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit

EXIT

Entry 92¢
Now 95¢ (bid, ~14.4k deep)
Peak 95.5¢
Trigger capital_free
Thesis intact
Our prob 97% vs market ~95–96%
Closes Sep 1 (31d)

      The thesis is not just intact — it's stronger. Queried the resolution source directly:
      IMF PortWatch shows Hormuz transits at 9–16/day through Jul 23
      (7-day average ≈ 11 vs the >60 threshold). US–Iran fighting
      resumed in July,
      and Windward /
      Lloyd's List Intelligence
      report a near-standstill — ~5 transits in the 24h to Jul 31 against a ~140/day pre-crisis baseline, with the IRGC turning vessels around.
      This is a pure capital-free exit, not a thesis call: NO fetches 95¢ today with 31 days to close. The last ≤5¢ isn't worth a month
      of locked capital against the tail the original audit itself priced — a sudden deal + queue-flush, or a single PortWatch
      data-artifact print >60, either of which resolves YES immediately (market can close early).
    
Would we open NO at 95¢ today for a max +5¢ over 31 days in a live war with a data-artifact tail? No → exit.

Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · NO · signal #734 · 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel

EXIT

Entry 92¢
Now 95¢ (bid, ~14.4k deep)
Peak 95.5¢
Trigger capital_free
Thesis intact
Our prob 97% vs market ~95–96%
Closes Sep 1 (31d)

      Duplicate position in the same market from the sentinel audit run; same evidence, same verdict.
      PortWatch 7dMA ≈ 11/day as of Jul 23, both blockades effectively in force,
      the June reopening deal has collapsed with
      traffic at a standstill,
      and the original Lloyd's Market Association claim — normalization takes months after any deal — still holds.
      Exit at 95¢ on the capital-free rule: at most 5¢ left over 31 days, and any single PortWatch print >60 before Sep 1
      (deal spike or the data-revision artifact this audit flagged as its own priced risk) wipes the position. Book depth at 95¢
      (~14.4k contracts) supports a full exit alongside #718.
    
Same market as #718 — exit both legs together; combined size still well inside top-of-book depth.

    Live quotes fetched 2026-08-01 from Kalshi (yes_bid 4¢ / yes_ask 5¢ → NO exit 95¢). Primary source: IMF PortWatch daily
    chokepoint feed, latest print 2026-07-23. Sentinel recommends risk-reducing moves only.