targets.json allowlist (117 series, generated 2026-08-04 15:06 UTC) · Category focus: AI (advisory — no allowlisted AI-category series had qualifying open markets in horizon; slate worked Tier-1-first as designed)1 pick, 11 logged rejects, $81 deployed (3.2%), $2,419 cash (96.8%). Stage 0 produced only 6 mechanically-clean markets across two theses — the Blanche AG-confirmation complex and the brand-new Pirro-out-as-DC-US-Attorney ladder. The Blanche market repriced +56 points in 48 hours and now sits where the process math puts it; the Pirro ladder still carries residual departure premium after she survived yesterday's White House meeting, and its Sep 1 leg offers a precedent-backed NO in the core band. An efficient week; cash is the position.
The situation. Trump is publicly furious at Pirro over her office's Aug 1 court filing concluding the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool damage was a flawed renovation, not vandalism — he said she "choked," sources told CNN removal is "highly likely," and he "fumed all weekend" (CNN, WTOP, Forbes, Aug 3). But at the Aug 3 White House meeting she was not fired and did not resign, and she blamed career officials for the filing (CNN, Aug 3–4). No successor has been floated. She is Senate-confirmed (Aug 2025, after Ed Martin's nomination collapsed), so removing her reopens a confirmation problem. The market listed Aug 1 near 97¢, crashed to 38–40¢ on the meeting-survival news, and sits at 38/39 — still pricing a ~2-in-5 departure inside four weeks.
Why NO at 62–64¢. The precedent store shows exactly this shape resolving NO repeatedly:
Precedent: KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUN01 resolved NO — Kalshi priced the rung at 67% off one week of anonymous "matter of time" sourcing; lesson: "sell the spike into the news cycle rather than buying it." KXKASHOUT-26APR-JUL01 (priced 77%) also resolved NO.
Precedent: KXLUTNICKOUT-26JUL01 resolved NO — "even cross-party resignation calls plus documentary scandal do not move this archetype… absent a named successor, price any single month near the base rate."
This case is stronger than those panics in one respect — the President himself, not anonymous sources, is
attacking her — which is why the number is 33% and not the sub-25% raw base rate. The live
rules_secondary was read this run: resolution is announcement-based, effective date irrelevant,
and any cessation counts (removal, resignation, reassignment out of the role). That widens YES paths — a
face-saving transfer, the exact treatment Ed Martin got, would resolve YES — and is priced into the blend.
Resolver profile & risk pricing. Resolver: Kalshi multi-news desk on a public-announcement
standard; boundaries are unusually explicit in rules_secondary (temporary suspensions/recusals don't
count; death → last-fair-price). Forecasting the resolver's verdict, not the vibes: nothing short of an actual
announced departure pays YES. Deductions: −3 pts for "officially communicated" edge cases on a volatile principal
(e.g. an ambiguous Truth Social post the desk must interpret). Total deductions 3 pts < 15 — passes.
The live way to be wrong. One Truth Social post fires her and NO loses 63¢/contract instantly; the early-close clause settles it same-day. That risk is why this is MEDIUM, depth-capped, and a single leg — the Aug 5/6/7 rungs of the same thesis are logged as cluster runner-ups, not stacked.
| Market | Side | Limit | Contracts | Max cost | Max win | Conviction | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | NO | 64¢ | 129 | $81 | $48 | MEDIUM | 3.2% |
| Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — | 96.8% |
Reserve requirement (≥10% of $2,500) satisfied trivially. Depth cap binds before the 7% MEDIUM cost cap ($175).
| Market | Side | Avg cost | Model win prob | EV/contract | EV % cost | Portfolio EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | NO | 62.8¢ | 67% | +4.2¢ | +6.7% | +$5.4 |
| Cluster | Deployed leg | Runner-ups logged as rejects |
|---|---|---|
| pirro-out-dc | SEP01 NO @ 62–64¢ (core band) | AUG07 NO (88–89¢ thin favorite), AUG06 NO (~90¢), AUG05 NO (94–95¢ deep) |
| blanche-ag-confirm | none — no edge | KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01, KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26SEP01 |
| Tier | Positions | Cost | % of capital | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 0% | 15%/pick |
| MEDIUM | 1 | $81 | 3.2% | 7%/pick |
| Cash | — | $2,419 | 96.8% | — |
| Market | Archetype | Price | Side/Prob | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 Blanche confirmed AG before Sep 1 | confirmation/enact | 74/76 | YES · 72% | No edge at an efficient price. Repriced +56 pts in 48h (Cornyn/Tillis deal Sunday; 12-10 committee vote this morning). Punchbowl floor plan — cloture filed Wed, cloture vote Fri, final Sat Aug 8 before a 5-week recess — puts my process math (~0.90 cloture × 0.85 schedule-holds × 0.96 final ≈ 72%) inside the book. Precedent (KXAGCONF Jun/Jul rungs, all NO): clock runs from transmittal; this rung is the first with enough runway. NO side <40¢ band. |
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG07 | multi-news-other | 11/12 | NO · 91% | Cluster runner-up to SEP01 NO; entry 88–89¢ is the thin-favorite band against a publicly furious President 3 days out — the shape of the record's worst loss (the 94¢ "lock"). |
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG06 | multi-news-other | 10/13 | NO | Cluster runner-up; NO ~87–90¢ straddles the deep-favorite reject line. |
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG05 | multi-news-other | 5/6 | NO | Deep-favorite band (NO 94–95¢); closes in <13h. |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 | scheduled-process | 92/95 | YES | Deep-favorite band (≥90¢ reject) on a month-out macro meeting. |
| KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | departure/ouster | 29/32 | NO | Liquidity floor: vol24h 214 < 500. Zero-volume cohort had negative realized edge; no exceptions. |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 ≥2 judges confirmed in Aug | confirmation/enact | 29/30 | NO | Liquidity floor: vol24h 5 < 500, despite an attractive recess-based NO thesis (Senate gone Aug 7–Sep 7). Phantom edge in a dead book — the documented v1–v3 failure mode. |
| KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27-26SEP01 | multi-news-other | 0/100 | — | Broken book; committee voted 12-10 this morning, resolution imminent. |
| KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-BMAT | confirmation/enact | 91/99 | — | Mechanical: spread 8¢, vol24h 134; deep-favorite besides. |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | scheduled-process | 2/3 | — | Mechanical: YES ask ≤5¢ dead tail (tails 0-for-8 lifetime). |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | departure/ouster | — | — | Already an active pick. |
A further ~28 in-horizon allowlist markets were cut mechanically at Stage 0 (YES ask ≤5¢ dead tails, vol24h < 500, or spread > 5¢) without Stage-2 research: KXALITOOUT, KXKASHOUT, KXIPO* (4), KXIMPEACH, KXSENATECONFIRM (5 more), KXLEAVE* (5), KXFARMBILL, KXSANCTIONRUSSIA, KXTARIFFBILL, KXRECNCH, KXMARTINDNCOUT, KXLEAVEMILLS, KXGALLEGOOUT, KXDEMSCHUMER, KXFARAGEOUTREFORM, KXBURNHAMOUT, KXLUTNICKOUT, KXNYTCHARGE, KXMCDONALDCONF, KXLAKECONF, KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER, KXCBDECISIONCANADA (2). None showed a book worth a rules read.
None this run — no settled target-series market required reconstruction (the KXAGCONF and KXKASHOUT
histories consulted are already in the store; KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY and the Pirro Aug rungs are not yet settled).
precedents.json ships empty.
Pipeline: Stage 0 allowlist scan (117 series → 95 in-horizon markets → 6 mechanical survivors) →
Stage 1 precedent retrieval (26 rows across KXAGCONF, departure/ouster, confirmation/enact) → Stage 2 probability-before-price
(pre-market numbers committed after rules + news, before book study) → Stage 2.5 resolver profiling → Stage 3 reject screens →
Stage 3.5 bands → Stage 4 one-leg-per-cluster sizing. Prices are live Kalshi *_fp / *_dollars reads, 2026-08-04 15:00–16:30 UTC.
Primary sources: CNN — Trump doesn't fire Pirro at White House meeting (Aug 3) · WTOP/CNN — Furious Trump considering removing Pirro (Aug 3) · Forbes — "she choked" (Aug 3) · NPR — Judiciary Committee to vote on Blanche (Aug 4) · AP/US News — panel advances Blanche 12-10 after GOP-holdout deal (Aug 4) · Punchbowl — Thune's pre-recess floor plan: cloture Wed→Fri, final Sat · The Hill — Blanche momentum, GOP obstacles, McConnell absence math · NPR — Blanche rescinds $1.8B fund to win Cornyn/Tillis (Aug 3) · The Hill — Ed Martin exit / Pirro takeover background (May 2025)