Kalshi Elections — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-06-08 · Category Elections · Horizon 45 days · Suggested book $1,000 · 3 picks · 1 high-conviction

Bottom line. Elections is a thin category this week. The June 9 Maine and California primaries, plus the June 2 California/LA primary "AP-call timing" markets, have already resolved or fully priced. After screening 49 active markets closing inside 45 days, exactly one is both liquid and genuinely mispriced — a NO on Graham Platner dropping out of the Maine Senate race. Two thinner satellites round out the book. I am deploying $707 of $1,000 and holding the rest as reserve; forcing more capital into stale order books would cost more in slippage than the edge is worth.

1 · How this was researched

Universe. Queried the live Kalshi mirror (read-only SQL) for every trading_markets row joined to trading_events where category = 'Elections', status = 'active', and close_time within 45 days of 2026-06-08. 49 markets.
Screen. Pulled the latest market_snapshots per ticker for price/spread/volume, then cross-checked every survivor against the live Kalshi public API (/markets + /orderbook) because the mirror's snapshots lag. Cut markets with 24h volume < 1,500, spreads > 5¢, "what will X say"/mention noise, and anything already fully priced (YES bid ≥ 95¢ or ask ≤ 5¢).
Diligence. For each survivor: read the full rules_primary + rules_secondary resolution text, pulled 14-day intraday price history, hit the live order book for depth, and grounded a probability in primary-source news (NYT/NBC/CNN/AP-affiliate reporting, the Portland Press Herald, Maine election statute, and on-record quotes from the principals).
Reject. Threw out anything where the rules could flip on a definition, where the "edge" was an unknowable tail, where I could not pin the exact polling-aggregator value a market resolves against, or where the book was too thin to enter without ≥3¢ of slippage.

Every number below is either a query result or carries a cited source. Probabilities are subjective. Each contract resolves to $1 or $0.

2 · Markets reviewed

Ticker	Question	YES bid/ask	24h vol	OI	Verdict
KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26	Platner drops out (Maine Sen) before Jul 14	14 / 15	38,116	140,723	Pick · BUY NO
KXTRUMPCOLLINS-26JUN16	Trump endorses Collins (GA Sen) before Jun 16	70 / 75	0	502	Pick · BUY YES
KXMILLSPLATNER-…-JUL01	Mills endorses Platner before Jul 1	9 / 10	0	3,618	Pick · BUY NO
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01	Díaz-Canel leaves office before Jul 1	12 / 13	938	63,978	Reject · no edge
KXELECTIRAN-26JUL01	Iran holds presidential election before Jul 1	2 / 3	1,521	28,096	Reject · priced
KXTRUMPVH-26JUN12-T39.9	Trump approval above 39.9% on Jun 12	26 / 27	238	953	Reject · unpinnable
KXGENERICBALLOT…-T6.2	Generic ballot D−R above 6.2% on Jun 12	29 / 32	192	442	Reject · unpinnable
KXFETTERMANSWITCH-…	Fetterman leaves Democratic party before Jul 1	0 / 3	0	6,401	Reject · priced
KXLAIOUT-LCHI-26JUL01	Lai Ching-te leaves office before Jul 1	1 / 5	0	1,806	Reject · priced
KXAPCALL… (11 mkts)	When AP calls CA Gov / LA Mayor primary	0 / 1	—	—	Reject · resolved
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-… (8)	How many states Trump visits in June	—	0	~300	Reject · thin/noise
KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-… (4)	June Fed rate + dissents combo	—	≤9	—	Reject · thin
KXPANAMATRAFFIC-… (7)	May Panama Canal transits (miscategorized)	—	≤66	—	Reject · off-topic
KXPRATTCONCEDE-…	Spencer Pratt concedes LA mayoral primary	2 / 99	186	1,256	Reject · noise

49 active Elections markets within horizon; table shows the screened survivors plus representative reject buckets. Prices in ¢, from the live Kalshi API at report time.

3 · Picks — detail & thesis

Ordered by conviction (how defensible the edge is — source quality, rules clarity, book depth), highest first. Note: high conviction ≠ high EV. The flagship has a modest 4¢ edge but is extremely defensible; the satellites have larger percentage edges but real execution risk.

KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26 · BUY NO @ 0.87 · High conviction

Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race before Jul 14, 2026?

Current: YES 0.14 / NO 0.86 · last 0.14

My fair value: YES ≈0.10 / NO ≈0.90

Action: BUY NO, limit 0.87 (work the 0.86 offer first)

Edge: ≈ +4¢ / +4.7% per contract

Liquidity: 24h vol 38,116 · OI 140,723

Close: 2026-07-14 (tracks the statutory withdrawal deadline)

Mispricing thesis. A primary winner who is publicly backed by the Senate Democratic leader and who has flatly refused to quit almost never withdraws inside five weeks. YES at 14¢ over-prices the scandal tail; the price already peaked and faded on exactly this news.

Evidence (cited):

Platner leads the June 9 (tomorrow) Democratic primary by a large margin and is "widely expected to win the nomination" to face Sen. Susan Collins (NPR, Jun 5; Ballotpedia).
Chuck Schumer, after the scandal broke: "I endorsed Graham Platner. We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate." No mass exodus of his endorsers (NBC News, Jun 2).
Platner himself says he has "not once" considered dropping out and "vows to stay" despite the New York Times piece quoting three ex-girlfriends and the "Totenkopf" tattoo allegation (The Hill, Jun).
The market window is deliberate: under Maine law a nominee can be replaced only if the primary winner withdraws by the second Monday in July (Jul 13); this contract closes Jul 14. So the question is precisely "does he use that exit?" (Portland Press Herald, Jun 4).

Tail risk (the single cleanest way this loses): a new disqualifying revelation lands and party leadership flips from "stay" to "go" before the July 13 deadline, and Platner personally agrees to step aside. That is the only path — losing the primary or being attacked does not count as "dropping out" under the rules, and incapacitation resolves NO. The scandal is live and developing, which is why this is a 10% event and not a 3% one.

Price history (14-day). Opened ~10¢ on Jun 1; spiked to 57¢ intraday on Jun 2 on the NYT exposé, ran to 26-30¢ on Jun 4-5 as OI built from 21k → 140k on 100k+ daily volume, then faded back to 13-16¢ by Jun 6-8 once he dug in and Schumer reaffirmed. Last 48h flat at 12-14¢ — my NO is the settled post-fade consensus, not a fresh contrarian fade. (source: market_snapshots daily roll-up.)

Book depth. NO is deep: 327 contracts at 0.86, then 6,752 at 0.87 and 9,313 at 0.88. A 650-lot fills at a ~0.866 blended price — well under 3¢ slippage.

KXTRUMPCOLLINS-26JUN16 · BUY YES @ 0.72 · Low conviction

Will Donald Trump endorse Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate race before Jun 16, 2026?

Current: YES 0.70 / 0.75 ask · last 0.69

My fair value: YES ≈0.78

Action: BUY YES, limit 0.72 — do not pay the 0.75 ask

Edge: ≈ +6¢ / +8.3% at the limit

Liquidity: 24h vol 0 (stale) · OI 502 · spread 5¢

Close: 2026-06-16 (runoff day) — tight 8-day window

Mispricing thesis. Trump's own 2024 high command has quietly taken over Collins' runoff campaign — the strongest possible tell that an endorsement is coming — yet the order book is frozen at a stale 70¢ bid that is below where the market traded two weeks ago.

Evidence (cited):

Trump 2024 pollster Tony Fabrizio (senior strategist), chief data strategist Tim Saler, and battleground strategist Chip Englander have all joined Collins' campaign for the June 16 runoff — "the clearest indication yet that Trump may be leaning toward endorsing Collins" (Axios, May 27).
Collins is "pushing for Trump's endorsement and has declined to break with him"; the field had zero Trump endorsements through the May 19 first round (Washington Times; NBC News).
Price context: this contract traded 75-84¢ in late May, then went to a stale 69-70¢ bid with zero volume for six straight days (Jun 3-8) — the discount looks like neglect, not new information. (market_snapshots.)

Tail risk (cleanest loss): Trump simply stays neutral in a contested runoff (he often waits), or backs Derek Dooley, and the 8-day window closes with no Truth Social post. Hiring his staff is a strong signal but not a guarantee of a public endorsement by a hard date.

Execution. This is a limit-only, may-not-fill position. Rest 150 lots at 0.72 between the 0.70 bid and 0.75 ask; the edge exists only at ≤0.73. If a Truth Social endorsement drops, the market gaps to ~95¢ — by then it is too late to chase, so the entire edge is in buying the stale book ahead of the post.

KXMILLSPLATNER-26NOV03-JUL01 · BUY NO @ 0.91 · Low conviction

Will Janet Mills publicly endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before Jul 1, 2026?

Current: YES 0.09 / NO 0.91 · last 0.09

My fair value: YES ≈0.05 / NO ≈0.95

Action: BUY NO, limit 0.91 (take what is offered)

Edge: ≈ +4¢ / +4.4% per contract

Liquidity: 24h vol 0 · OI 3,618 · book thin (~34 near fair)

Close: 2026-07-01

Mispricing thesis. Mills suspended her own Senate campaign but is pointedly staying on the ballot as the party's replacement-in-waiting and refusing to endorse Platner amid his scandal. A formal public endorsement before July 1 runs against everything she is currently doing.

Evidence (cited):

Mills suspended her campaign in late April to clear Platner's path but now "shows no sign of reigniting" it and is keeping her distance; she reminds voters she is "still on the ballot" (NBC News; Press Herald, Jun 1).
A Democrat from her own campaign says she would move "only if Platner were to step aside, not to challenge him" — i.e., she is the standby nominee, the opposite posture from endorsing him (CNN, Jun 1).
Price faded 44¢ → 9¢ over the past 10 days as this became clear. (market_snapshots.)

Tail risk (cleanest loss): Platner wins June 9 cleanly, the scandal fizzles, and party-unity pressure pushes Mills to a public endorsement before July 1. Note this is uncorrelated with the Pick 1 downside: a Platner collapse makes a Mills endorsement of him impossible (resolves NO), so this leg loses only in the rosy-for-Platner world where Pick 1 wins big.

Execution. Tiny by necessity — only ~34 contracts sit near 0.91 before the book gaps. A satellite, not a core position.

4 · Recommended $1,000 portfolio

Pick	Side / limit	Contracts	Cost	Max payout	Fair	EV ¢/ct	EV $	EV %	Conv.
KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26	NO @ 0.87	650	$562.23	$650	0.90	+3.5	+$22.8	+4.0%	High
KXTRUMPCOLLINS-26JUN16	YES @ 0.72	150	$108.00	$150	0.78	+6.0	+$9.0	+8.3%	Low
KXMILLSPLATNER-…-JUL01	NO @ 0.91	40	$36.40	$40	0.95	+4.0	+$1.6	+4.4%	Low
Total deployed	—	840	$706.63	$840	—	—	+$33.4	+4.7%	—
Cash reserve	—	—	$293.37	—	—	—	—	29.3%	—

EV uses my subjective fair values vs. the limit/blended fill price. Blended EV on deployed capital ≈ +4.7%; dollar edge ≈ +$33 over a 1-to-5-week horizon.

Risk profile.

Worst case: all three resolve against → lose the full $706.63 staked. Dominated by the Platner leg ($562).
Best case: all three resolve favorably → collect $840, a profit of +$133 (+18.9% on deployed).
Most-likely outcome: Platner stays in (NO pays, +$88 on that leg), Trump endorses Collins (YES pays, +$42), Mills doesn't endorse (NO pays, +$4) → ≈ +$133. The realistic spread is "small win most weeks, single concentrated loss if Platner withdraws."
Concentration: ~80% of risk is one binary event — does Platner withdraw by July 13? The Mills leg is small and actually diversifying (it loses only in the Platner-survives-triumphantly world, where Pick 1 wins). The Trump-Collins leg ($108) is the only fully independent position.

Execution notes.

Platner NO: limit 0.87, lift the 327 lots at 0.86 first, finish at 0.87; do not chase above 0.88. Invalidation / exit: any credible report that Platner is weighing withdrawal, Schumer or the DSCC pulling support, or a fresh disqualifying revelation. Watch the June 9 primary result — a loss resolves the contract NO under the rules (losing ≠ dropping out), but would change the withdrawal dynamics, so re-underwrite.
Trump-Collins YES: limit 0.72 only, rest it and wait — accept it may not fill. Invalidation: Trump endorses Dooley or signals neutrality in the runoff. Do not buy after an endorsement post (it gaps to ~95¢).
Mills NO: limit 0.91, take the ~34 lots offered, no chasing. Invalidation: Mills reactivates her campaign or issues any endorsement.
Reserve ($293): held deliberately. The category is thin and books are stale; the reserve is dry powder to add to Platner NO if event-driven noise pushes it to 0.83-0.84 without a real change in the fundamentals.
Hedges: none clean — these are idiosyncratic event binaries with no liquid offset. Risk control is position size, not hedging.

5 · What I rejected and why

KXAPCALL… (11 markets, CA Gov / LA Mayor "when will AP call"): the June 2 primary already happened and AP made its calls; these timing buckets are settled or sitting at 0/1¢. No trade.
KXTRUMPVH-26JUN12-T39.9 (Trump approval > 39.9%) & KXGENERICBALLOT…-T6.2 (generic ballot > 6.2%): these resolve to a specific VoteHub time-weighted average. Public aggregators straddle the thresholds (Trump approval cited anywhere from 38.6% to 44% in early June), and I cannot pin the exact VoteHub value the contract settles on. No defensible edge — rejected on principle, not on price (USPollingData; Silver Bulletin, Jun 7).
KXELECTIRAN-26JUL01 (Iran holds a presidential election before Jul 1): Iran's next scheduled presidential election is 2028 (Pezeshkian won the 2024 snap election). True probability ~1%; priced at 2-3¢. Correctly priced near the floor — no capturable edge.
KXFETTERMANSWITCH (Fetterman leaves the Democratic party) & KXLAIOUT (Lai Ching-te leaves office): both priced near zero (0-3¢, 1-5¢) and fairly so. No edge.
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01 (Díaz-Canel leaves office before Jul 1), 12¢: tempting to fade, but the 12¢ is an unknowable coup/health/resignation tail in a genuinely unstable Cuba (blackouts, unrest). I cannot defend a specific true probability, so I cannot defend the edge. Watchlist only; the book is also thin for buying NO in size.
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES (8 legs), KXFEDCOMBO (4 legs), KXPRATTCONCEDE, KXPANAMATRAFFIC (7 legs): mention/novelty markets, a miscategorized commodity series, and a Fed-rate combo with essentially no recent volume. Off-thesis or untradeable.

6 · Sources

NPR — Graham Platner isn't going anywhere after latest controversy (Jun 5, 2026)
NBC News — Democrats navigate a new Platner controversy (Schumer endorsement quote)
NBC News — Janet Mills shows no sign of reigniting her Senate bid
CNN — Mills reminds voters she's "still on the ballot" (Jun 1, 2026)
Portland Press Herald — If Platner wins, could he be replaced? (July 13 statutory deadline) (Jun 4, 2026)
Portland Press Herald — Mills: "I am still on the ballot" for Senate (Jun 1, 2026)
The Hill — Platner denies NYT allegations, vows to stay in race
Ballotpedia — Maine 2026 Democratic Senate primary (June 9)
Axios — Mike Collins hires top Trump advisers ahead of Georgia runoff (May 27, 2026)
NBC News — Collins & Dooley advance to Georgia GOP Senate runoff
Washington Times — Georgia GOP Senate primary: zero Trump endorsements, runoff looms
USPollingData — Trump approval tracker (Jun 2026); Silver Bulletin — Trump approval average
Live market & order-book data: Kalshi public API api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2; price/volume history: read-only Kalshi mirror (trading_markets, trading_events, market_snapshots), queried 2026-06-08.

Data sources: Kalshi read-only SQL mirror (markets, events, 5-minute snapshots) and the Kalshi public REST API for live order books, plus the cited primary-source news. Disclaimer: All probabilities here are subjective estimates, not guarantees. Prediction-market contracts resolve to $1 or $0 — a "mispriced" contract can still resolve to zero and lose 100% of the stake. This is research and commentary, not financial advice. Sizes assume limit orders; stale/thin books may not fill at the stated prices. Do your own diligence.