Sentinel — Position Review (AM)

2026-08-17 · 3 triggered picks reviewed · 3 exits (all capital-free, theses intact)

All three positions tripped the ≥95¢ capital-free trigger. Every thesis re-verified as intact — these are winners being harvested, not saves. All three markets close Sep 1 (15 days out), past the ~7-day hold window; the remaining 1–3¢ isn't worth the lock-up and tail risk.

NO Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch) KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · #718
Entry 92¢ now 99¢ (peak 98.5 mark) Live YES: 0 bid / 1 ask capital_free thesis intact EXIT @ 99¢ new prob 99%

The strait is effectively closed on day ~170 of the crisis: PortWatch's latest print (Aug 9) shows 1 transit against a 73/day pre-crisis baseline, with ~372 vessels holding off berth (Aug 13). A 7dMA above 60 before Sep 1 is physically impossible from here. Exit is pure capital efficiency: 1¢ left over 15+ days, top-of-book NO bid is 99¢ × 5,000+ contracts (deep), and the market's listed expiration runs to Nov 30 — settlement could lock capital well past the close. Book +7¢.

run: 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit · audit report · closes 2026-09-01
NO Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1 (duplicate line) KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 · #734
Entry 92¢ now 99¢ (peak 98.5 mark) Live YES: 0 bid / 1 ask capital_free thesis intact EXIT @ 99¢ new prob 99%

Same market and side as #718 from a sibling audit run; identical evidence and decision. Traffic is ~1% of normal and even the best ceasefire window never got the 7dMA past ~34 — normalization to >60 in two weeks cannot happen. The only residual risk is the data-artifact tail the original analyst priced at −2pts, which is exactly what we stop carrying by selling at 99¢. Exit; free the capital.

run: 2026-07-27-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · audit report · closes 2026-09-01
YES Trump makes 0 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026 KXLAGODAYS-26AUG-0 · #808
Entry 93¢ now 97¢ (peak 97.5 mark) Live YES: 97 bid / 98 ask capital_free thesis intact EXIT @ 97¢ new prob 97%

Zero Mar-a-Lago trips through Aug 16: the club is seasonally closed and Trump is running his usual Bedminster summer — traveled there Aug 7 and again Aug 14. The circulating "Palm Beach visit" and Mar-a-Lago shooting stories both date to February 2026, and NOAA shows a below-normal season with no near-term Florida threat. But 14 days of August remain, the hurricane/disaster-trip tail runs to month-end, and my ~97% equals what the 97¢ bid already implies — edge is gone. Exit at 97¢ into a 10,000+ contract bid; book +4¢.

run: 2026-08-03-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-sentinel · audit report · closes 2026-09-01