# Kalshi Copy-the-Trade — Week of 2026-05-12

Date: 2026-06-19
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-19-kalshi-week-podcast-predictions

---
# Kalshi Copy-the-Trade — Week of 2026-05-12

Cross-podcast prediction round-up, mapped to live Kalshi markets
7 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 → 2026-05-13 · 0 direct Kalshi matches, 4 proxy matches · prices snapshotted 2026-06-19 10:07 UTC
How to read this: we read this week's transcripts looking for concrete, near-term claims a speaker stuck their neck out on. For each one with a live Kalshi market, the green BET YES or red BET NO badge tells you which side to take to copy the speaker. The price is what you pay per share today; the dollar figure shows what $100 returns if the speaker is right. Direct matches are shown first.

7Predictions
0Direct Kalshi matches
4Proxy matches
3No market

Show:
All
Direct match
Proxy match
No market

Channel:
All channels
The MeidasTouch Podcast
The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

| Source | Speaker | Prediction | Copy the trade → |
|---|---|---|---|
| The MeidasTouch Podcast 45:06 | Ben Meiselasmedium near | The Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened and running at full capacity, with the administration claiming victory once it is."you just know when the strait is fully open and accessible and, and running at full capacity, they're gonna spike the football."foreign policy MeidasTouch Full Podcast - 6/19/26 | PROXY MATCH[BET YESKalshi ↗YES costs 39¢**$100** → **$256** if speaker is rightWill the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (IMF PortWatch) be above 60 before August 1, 2026?Why this side: Speaker expects the strait to return to full capacity shortly after the MOU, so the transit-call moving average crossing 60 before Aug 1 resolves Yes.Low volume · closes 2026-08-01 · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuznorm/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/kxhormuznorm-26mar17) |
| The MeidasTouch Podcast 12:05 | Ben Meiselasmedium near | The US-Iran agreement is only a memorandum of understanding, not an actual nuclear deal; a real deal is not yet in place and faces a 60-day negotiating window."It's not even a deal. It's a memorandum of understanding that has future discussions about frameworks in the future, whatever."foreign policy MeidasTouch Full Podcast - 6/19/26 | PROXY MATCH[BET NOKalshi ↗NO costs 94¢**$100** → **$106** if speaker is rightWill the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?Why this side: Speakers stress what was signed is only an MOU starting a ~60-day negotiation (ending mid-Aug), so a finalized nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026 will not exist; resolves No.Low volume · closes 2026-08-01 · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUGIf the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27) |
| The MeidasTouch Podcast 18:06 | Brett Meiselasmedium medium | Israel and Hezbollah are still fighting after the MOU and the conflict will continue in tit-for-tat fashion rather than resolving into peace."we already see a lot of signs that, uh, Israel and Hezbollah are still fighting. Israel killed a few people earlier today in Hezbollah. This is another one of kind of Iran's red lines around the MOU, so I'm incredibly worried about that."foreign policy MeidasTouch Full Podcast - 6/19/26 | PROXY MATCH[BET NOKalshi ↗NO costs 86¢**$100** → **$116** if speaker is rightWill Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?Why this side: Speakers describe active, ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting and no enduring peace, making formal Israel-Lebanon normalization before Jan 1, 2027 highly unlikely; resolves No.Low volume · closes 2027-01-01 · KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-LEBIf Israel and Lebanon normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxabrahamsa/abraham-accord-saudi-arabia/kxabrahamsa-27) |
| The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 12:26 | Jessica Tarlovmedium near | With the Iran framework reached, the Strait of Hormuz blockade will be lifted and shipping traffic will reopen imminently."we can work towards that perhaps, but it's not gonna go from, you know, sixty to zero, right, uh, when this reopens tomorrow or when the blockade gets lifted."foreign policy The Week: SpaceX, Iran, and the World's First Trillionaire | PROXY MATCH[BET YESKalshi ↗YES costs 39¢**$100** → **$256** if speaker is rightWill the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (IMF PortWatch) be above 60 before August 1, 2026?Why this side: Speaker expects the blockade lifted and the strait reopening 'tomorrow' (~late June); transit calls normalizing above 60 well before the Aug 1 cutoff implies Yes.Low volume · closes 2026-08-01 · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuznorm/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/kxhormuznorm-26mar17) |
| The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 1:59 | George Hahn (host narration)high near | SpaceX completed the largest IPO in American history this week, opening at $150/share with an ~11% pop."SpaceX went public this week. After years of waiting, the largest IPO in American history finally landed, opening at one hundred and fifty dollars a share, an eleven percent jump from its offering price, and climbing from there."markets The Week: SpaceX, Iran, and the World's First Trillionaire | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |
| The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 1:59 | George Hahn (host narration)high near | On the back of the SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk has become the world's first trillionaire."By day three, SpaceX was briefly worth more than Amazon. Elon Musk is now the world's first trillionaire."business The Week: SpaceX, Iran, and the World's First Trillionaire | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |
| The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway 1:59 | George Hahn (host narration)high near | Elon Musk's net worth has crossed $1 trillion."Elon Musk is now the world's first trillionaire."business The Week: SpaceX, Iran, and the World's First Trillionaire | NO MARKETNo Kalshi market found that matches this prediction. |

**Method:** Predictions extracted by Gemini 2.5 Pro from per-segment transcripts in the Neon Postgres (table `segments`). 17 episodes selected this week (politics, sports, markets, tech) — extraction was tuned to keep only concrete, near/medium-horizon claims with a real chance of a Kalshi market existing, and to drop vague long-horizon takes. Each extracted prediction was searched against the local Kalshi market snapshot (790k markets, latest snapshot timestamps within the last hour) using keyword overlap; up to 12 candidates per prediction were passed back to Gemini, which judged direct/proxy/none and chose the YES/NO side to copy the speaker. Markets with YES ≥ 96¢ or NO ≥ 96¢ (effectively resolved) were dropped, as were markets closing within an hour.

**Payout math:** binary markets pay $1 per share if your side wins. So `$100 / buy_price = total payout if right`. A 25¢ YES share returns $4 per $1 you bet ($100 → $400). A 90¢ YES share returns $1.11 per $1 ($100 → $111). Profit is payout minus your stake.

**Disclaimer:** nothing here is investment advice. Prices were spot-snapshotted from a local mirror of the Kalshi feed and drift continuously — click through for live odds. The side choice is the model's reading of the prediction; verify on the market page before trading. Some prediction-extractor calls return identical predictions across two podcasts (e.g. the same series pick from two sports shows); these are kept as separate rows so you can see who said what.