Kalshi Copy-the-Trade — Week of 2026-05-12

Cross-podcast prediction round-up, mapped to live Kalshi markets
3 predictions extracted from 17 episodes published 2026-05-06 → 2026-05-13 · 1 direct Kalshi matches, 1 proxy matches · prices snapshotted 2026-06-15 10:05 UTC
How to read this: we read this week's transcripts looking for concrete, near-term claims a speaker stuck their neck out on. For each one with a live Kalshi market, the green BET YES or red BET NO badge tells you which side to take to copy the speaker. The price is what you pay per share today; the dollar figure shows what $100 returns if the speaker is right. Direct matches are shown first.
3
Predictions
1
Direct Kalshi matches
1
Proxy matches
1
No market
Show:
Channel:
SourceSpeakerPredictionCopy the trade →
The MeidasTouch Podcast
11:42
Ben Meiselas (host)
high near
A new US-Iran nuclear deal has been agreed and will be formally signed Friday (June 19) in Geneva by VP JD Vance and Iran's parliament leader, with terms already published by Iranian media.
"The signing is gonna be Friday in Geneva. Uh, J.D. Vance, MB Galabaf will be signing this together. MB Galabaf, Iran parliament's leader, J.D. Vance, vice president."
foreign policy Trump Appears Fatigued as Big Day Ends in Political Defeat
DIRECT MATCH
BET YESKalshi ↗
YES costs 15¢$100$667 if speaker is right
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
Why this side: Host says terms are agreed and signing is set for Friday June 19 (before the Jul 1 cutoff), so the deal is reached in-window -> YES.
Low volume · closes 2026-07-01 · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The MeidasTouch Podcast
11:42
Ben Meiselas (host)
medium near
Under the new Iran deal the US naval blockade is lifted immediately and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to traffic within thirty days.
"reopening the Strait of Hormuz within thirty days under Iranian arrangements. Iran and Oman control, uh, the, the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz."
foreign policy Trump Appears Fatigued as Big Day Ends in Political Defeat
PROXY MATCH
BET YESKalshi ↗
YES costs 57¢$100$175 if speaker is right
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?
Why this side: Host predicts the blockade lifts and the strait reopens within 30 days (by ~mid-July); resumed traffic should push transit calls back above 60 before Aug 1 -> YES. Proxy: market measures transit volume, not a formal 'reopening'.
Low volume · closes 2026-08-01 · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pardon My Take
1:13:14
PMT host (Big Cat / Dan Katz)
medium near
After a dominant 4-0 win over Paraguay, the USMNT is playing great and will handle Australia next, implying the US advances out of World Cup Group D.
"So now we get Australia and the Socceroos. No problem. We're- We're so good ... I- We're so [laughs] fucking good at soccer."
sports The Knicks Win The NBA Title, The Hurricanes Lift The Cup, Zac And Memes Recap Their Game 5 From San Antonio, Mr Bing Bong Jerry O'Connell Surprises Hank In Studio + World Cup
NO MARKET
No Kalshi market found that matches this prediction.