| Entry → now | 86¢ → 98¢ (peak mid 98.5¢) |
| Live book (YES) | bid 1¢ / ask 2¢ · ~3,900 contracts bid at 98¢ NO — depth is fine |
| Our probability | ~98% NO · market implies ~98% — edge gone |
| Close | 2026-08-01T03:59Z (~11 days; can close early on an announcement) |
What changed since entry (2026-07-02): nothing against us — and two new points for us. No retirement announcement has followed the retracted June 30 NPR/Totenberg story; Totenberg formally apologized to Alito for the error. SCOTUSblog reports Alito has hired law clerks for the October 2026 term and has a book, So Ordered, releasing in October — behavior inconsistent with an imminent departure. The original thesis (July-recess announcements are historically rare; YES was inflated by the retraction chatter) is intact, if not strengthened.
Why exit anyway: the market has fully caught up. NO exits at 98¢ against our own ~98% probability, so the last 2¢ carries zero edge over ~11 days of locked capital — outside the desk's ~7-day hold window for capital_free positions. The one live tail is exactly what the original rationale flagged: lingering claims a genuine summer announcement may still come (e.g. speculation that a “real” announcement is forthcoming), which would early-close this market against us. Take the +12¢ and free the capital.
Also checked: NPR Public Editor retraction · Forbes fact-check · original audit: 2026-07-01 politics mispricing audit