Of 465 active business contracts closing in the next 45 days, the volume + spread + non-noise filters cut the field to a working set of 16 mid-priced markets. After diligence I keep six picks — two BUY NOs and four BUY YESs — totalling $9,000 deployed / $1,000 reserved. The biggest single edge is the BUY NO on KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457, where the market is pricing a Q1 restaurant count Cava has not yet reported with a degree of confidence that the historical opening cadence does not justify.
The audit ran in four passes:
status='active' markets in trading_events.category IN ('Companies','Financials') from /tmp/bot.db with close_time in the next 45 days. 465 rows. Dropped FX/interest-rate range markets (KXUSDJPY, KXEURUSD, KXTNOTEW, the daily S&P/Nasdaq grid) — these are short-window noise, not business mispricings.volume24h ≥ 1500, top-of-book 5¢ ≤ yes_bid ≤ 95¢, and spread (yes_ask – yes_bid) ≤ 5¢. Cut to 14 names. Hand-added two adjacent strikes (KXCAVA-458, KXKLAR-118) to read the full distribution./trade-api/v2/markets/{ticker} and /orderbook for each. Caught one stale row (the local DB still shows KXPM-26APRZYNSHIP-190 as active but the live API has status="finalized" with result "no" — Philip Morris reported 155M ZYN US-shipment cans on 22 April and the market closed the same day at 1¢).Working set after Stage 1. Last column is my verdict; each BUY / SELL picks gets a dedicated section below. PASS = priced about right or thesis too fragile to bet.
| Ticker | Subject | YES bid / ask | Vol 24h | OI | Close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19 | Starship IFT-12 by May 19 | 63 / 69 | 4,382 | 3,474 | 05-20 | BUY NO |
| KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY31 | Starship IFT-12 by May 31 | 93 / 94 | 15,985 | 84,204 | 06-01 | PASS — fair |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-10 | >10 SpaceX launches in May | 93 / 94 | 2,364 | 15,886 | 06-01 | PASS — fair |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12 | >12 SpaceX launches in May | 47 / 48 | 3,808 | 20,735 | 06-01 | BUY YES |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13 | >13 SpaceX launches in May | 12 / 13 | 10,850 | 41,382 | 06-01 | BUY YES |
| KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457 | Cava >457 restaurants Q1 | 75 / 79 | 14,757 | 12,297 | 06-13 | BUY NO |
| KXCAVA-26MAYREST-458 | Cava >458 restaurants Q1 | 26 / 27 | 3,819 | 3,623 | 06-13 | WATCH |
| KXCAVA-26MAYREST-460 | Cava >460 restaurants Q1 | 8 / 9 | 40,559 | 110,868 | 06-13 | PASS — fair |
| KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150M | Costco >150M cardholders Q3 | 16 / 17 | 8,192 | 15,397 | 06-27 | BUY YES |
| KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-118M | Klarna >118M consumers Q1 | 98 / 99 | 2,274 | 2,240 | 05-15 | PASS — capped |
| KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-120M | Klarna >120M consumers Q1 | 79 / 82 | 5,509 | 4,564 | 05-15 | PASS — fair |
| KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122M | Klarna >122M consumers Q1 | 17 / 18 | 4,230 | 4,370 | 05-15 | BUY YES (small) |
| KXLOW-26MAYTRAN-195M | Lowe's >195M Q1 transactions | 69 / 70 | 1,550 | 1,026 | 05-21 | PASS — fair |
| KXLOW-26MAYTRAN-204M | Lowe's >204M Q1 transactions | 5 / 6 | 2,064 | 1,203 | 05-21 | PASS — fair |
| KXOMEGA-MAY-5534 | Bezel Omega Index >$5,534 | 41 / 42 | 1,911 | 1,374 | 05-31 | PASS — opaque |
| KXPM-26APRZYNSHIP-190M | PM >190M ZYN US-ship Q1 | — | — | — | — | REJECT — finalized NO 4/22 |
SpaceX itself is publishing a no-earlier-than (NET) date of May 19, 2026, 5:30pm CT with a broader window of May 15–21. The Kalshi rules resolve YES only if the launch happens before May 20 — i.e. on the NET date itself with no slip. The market is pricing this at 63% YES, which assumes essentially no scrub risk on a debut V3 vehicle.
Thin. Visible YES bid depth is ~50 contracts total across 0.55–0.62; deeper NO ask only fills materially at 0.37–0.41. I size this conservatively at $1,500 and place limit BUY NO at $0.34, willing to walk up to $0.38 average. If unfilled by close-of-business 5/15 I drop the limit — by then the rocket either rolls or the price gaps.
Drifted from 70% YES (5/1) → 67% (5/6) → 66% today as the V3 reality set in. Hasn't broken lower because traders don't want to be short going into a confirmed launch window. Plenty of room to fall toward the actual NO probability if the rocket scrubs once.
The three adjacent strikes in this event imply the market is concentrated on Q1 2026 = 458 restaurants exactly — >457 YES at 78%, >458 YES at 26%, >460 YES at 8%. That gives an implied P(Q1 = 458) ≈ 52%, with only ~22% mass at ≤457. Cava has not yet reported — earnings are May 19 — and the historical Q1 opening cadence does not justify this much certainty.
OI 12k, decent depth on the NO side (~400 contracts at 0.14, 450 at 0.15, 840 at 0.17). Limit BUY NO at $0.20 should fill at least partially overnight; walk up to $0.23 average. Size $2,000.
Strike opened 5/12 at 31/69 wide quote, settled today at 75/79 on the back of 14.7k volume — but most of that volume looks like a single block accumulating YES exposure to read a 458 print. The adjacent >460 strike crashed 50% → 14% on 5/7 on 25k volume, which tells me the market took out the right tail aggressively — but did not necessarily nail the center.
Through May 12 SpaceX has flown 56 Falcon-family vehicles in 2026 (Wikipedia / Spaceflight Now). YTD through April was 52, so May-to-date is 4 launches in 12 days. The market has extrapolated the slow first half to a ~10–11 monthly total and priced >12 at 47% YES. The published launch schedule says otherwise.
OI 20.7k, tight 1¢ spread. Place limit BUY YES at $0.47, willing to lift to $0.49. Size $2,000.
Mirror of Pick 3. If my May-total distribution puts mass at 12–14 launches with a meaningful right tail, then >13 (i.e. ≥14) is a 25–35% event, not a 12% event. Same Spaceflight Now / Wikipedia schedule and FAA cadence data underlie both calls.
I am buying both >12 and >13 because they hedge nicely: if total = 13 exactly, the >13 ticket loses but >12 wins; if total = 14+, both win. The >13 ticket is the right-tail call at 13¢, where I'm risking $0.13 to make $0.87 if SpaceX matches the kind of week-three sprint we saw in March (5 launches in 8 days).
OI 41.4k, tight 1¢. Limit YES at $0.12. Size $1,000.
If a Starship anomaly or vehicle stand-down lands in the next 18 days, Falcon throughput drops and 14+ becomes very hard. The recent price drift from 60% → 12% on this strike does suggest the market is fading the right tail aggressively.
Costco's cardholder count grows ~1.7–2.1M per quarter. The trajectory through FY2026 is on a knife-edge with 150M:
| Period | Cardholders | Δ vs prior Q |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 (end Nov 2025) | 145.9M | — |
| Q2 FY26 (end Feb 2026) | 147.8M | +1.9M |
| Q3 FY26 (end May 2026, reported late May) | ? | consensus ~+1.7M → ~149.5M |
At trend that's 149.5M, just under threshold. But April retail-month sales (4 weeks ending 5/3) printed +13.0% net / +11.6% comp — among the strongest comp months in two years, with Q2's +13.6% membership-fee growth still trending. A +2.1–2.4M cardholder quarter would clear 150M cleanly.
OI 15.4k, tight 1¢ spread, ~7k contracts resting at 0.16. Limit BUY YES at $0.16, walk to $0.17. Size $1,750.
Klarna reports Q1 2026 tomorrow, 14 May, before market open — the market closes 5/15. Quarterly consumer adds have been accelerating with US growth: 111M (Q2 2025) → 114M (Q3) → 118M (Q4). Extrapolating the +3–4M/quarter ramp puts Q1 2026 at 121–122M, with a real chance of overshoot given the US card / banking-services momentum the company called out in the Q4 release.
The >122M strike crashed from 39% to 17% during today's session on 2k volume. That is consistent with someone reading a leaked or whispered number, or simply with a re-pricing as the report gets closer. Either way I do not have the same information edge as I do on Cava or Starship. I take a small position to express the view that even ~25% probability is meaningfully above 18% market price.
OI 4.4k, tight 1¢ spread. Place limit at $0.17. Size $750.
The adjacent >120M strike at 79–82% YES is roughly fair on my model (I have P(>120M) ≈ 75%). If I wanted to fade the same information, that's where I'd short — but the edge is <5¢ so it isn't worth a separate ticket.
| # | Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max payout | P(win) | EV ¢ | EV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19 | NO | 0.36 | 4,170 | $1,500 | $4,170 | 55% | +19 | +53% |
| 2 | KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457 | NO | 0.21 | 9,520 | $2,000 | $9,520 | 50% | +29 | +138% |
| 3 | KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12 | YES | 0.48 | 4,170 | $2,000 | $4,170 | 60% | +12 | +25% |
| 4 | KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13 | YES | 0.13 | 7,690 | $1,000 | $7,690 | 28% | +15 | +115% |
| 5 | KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150M | YES | 0.17 | 10,300 | $1,750 | $10,300 | 30% | +13 | +76% |
| 6 | KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122M | YES | 0.18 | 4,170 | $750 | $4,170 | 25% | +7 | +39% |
| Deployed | $9,000 | $40,020 | |||||||
| Reserve (opportunistic adds) | $1,000 | ||||||||
The local DB still flags this market active. The live API says status:"finalized", result:"no" as of 22 April 2026. Philip Morris reported ZYN US shipment volume of 155M cans for Q1 2026 (vs ~175M offtake) on 4/22; the market closed at 1¢. Surfacing this is the audit's main reminder to never trust the local DB's status alone.
YES 93/94, P(launch by 5/31) ≈ 90–93%. Even with V3 vehicle / Pad 2 risk, a 12-day buffer past NET captures essentially the entire scrub-and-retry distribution. Edge ≤2¢, not worth crossing 1¢ spread for.
YES 93/94. With ≥9 launches already locked in by 5/22, hitting 11 by 5/31 is a near-certainty (~95–97%). Edge ~3¢ at fill, not enough for the capital cost.
YES 8/9. My model puts P(Q1 ≥ 461) ≈ 5–8%. Price is right; no edge.
YES 26/27. My P(Q1 ≥ 459) ≈ 31%, so a small (+4¢) YES edge exists. The reason I don't take it: the BUY NO on the >457 strike (Pick 2) expresses the same view on the joint distribution with a much larger edge, so doubling up on adjacent strikes adds correlation without adding meaningful new alpha. If Pick 2 fills early at a great price, I might add a small >458 YES with the reserve.
YES 79/82. My P(Q1 > 120M) ≈ 75%. With 3¢ spread, edge is sub-2¢ net of slippage. Not enough.
YES 98/99 with Klarna already publicly claiming "over 118M" users in marketing materials. Essentially resolved already; 1¢ left isn't worth the capital.
Lowe's Q1 reports 5/20. Management telegraphed Q1 comps "below midpoint" of full-year guide due to February winter storms. Range of likely Q1 transactions is ~190–202M; the strikes at 195 and 204 are placed exactly to bracket the consensus. 70% YES on >195 and 5% YES on >204 both look about right; my edges are within the spread. Skip.
Bezel Omega Index resolves on a single 3rd-party-published price as of 5/31. The index methodology, current level, and constituent watches are not easily verifiable from primary sources within the audit window. With OI 1.4k and ~50% pricing, there is no way to claim a defensible edge.
The Companies + Financials category in the DB is dominated by KXUSDJPY, KXEURUSD, KXNASDAQ100, KXTNOTEW, and KXINX grids — hourly or daily strike-range markets. These aren't business-mispricing opportunities; they're short-window microstructure plays where any edge would be eaten by the spread. Filtered out at Stage 1.
All numbers in this report trace to one of these primary sources or to the local Kalshi snapshot DB.
Data sources: Kalshi public REST API (api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2) for live quotes and orderbooks; local Kalshi snapshot DB (/tmp/bot.db, last refreshed during this audit) for price history and 24h volume; company investor-relations pages and major news outlets for KPI grounding. Probability estimates in this report are subjective and reflect my best interpretation of public information at 13 May 2026. Kalshi contracts that resolve against the holder pay $0.00; the maximum loss per pick equals the capital cost shown. This audit is not investment advice; sizes are illustrative and ignore taxes, fees, and broker withdrawal frictions.