# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Date: 2026-08-13
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-13-kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi Politics — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted)

Run date 2026-08-13 · Keel v4 (archetype-targeted, precedent-fed) · horizon 45 days (through 2026-09-27) · capital $10,000

0Picks
44Logged rejects
$10,000Cash (100%)
3Stage-0 survivors

## Verdict — an efficient (empty) week

**Zero picks; hold 100% cash.** The v4 universe (117 allowlisted series) contains 44 open markets closing inside the 45-day horizon. Every one fails the pipeline:

- **39 of 44** fail mechanical cuts outright — live vol24h < 500 (the zero-volume graveyard: 98 of 136 historical picks entered dead books, negative edge), spreads > 5¢, or quotes pinned at tails (≤5¢ ask) / deep favorites (≥95¢ bid).
- **2 survivors are existing live picks** (KXHEGSETHOUT NO, KXPIRROOUT NO) — hard-barred from re-entry.
- **1 survivor (KXMAMDANIEO) is band-rejected**: both sides sit outside the 40–89¢ deployable range, and the thesis is a count-pace extrapolation.

This is the structural picture the v4 record predicted: with no near-dated institutional processes actually in motion (no confirmation votes scheduled, no bills at the floor, no departures in progress inside the window), every near-dated discrete market has converged to a tail or a deep favorite. Cash is a position; 40–70% cash is normal in an efficient week — 100% is the honest output of this one. Deploying into 95¢ favorites to force a slate is exactly the failure mode the ≥90¢ ban exists to prevent (the 94¢ “lock” that broke in 48h remains the permanent memorial).

## Notable rejects (researched)

KXMAMDANIEO-26AUG15-T0
confirmation/enactREJECT
Will Mamdani sign above 0 executive orders between Aug 9, 2026 and Aug 15, 2026?
yes 5.0/6.0¢ · vol24h 4279 · OI 5584 · closes 2026-08-16

Stage-0 survivor (5/6¢, vol24h 4,279, closes Aug 16). Rules: resolves YES if Mamdani signs >0 _non-emergency_ executive orders Aug 9–15. No precedent rows in store → cold derivation from settled siblings: 9 settled weekly markets, 2 YES / 7 NO (~22% weekly base rate); both YES weeks resolved early on announcement day. Primary sources (nyc.gov, reviewmamdani.com): last non-emergency EO was #19 on Jul 23 — a 21-day quiet stretch, nothing signed Aug 9–12, 3 days left in the window. **Prob: 15% pre-market → 10% final** (blended toward a liquid 7.6k-contract ask). Paper edge vs the 6¢ ask is thin-to-positive, but YES entry sits in the banned <40¢ tail band (tails 0-for-8 lifetime) and the thesis is an EO-count pace extrapolation — the documented graveyard. Reject.

KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01
multi-news-otherREJECT
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026?
yes 4.8/5.8¢ · vol24h 7881 · OI 175194 · closes 2026-09-01

Passes mechanical cuts (4.8/5.8¢, vol24h 7,881) but is an existing live pick (NO). Precedents KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01 and -JUL01 both resolved NO: resignation calls and IG findings have never resolved this archetype YES. No new leg allowed.

KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01
multi-news-otherREJECT
Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of 
yes 13.0/14.0¢ · vol24h 2940 · OI 33532 · closes 2026-09-01

Passes mechanical cuts (13/14¢, vol24h 2,940) but is an existing live pick (NO). Rules_secondary notes resolution keys on when departure is publicly announced or official. No new leg allowed.

KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01
departure/ousterREJECT
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Sep 1, 2026?
yes 10.0/15.0¢ · vol24h 176 · OI 1633 · closes 2026-09-01

The only other book near a playable band (NO effective entry ~85–90¢) — but live vol24h is 176, under the hard 500 floor from the resolved record (98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books; negative-edge cohort). Reject on liquidity.

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
scheduled-processREJECT
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
yes 1.0/2.0¢ · vol24h 19613 · OI 880479 · closes 2026-09-01

Biggest OI in the horizon (880k) but priced 1/2¢. Precedent store: -26JUN and -26JUL both resolved NO — the rulebook requires an executed written instrument meeting both prongs, not 'ongoing negotiations'. NO side costs 98–99¢ (deep-favorite reject); YES is a tail. No playable side.

KXKASHOUT-26APR-26SEP01
departure/ousterREJECT
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Sep 1, 2026?
yes 4.0/5.0¢ · vol24h 694 · OI 14188 · closes 2026-09-01

4/5¢. Precedents -26APR-JUN01 and -JUL01 both NO: anonymous 'matter of time' sourcing is not a resolution event; only an actual vacancy pays. NO side at ~96¢ is a deep-favorite reject; YES is a tail. No playable side.

## Full reject log — mechanical cuts

| Market | Archetype | Bid/Ask ¢ | Vol24h | OI | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1.0/2.0 | 615 | 15690 | tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLEAVELISACOOK-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2.0/3.0 | 335 | 5091 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1.1/4.8 | 151 | 29311 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 61 | 1643 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25 | scheduled-process | 2.0/4.0 | 31 | 3674 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01 | legal-action | 0.0/1.0 | 25 | 63467 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/1.0 | 21 | 165913 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL | confirmation/enact | 2.0/5.0 | 20 | 3982 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C26 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 19 | 322 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 | scheduled-process | 97.0/98.0 | 14 | 2352 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); deep-favorite band (>=90c) |
| KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 6.0/11.0 | 5 | 997 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); both sides outside entry bands |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/2.0 | 4 | 107669 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 4.0/5.0 | 4 | 2761 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.1/0.2 | 0 | 243558 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXBURNHAMOUT-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 7993 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25 | scheduled-process | 0.0/4.0 | 0 | 338 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H26 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 233 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50 | scheduled-process | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 4644 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P | scheduled-process | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 4645 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P | scheduled-process | 1.0/4.0 | 0 | 3598 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 3395 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 3395 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | scheduled-process | 94.0/99.0 | 0 | 5286 | illiquid book (vol24h<500) |
| KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.0/4.0 | 0 | 606 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.0/7.0 | 0 | 3888 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); spread >5c; both sides outside entry bands |
| KXFARMBILL-26MAY-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 4898 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1.0/3.0 | 0 | 7025 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/3.0 | 0 | 256 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 148956 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOSTARLINK-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 12779 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 3831 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-3 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 812 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-4 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 7880 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 34460 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2.0/3.0 | 0 | 10071 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXRECNCH-27-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 9710 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 2213 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | departure/ouster | 2.0/24.0 | 0 | 3065 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); spread >5c; both sides outside entry bands |

## Cluster / conviction / risk tables

**Clusters:** none deployed (one-leg-per-cluster rule untested this run). **Conviction exposure:** HIGH $0, MEDIUM $0, cash $10,000 (100%), reserve requirement (≥$1,000) trivially satisfied. **EV for the record:** $0 at risk, $0 expected. **Risk profile:** zero market risk; opportunity-cost risk only. **Execution notes:** nothing to execute; no limit orders recommended.

## Method & data notes

- **Stage 0:** universe strictly from targets.json (117 series after dedup). Mirror DB returned stale rows (past-close markets still ‘active’), so the candidate list and all cut inputs were re-verified against the live Kalshi API (*_dollars / *_fp fields; bare-cent fields are null, as documented).
- **Stage 1:** precedent store consulted (154 rows / 22 series). Departure/ouster precedents are uniformly NO across KXKASHOUT, KXHEGSETHOUT, KXLUTNICKOUT, KXALITOOUT, KXLEAVEWALZ, KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV — reinforcing that the 95¢ NO-side “free money” on this slate is already fully priced.
- **Probability before price:** exercised on the single live candidate (KXMAMDANIEO: 15% pre-market → 10% blended).
- **Precedent writeback:** 1 row (KXMAMDANIEO weekly base rate, verified against settled-market API results + nyc.gov / reviewmamdani.com).
- **Existing picks honored:** KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 and KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 logged as rejects, not re-picked.
- Why the slate is thin: the high-volume target series (KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE 249k vol24, KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE, KXFEDERALCHARGE, KXBILLS year-end rungs) all close after Sep 27 and fall outside the 45-day horizon by rule.

Keel v4 · generated 2026-08-13 · report slug kalshi-politics-mispricing-audit-v4