Stage-0 universe
53
open target-series markets ≤ Sep 19
targets.json (120 pre-classified series, 70 Tier-1 / 50 Tier-2) · Horizon 45 days · Capital $2,500This is a correctly-priced week, and v4 says to say so. The 45-day window is dominated by one Senate floor week (Aug 3–7, recess Aug 10 → after Labor Day) and one hot news cycle (Trump vs. Pirro). Both are being traded by liquid, specialist-dense books that repriced faster than any thesis we could form from public sources: the Blanche confirmation rung moved 12¢ → 85¢ in 72 hours as the committee standoff repaired; the Pirro Sep-1 rung round-tripped 46¢ → 71¢ → 30¢ around the Oval Office confrontation. Every Stage-2 survivor failed the edge, band, or 48h-move gate and is logged below with a committed probability, so the reject log shadow-tracks this run's judgment.
Prob: 88% pre-market → 84% final (blended toward a very liquid book). The bull case is real and
mostly mechanical: committee 12–10 after the holdouts' named demands were met, cloture filed this morning,
recess as forcing function, floor votes scheduled Fri/Sat. But the residual 15¢ is not free: Collins is a
declared NO with a margin of one; Murkowski and Cassidy are uncommitted; a withdrawal resolves NO
immediately (dated resolver clarification in rules_secondary); and any slip past Saturday is a
mechanical NO because the Senate does not return before Sep 1. Deductions: floor defection −8, schedule
collapse into the CR fight −4, withdrawal −2. Fair ≈ 84 vs. 86¢ effective entry (only 13 contracts visible at
85; real depth at 86) → edge ≤ 0 in the thin-favorite band. The book already repriced 12¢ → 85¢ on the exact
thesis in 72h.
Prob (YES): 25% pre-market → 27% final. The departure-archetype precedent corpus leans NO: not fired at the confrontation, no successor floated, principal fighting to keep the office ($25k retention bonuses), and "considering removal" sourcing has never resolved this archetype YES. But the market got there first — the rung spiked 46¢ → 71¢ on meeting day and collapsed to 30¢ within 24 hours of the "not fired" reporting. Selling the spike was the trade on Aug 4; at 70–71¢ effective today the residual edge is 2–3¢ of pure archetype base-rate against a specialist-dense book, in a market where a single Truth Social post resolves YES (announcement counts regardless of effective date). That is a public-info-only thesis inside slippage.
Prob (YES): 5%. Requires an announcement within hours. Nothing pending as of the Aug 5 afternoon news cycle. Both sides fall outside the v4 entry bands; tails are 0-for-8 lifetime.
Prob (YES): 7%. Same thesis as the Aug 6 rung with one more day of Trump-whim exposure. Logged so the cluster shadow-tracks.
Prob (YES): 15% pre-market → 13% final. Verified zero eligible confirmations Aug 1–5; the July blitz
(Flowers, Martin, Pozos, Traynor) landed Jul 22–24 and does not count; recess Aug 10 → Sep 7 makes this week
the entire August window; and Thune's Aug 5 cloture filings included no judicial nominees (judges are excluded
from en bloc batching, and CIT/Tax Court confirmations don't count under rules_secondary). The only
YES path is two judicial cloture petitions by Thursday amid a CR fight — possible, not probable. Slight
positive EV at 10¢ but hard-banned; logged to shadow-track the <40¢ rule.
Observed in passing this run: Thune publicly committed to a CLARITY Act vote before the recess — consistent with the live YES position.
| Cut rule | Markets | Notable examples |
|---|---|---|
| Live volume24h < 500 (zero-volume phantom-edge rule) | 42 | All KXSENATECONFIRM legs, KXLAKECONF, KXKASHOUT-SEP01, KXLEAVEWALZ, KXHEGSETH monthlies (some had quotes but dead books), IPO series, most Banxico/BoC strikes, KXIMPEACH-SEP01 (421), KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT (371) |
| YES ask ≤ 5¢ (tail) | 6 | KXPIRROOUT-AUG07, KXIPOANTHROPIC-SEP01, KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-SEP01, KXHEGSETHOUT-SEP01, KXALITOOUT-SEP01, KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-26SEP |
| YES bid ≥ 95¢ (deep favorite) | 1 | KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-HOLD (96 bid) |
The August recess explains the dead books: with the Senate about to leave and no scheduled catalysts, 42 of 53 target-series markets traded fewer than 500 contracts in 24h. The 98-of-136 zero-volume lesson from the resolved record makes these hard cuts, not judgment calls.
| Cluster | Best leg | Decision | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
blanche-ag-confirmation | KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01 YES | Reject — no edge at 86¢ | $0 |
pirro-out | KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 NO | Reject — 48h move captured | $0 |
judges-aug-count | KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 YES | Reject — band (<40¢) | $0 |
| Cash | $2,500 (100%) | ||
| Tier | Positions | Cost | % of capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| MEDIUM | 0 | $0 | 0% |
| Cash reserve | — | $2,500 | 100% |
KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG05, KXAGCONF-26-AUG01):
the not-fired-deflation pattern and the transactional-standoff-repairs-fast pattern.Universe restricted to the pre-classified target allowlist; probabilities committed before
studying the book, then blended; Stage-1 precedent retrieval before opinion formation; one leg per cluster;
entry bands 40–84¢ core / 85–89¢ half-size / hard rejects outside; sizing EV-agnostic (HIGH 15% · MEDIUM 7% of
capital, halved in the thin-favorite band), depth-capped at ⅓ of visible contracts; every non-pick survivor
logged with side, price, and probability so the record can grade the rules as well as the picks.
Data: mirror DB via query API (schema-first), Kalshi public API (*_fp fields, candlesticks endpoint),
primary-source news (senate.gov daily press, uscourts.gov confirmation listing, NPR/WaPo/NBC/CNN/WTOP).