Zero picks; hold 100% cash. The v4 universe (117 allowlisted series) contains 44 open markets closing inside the 45-day horizon. Every one fails the pipeline:
This is the structural picture the v4 record predicted: with no near-dated institutional processes actually in motion (no confirmation votes scheduled, no bills at the floor, no departures in progress inside the window), every near-dated discrete market has converged to a tail or a deep favorite. Cash is a position; 40–70% cash is normal in an efficient week — 100% is the honest output of this one. Deploying into 95¢ favorites to force a slate is exactly the failure mode the ≥90¢ ban exists to prevent (the 94¢ “lock” that broke in 48h remains the permanent memorial).
Stage-0 survivor (5/6¢, vol24h 4,279, closes Aug 16). Rules: resolves YES if Mamdani signs >0 non-emergency executive orders Aug 9–15. No precedent rows in store → cold derivation from settled siblings: 9 settled weekly markets, 2 YES / 7 NO (~22% weekly base rate); both YES weeks resolved early on announcement day. Primary sources (nyc.gov, reviewmamdani.com): last non-emergency EO was #19 on Jul 23 — a 21-day quiet stretch, nothing signed Aug 9–12, 3 days left in the window. Prob: 15% pre-market → 10% final (blended toward a liquid 7.6k-contract ask). Paper edge vs the 6¢ ask is thin-to-positive, but YES entry sits in the banned <40¢ tail band (tails 0-for-8 lifetime) and the thesis is an EO-count pace extrapolation — the documented graveyard. Reject.
Passes mechanical cuts (4.8/5.8¢, vol24h 7,881) but is an existing live pick (NO). Precedents KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-JUN01 and -JUL01 both resolved NO: resignation calls and IG findings have never resolved this archetype YES. No new leg allowed.
Passes mechanical cuts (13/14¢, vol24h 2,940) but is an existing live pick (NO). Rules_secondary notes resolution keys on when departure is publicly announced or official. No new leg allowed.
The only other book near a playable band (NO effective entry ~85–90¢) — but live vol24h is 176, under the hard 500 floor from the resolved record (98 of 136 historical picks entered zero-volume books; negative-edge cohort). Reject on liquidity.
Biggest OI in the horizon (880k) but priced 1/2¢. Precedent store: -26JUN and -26JUL both resolved NO — the rulebook requires an executed written instrument meeting both prongs, not 'ongoing negotiations'. NO side costs 98–99¢ (deep-favorite reject); YES is a tail. No playable side.
4/5¢. Precedents -26APR-JUN01 and -JUL01 both NO: anonymous 'matter of time' sourcing is not a resolution event; only an actual vacancy pays. NO side at ~96¢ is a deep-favorite reject; YES is a tail. No playable side.
| Market | Archetype | Bid/Ask ¢ | Vol24h | OI | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1.0/2.0 | 615 | 15690 | tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLEAVELISACOOK-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2.0/3.0 | 335 | 5091 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1.1/4.8 | 151 | 29311 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 61 | 1643 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25 | scheduled-process | 2.0/4.0 | 31 | 3674 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01 | legal-action | 0.0/1.0 | 25 | 63467 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/1.0 | 21 | 165913 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL | confirmation/enact | 2.0/5.0 | 20 | 3982 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C26 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 19 | 322 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 | scheduled-process | 97.0/98.0 | 14 | 2352 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); deep-favorite band (>=90c) |
| KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 6.0/11.0 | 5 | 997 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); both sides outside entry bands |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/2.0 | 4 | 107669 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLUXONOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 4.0/5.0 | 4 | 2761 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.1/0.2 | 0 | 243558 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXBURNHAMOUT-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 7993 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25 | scheduled-process | 0.0/4.0 | 0 | 338 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H26 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 233 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50 | scheduled-process | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 4644 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P | scheduled-process | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 4645 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P | scheduled-process | 1.0/4.0 | 0 | 3598 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50 | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 3395 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P | scheduled-process | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 3395 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | scheduled-process | 94.0/99.0 | 0 | 5286 | illiquid book (vol24h<500) |
| KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.0/4.0 | 0 | 606 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.0/7.0 | 0 | 3888 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); spread >5c; both sides outside entry bands |
| KXFARMBILL-26MAY-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 4898 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1.0/3.0 | 0 | 7025 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/3.0 | 0 | 256 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 148956 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXIPOSTARLINK-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 12779 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 3831 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-3 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 812 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-4 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 7880 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 34460 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2.0/3.0 | 0 | 10071 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXRECNCH-27-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/2.0 | 0 | 9710 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0.0/1.0 | 0 | 2213 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); tail band (<40c) / NO side >=90c |
| KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | departure/ouster | 2.0/24.0 | 0 | 3065 | illiquid book (vol24h<500); spread >5c; both sides outside entry bands |
Clusters: none deployed (one-leg-per-cluster rule untested this run). Conviction exposure: HIGH $0, MEDIUM $0, cash $10,000 (100%), reserve requirement (≥$1,000) trivially satisfied. EV for the record: $0 at risk, $0 expected. Risk profile: zero market risk; opportunity-cost risk only. Execution notes: nothing to execute; no limit orders recommended.