# Kalshi Business — Mispricing Audit, 13 May 2026

Date: 2026-05-13
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-05-13-kalshi-business-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Business — Mispricing Audit

  Report date: 2026-05-13  · 
  Category: Business (Companies + Financials in Kalshi taxonomy)  · 
  Horizon: contracts closing by 2026-06-27  · 
  Capital: $10,000

Of **465 active business contracts** closing in the next 45 days, the volume + spread + non-noise filters cut the field to a working set of 16 mid-priced markets. After diligence I keep **six picks** — two BUY NOs and four BUY YESs — totalling **$9,000 deployed / $1,000 reserved**. The biggest single edge is the BUY NO on KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457, where the market is pricing a Q1 restaurant count Cava has not yet reported with a degree of confidence that the historical opening cadence does not justify.

## 1. How this was researched

The audit ran in four passes:

1. **DB filter.** Pulled all `status='active'` markets in `trading_events.category IN ('Companies','Financials')` from `/tmp/bot.db` with `close_time` in the next 45 days. 465 rows. Dropped FX/interest-rate range markets (KXUSDJPY, KXEURUSD, KXTNOTEW, the daily S&P/Nasdaq grid) — these are short-window noise, not business mispricings.
2. **Liquidity + price filter.** Kept rows with `volume24h ≥ 1500`, top-of-book `5¢ ≤ yes_bid ≤ 95¢`, and spread `(yes_ask – yes_bid) ≤ 5¢`. Cut to **14 names**. Hand-added two adjacent strikes (KXCAVA-458, KXKLAR-118) to read the full distribution.
3. **Live verification.** Hit `/trade-api/v2/markets/{ticker}` and `/orderbook` for each. Caught one stale row (the local DB still shows KXPM-26APRZYNSHIP-190 as `active` but the live API has `status="finalized"` with result `"no"` — Philip Morris reported 155M ZYN US-shipment cans on 22 April and the market closed the same day at 1¢).
4. **News diligence.** For each survivor I pulled the rules text, mapped the resolution to a specific company KPI or event, and grounded a true-probability estimate in published earnings releases, Wikipedia launch logs, FAA/launch-schedule databases, and the issuing company's investor relations page. Primary sources are linked at the bottom.

## 2. Markets reviewed

Working set after Stage 1. Last column is my verdict; each BUY / SELL picks gets a dedicated section below. PASS = priced about right or thesis too fragile to bet.

| Ticker | Subject | YES bid / ask | Vol 24h | OI | Close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19 | Starship IFT-12 by May 19 | 63 / 69 | 4,382 | 3,474 | 05-20 | BUY NO |
| KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY31 | Starship IFT-12 by May 31 | 93 / 94 | 15,985 | 84,204 | 06-01 | PASS — fair |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-10 | >10 SpaceX launches in May | 93 / 94 | 2,364 | 15,886 | 06-01 | PASS — fair |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12 | >12 SpaceX launches in May | 47 / 48 | 3,808 | 20,735 | 06-01 | BUY YES |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13 | >13 SpaceX launches in May | 12 / 13 | 10,850 | 41,382 | 06-01 | BUY YES |
| KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457 | Cava >457 restaurants Q1 | 75 / 79 | 14,757 | 12,297 | 06-13 | BUY NO |
| KXCAVA-26MAYREST-458 | Cava >458 restaurants Q1 | 26 / 27 | 3,819 | 3,623 | 06-13 | WATCH |
| KXCAVA-26MAYREST-460 | Cava >460 restaurants Q1 | 8 / 9 | 40,559 | 110,868 | 06-13 | PASS — fair |
| KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150M | Costco >150M cardholders Q3 | 16 / 17 | 8,192 | 15,397 | 06-27 | BUY YES |
| KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-118M | Klarna >118M consumers Q1 | 98 / 99 | 2,274 | 2,240 | 05-15 | PASS — capped |
| KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-120M | Klarna >120M consumers Q1 | 79 / 82 | 5,509 | 4,564 | 05-15 | PASS — fair |
| KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122M | Klarna >122M consumers Q1 | 17 / 18 | 4,230 | 4,370 | 05-15 | BUY YES (small) |
| KXLOW-26MAYTRAN-195M | Lowe's >195M Q1 transactions | 69 / 70 | 1,550 | 1,026 | 05-21 | PASS — fair |
| KXLOW-26MAYTRAN-204M | Lowe's >204M Q1 transactions | 5 / 6 | 2,064 | 1,203 | 05-21 | PASS — fair |
| KXOMEGA-MAY-5534 | Bezel Omega Index >$5,534 | 41 / 42 | 1,911 | 1,374 | 05-31 | PASS — opaque |
| KXPM-26APRZYNSHIP-190M | PM >190M ZYN US-ship Q1 | — | — | — | — | REJECT — finalized NO 4/22 |

## 3. Top picks

 ===================== PICK 1 ===================== 

### BUY NO KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19 · Starship Flight 12 launches by May 19, 2026

Limit:NO at $0.36 (= sell YES at $0.64)
Best live quote:YES 0.63 bid / 0.69 ask  →  NO 0.31 bid / 0.37 ask
My true probability:P(launch by May 19) ≈ 45%  →  P(NO) ≈ 55%
Edge:+19¢ per NO contract  ·  +53% EV at fill

#### Mispricing thesis

SpaceX itself is publishing a _no-earlier-than_ (NET) date of **May 19, 2026, 5:30pm CT** with a broader window of May 15–21. The Kalshi rules resolve YES only if the launch happens _before May 20_ — i.e. on the NET date itself with no slip. The market is pricing this at 63% YES, which assumes essentially no scrub risk on a debut V3 vehicle.

#### Evidence

- Starship Flight 12 is the **first flight of Starship V3**, pairing the new Booster 19 (33-engine static fire complete in April) with Ship 39 powered by Raptor 3 engines — a clean-sheet redesign, not a Block-5-style iteration (Wikipedia, May 12 update).
- Booster 18 — the original assignment — was **destroyed during testing in November 2025**; B19 had to be re-prepped, which is why the launch slipped from earlier in 2026 to mid-May.
- It is also the **first flight from Starbase Pad 2**, adding pad-commissioning risk on top of vehicle risk.
- Historical Starship test cadence: of the last five IFTs, three scrubbed at least once at T-minus and slipped 1–4 days; only IFT-9 hit its NET on the nose.

#### Tail risks (what makes me wrong)

- SpaceX completes wet dress and weather cooperates — they have hit NET dates before, and a 5:30pm CT window with overnight backup is roomy.
- If the market has been positioning around a quiet "all systems go" status I can't see (e.g. internal flight readiness review), my prior is too pessimistic.

#### Liquidity & execution

Thin. Visible YES bid depth is ~50 contracts total across 0.55–0.62; deeper NO ask only fills materially at 0.37–0.41. I size this **conservatively at $1,500** and place limit BUY NO at $0.34, willing to walk up to $0.38 average. If unfilled by close-of-business 5/15 I drop the limit — by then the rocket either rolls or the price gaps.

#### Price history (last 14 days)

Drifted from 70% YES (5/1) → 67% (5/6) → 66% today as the V3 reality set in. Hasn't broken lower because traders don't want to be short going into a confirmed launch window. Plenty of room to fall toward the actual NO probability if the rocket scrubs once.

 ===================== PICK 2 ===================== 

### BUY NO KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457 · Cava reports >457 restaurants in Q1 FY2026

Limit:NO at $0.21 (= sell YES at $0.79)
Best live quote:YES 0.75 bid / 0.79 ask  →  NO 0.21 bid / 0.25 ask
My true probability:P(Q1 restaurant count > 457) ≈ 50%  →  P(NO) ≈ 50%
Edge:+29¢ per NO contract  ·  +138% EV at fill

#### Mispricing thesis

The three adjacent strikes in this event imply the market is concentrated on **Q1 2026 = 458 restaurants exactly** — >457 YES at 78%, >458 YES at 26%, >460 YES at 8%. That gives an implied P(Q1 = 458) ≈ 52%, with only ~22% mass at ≤457. Cava has not yet reported — earnings are **May 19** — and the historical Q1 opening cadence does not justify this much certainty.

#### Evidence

- Cava ended **FY2025 at 439 restaurants** (+72 net new for the year), per the Q4 release on 24 Feb 2026.
- FY2026 guidance: **74–76 net new for the full year**, in line with FY2025's 72.
- Q1 is a 16-week quarter and historically the _slowest_ opening quarter: Q1 FY2025 added 15 stores (367 → 382), and Q1 FY2024 ~14. Q4 FY2025 was the outlier at +24 in 12 weeks because of year-end pushes.
- A 15–20 store Q1 (consistent with prior years and FY2026 guide-rate) puts the count at **454–459**, with the mode near 456–457. Crossing >457 requires Q1 to come in at the upper end of the historical range — by no means certain.

#### Tail risks

- FY26 opening cadence may be front-loaded vs. prior years given the Q4 2025 acceleration to +24/quarter pace. If management is shifting builds earlier, >457 is the right base case.
- This strike only opened ~24 hours ago. Initial liquidity may be uninformed; the price could reset closer to my view organically (good for me) or to a confident YES if insider/whisper info I don't have surfaces in the next 6 days.

#### Liquidity & execution

OI 12k, decent depth on the NO side (~400 contracts at 0.14, 450 at 0.15, 840 at 0.17). Limit BUY NO at $0.20 should fill at least partially overnight; walk up to $0.23 average. Size **$2,000**.

#### Price history

Strike opened 5/12 at 31/69 wide quote, settled today at 75/79 on the back of 14.7k volume — but most of that volume looks like a single block accumulating YES exposure to read a 458 print. The adjacent >460 strike crashed 50% → 14% on 5/7 on 25k volume, which tells me the market took out the right tail aggressively — but did not necessarily nail the center.

 ===================== PICK 3 ===================== 

### BUY YES KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12 · SpaceX has >12 launches in May 2026

Limit:YES at $0.48
Best live quote:YES 0.47 bid / 0.48 ask
My true probability:P(launch count ≥ 13) ≈ 60%
Edge:+12¢ per YES contract  ·  +25% EV at fill

#### Mispricing thesis

Through May 12 SpaceX has flown 56 Falcon-family vehicles in 2026 (Wikipedia / Spaceflight Now). YTD through April was 52, so May-to-date is **4 launches in 12 days**. The market has extrapolated the slow first half to a ~10–11 monthly total and priced >12 at 47% YES. The published launch schedule says otherwise.

#### Evidence

- **4 confirmed launches by 5/13:** Starlink (Cape, 5/1) · Starlink (Vandenberg, 5/5) · NROL-172 (Vandenberg, 5/11) · CRS-34 to ISS (Cape, 5/13 evening per Spaceflight Now schedule).
- **5 more scheduled by 5/22:** Starlink 17-37 (5/15) · Globalstar 2-R (5/18) · Starlink 17-42 (5/18–19) · Starship Flight 12 (5/19) · Starlink 10-31 (5/22).
- That's **9 launches by May 22**. The remaining 9 days (5/23–5/31) at SpaceX's typical 2.5–3.5 launches/week pace yields a further 3–5 launches.
- Center estimate: **12–14 total May launches**. Floor ~11 (heavy scrub run), ceiling ~16.
- Rules cite FAA data, which counts _all_ SpaceX launches — including Starship Flight 12 if it goes. Even excluding Starship the F9-only count likely lands at 12–13.

#### Tail risks

- A weather-stricken second half or a stand-down following a Starship anomaly could compress Falcon cadence.
- If the Kalshi resolution methodology excludes Starship (rules cite FAA generically), >12 needs F9 alone — still plausible but the edge shrinks.

#### Liquidity & execution

OI 20.7k, tight 1¢ spread. Place limit BUY YES at $0.47, willing to lift to $0.49. Size **$2,000**.

 ===================== PICK 4 ===================== 

### BUY YES KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13 · SpaceX has >13 launches in May 2026

Limit:YES at $0.13
Best live quote:YES 0.12 bid / 0.13 ask
My true probability:P(launch count ≥ 14) ≈ 28%
Edge:+15¢ per YES contract  ·  +115% EV at fill

#### Mispricing thesis

Mirror of Pick 3. If my May-total distribution puts mass at 12–14 launches with a meaningful right tail, then >13 (i.e. ≥14) is a 25–35% event, not a 12% event. Same Spaceflight Now / Wikipedia schedule and FAA cadence data underlie both calls.

#### Position rationale

I am buying both >12 and >13 because they hedge nicely: if total = 13 exactly, the >13 ticket loses but >12 wins; if total = 14+, both win. The >13 ticket is the right-tail call at 13¢, where I'm risking $0.13 to make $0.87 if SpaceX matches the kind of week-three sprint we saw in March (5 launches in 8 days).

#### Liquidity & execution

OI 41.4k, tight 1¢. Limit YES at $0.12. Size **$1,000**.

#### Tail risks

If a Starship anomaly or vehicle stand-down lands in the next 18 days, Falcon throughput drops and 14+ becomes very hard. The recent price drift from 60% → 12% on this strike does suggest the market is fading the right tail aggressively.

 ===================== PICK 5 ===================== 

### BUY YES KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150000000.0 · Costco reports >150M cardholders in Q3 FY2026

Limit:YES at $0.17
Best live quote:YES 0.16 bid / 0.17 ask
My true probability:P(Q3 cardholder count > 150M) ≈ 30%
Edge:+13¢ per YES contract  ·  +76% EV at fill

#### Mispricing thesis

Costco's cardholder count grows ~1.7–2.1M per quarter. The trajectory through FY2026 is on a knife-edge with 150M:

| Period | Cardholders | Δ vs prior Q |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 (end Nov 2025) | 145.9M | — |
| Q2 FY26 (end Feb 2026) | 147.8M | +1.9M |
| Q3 FY26 (end May 2026, reported late May) | ? | consensus ~+1.7M → ~149.5M |

At trend that's 149.5M, just under threshold. **But** April retail-month sales (4 weeks ending 5/3) printed **+13.0% net / +11.6% comp** — among the strongest comp months in two years, with Q2's +13.6% membership-fee growth still trending. A +2.1–2.4M cardholder quarter would clear 150M cleanly.

#### Evidence

- Q2 FY26 release (3/6/2026): 147.8M total cardholders, $1.36B membership-fee income +13.6% YoY.
- April 2026 sales release (5/7/2026): $23.92B (+13.0%), comps +11.7% US / +11.5% Canada & Int'l.
- Costco reports Q3 FY26 around **May 28–29 after market close**; this market closes 6/27.

#### Tail risks (real, not theoretical)

- The market **crashed from 35% to 11%** on 5/10 on ~5k volume — clear informed-flow signal. I do not know what they know. The April sales release (which I checked directly) does _not_ mention cardholders, so the drop is not from a hard data point I can access. I'm sized smaller as a result.
- "Above 150M" is structured as a strict-greater-than; 150,000,000 exactly = NO. With my distribution centered at 149.7M, this is a coin-flip even on the optimistic tail.

#### Liquidity & execution

OI 15.4k, tight 1¢ spread, ~7k contracts resting at 0.16. Limit BUY YES at $0.16, walk to $0.17. Size **$1,750**.

 ===================== PICK 6 ===================== 

### BUY YES KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122000000 · Klarna reports >122M active consumers in Q1 2026

Limit:YES at $0.18
Best live quote:YES 0.17 bid / 0.18 ask
My true probability:P(Q1 consumers > 122M) ≈ 25%
Edge:+7¢ per YES contract  ·  +39% EV at fill

#### Mispricing thesis

Klarna reports Q1 2026 **tomorrow, 14 May, before market open** — the market closes 5/15. Quarterly consumer adds have been accelerating with US growth: 111M (Q2 2025) → 114M (Q3) → 118M (Q4). Extrapolating the +3–4M/quarter ramp puts Q1 2026 at 121–122M, with a real chance of overshoot given the US card / banking-services momentum the company called out in the Q4 release.

#### Why this is sized small

The >122M strike **crashed from 39% to 17% during today's session** on 2k volume. That is consistent with someone reading a leaked or whispered number, or simply with a re-pricing as the report gets closer. Either way I do not have the same information edge as I do on Cava or Starship. I take a small position to express the view that even ~25% probability is meaningfully above 18% market price.

#### Liquidity & execution

OI 4.4k, tight 1¢ spread. Place limit at $0.17. Size **$750**.

#### Hedge

The adjacent >120M strike at 79–82% YES is roughly fair on my model (I have P(>120M) ≈ 75%). If I wanted to fade the same information, that's where I'd short — but the edge is <5¢ so it isn't worth a separate ticket.

## 4. Recommended $10,000 portfolio

| # | Ticker | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max payout | P(win) | EV ¢ | EV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19 | NO | 0.36 | 4,170 | $1,500 | $4,170 | 55% | +19 | +53% |
| 2 | KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457 | NO | 0.21 | 9,520 | $2,000 | $9,520 | 50% | +29 | +138% |
| 3 | KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12 | YES | 0.48 | 4,170 | $2,000 | $4,170 | 60% | +12 | +25% |
| 4 | KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13 | YES | 0.13 | 7,690 | $1,000 | $7,690 | 28% | +15 | +115% |
| 5 | KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150M | YES | 0.17 | 10,300 | $1,750 | $10,300 | 30% | +13 | +76% |
| 6 | KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122M | YES | 0.18 | 4,170 | $750 | $4,170 | 25% | +7 | +39% |
| **Deployed** | **$9,000** | **$40,020** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| **Reserve (opportunistic adds)** | **$1,000** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

### Expected return

- **Blended expected EV** (sum of per-ticket EVs at limit fill): ≈ $4,160, i.e. **+46% on deployed capital**. This is high because the edges are unusually wide on the two BUY-NO picks; treat it as an upper bound for if every probability estimate is exactly right.
- **Realistic haircut.** Halving every edge (a healthy correction for model error and execution slippage) still produces ≈ $2,080 / **+23%**.
- **Worst plausible case.** All six tickets resolve against me: lose −$9,000. Probability ≈ Π(losing probabilities) ≈ 45% · 50% · 40% · 72% · 70% · 75% ≈ **3.4%**. The independence assumption is shaky (Starship-12 and SpaceX-count are correlated; Cava and Klarna are independent), but as a rough floor: ~1-in-30 lose-everything scenarios.
- **Best case.** All six win: +$31,020 net. Probability ≈ 55% · 50% · 60% · 28% · 30% · 25% ≈ **0.4%**. Real upside is from any 4-of-6, which is the modal good outcome.

### Risk profile & concentration

- **Single-thesis concentration:** two picks (3 and 4) ride the same SpaceX-May-cadence thesis. If May's second half slows materially (Starship anomaly, weather), both lose. Combined exposure $3,000 = 30% of deployed.
- **Earnings-print concentration:** picks 2, 5, 6 are all earnings-release reads. They're uncorrelated company-by-company, but all three settle in the next 6–18 days, so the portfolio's variance compresses by 5/30.
- **Single-event tail:** Pick 1 is the cleanest binary — one launch attempt, one date. Largest single-ticket loss potential ($1,500 if Starship hits its NET).

### Execution notes

- Place all orders as **limit**, not market. Two of the picks (Cava-457, Starship-19) have wide spreads — leaving an order in the book and letting it get hit at the limit price is materially cheaper than crossing.
- **Cancel triggers:** if Starship-12 begins fueling on 5/19 evening with no scrub indication, kill the unfilled portion of the BUY NO and accept partial fill. If Cava pre-announces (rare but possible), cancel the Cava NO.
- **Add triggers (use the $1,000 reserve):**

- If KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19 trades through 0.70 YES (i.e. NO < 0.30) on a quiet day, add up to $300 to Pick 1.
- If KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457 trades to 0.85+ YES on thin volume, add up to $500 to Pick 2.
- Reserve final $200 for an in-day reaction to the Klarna release (5/14) if a fade or jump opens any of the consumer strikes more than 10¢ from my fair value.
- **Invalidations**:
    
- Pick 1 invalidated by: SpaceX successful launch attempt 5/15–5/19.
- Pick 2 invalidated by: Cava 8-K pre-announcement showing ≥458 stores.
- Picks 3+4 invalidated by: a Falcon stand-down (post-launch anomaly) before 5/31.
- Pick 5 invalidated by: a Costco preliminary disclosure or a fresh, large NO trade on a price below 0.10 (signals a leak below my prior).
- Pick 6 invalidated by: Klarna 5/14 release printing <120M consumers.

## 5. What I rejected and why

KXPM-26APRZYNSHIP-190M — REJECT, already finalized

The local DB still flags this market `active`. The live API says `status:"finalized", result:"no"` as of 22 April 2026. Philip Morris reported ZYN US _shipment_ volume of 155M cans for Q1 2026 (vs ~175M offtake) on 4/22; the market closed at 1¢. Surfacing this is the audit's main reminder to never trust the local DB's status alone.

KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY31 — PASS, price right

YES 93/94, P(launch by 5/31) ≈ 90–93%. Even with V3 vehicle / Pad 2 risk, a 12-day buffer past NET captures essentially the entire scrub-and-retry distribution. Edge ≤2¢, not worth crossing 1¢ spread for.

KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-10 — PASS, price right

YES 93/94. With ≥9 launches already locked in by 5/22, hitting 11 by 5/31 is a near-certainty (~95–97%). Edge ~3¢ at fill, not enough for the capital cost.

KXCAVA-26MAYREST-460 — PASS, market correctly skeptical of right tail

YES 8/9. My model puts P(Q1 ≥ 461) ≈ 5–8%. Price is right; no edge.

KXCAVA-26MAYREST-458 — WATCH, modest YES edge but bigger sister trade in pick #2

YES 26/27. My P(Q1 ≥ 459) ≈ 31%, so a small (+4¢) YES edge exists. The reason I don't take it: the BUY NO on the >457 strike (Pick 2) expresses the same view on the joint distribution with a much larger edge, so doubling up on adjacent strikes adds correlation without adding meaningful new alpha. If Pick 2 fills early at a great price, I might add a small >458 YES with the reserve.

KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-120M — PASS, market roughly fair

YES 79/82. My P(Q1 > 120M) ≈ 75%. With 3¢ spread, edge is sub-2¢ net of slippage. Not enough.

KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-118M — PASS, fully priced

YES 98/99 with Klarna already publicly claiming "over 118M" users in marketing materials. Essentially resolved already; 1¢ left isn't worth the capital.

KXLOW-26MAYTRAN-204M / KXLOW-26MAYTRAN-195M — PASS, info-limited

Lowe's Q1 reports 5/20. Management telegraphed Q1 comps "below midpoint" of full-year guide due to February winter storms. Range of likely Q1 transactions is ~190–202M; the strikes at 195 and 204 are placed exactly to bracket the consensus. 70% YES on >195 and 5% YES on >204 both look about right; my edges are within the spread. Skip.

KXOMEGA-MAY-5534 — PASS, opaque

Bezel Omega Index resolves on a single 3rd-party-published price as of 5/31. The index methodology, current level, and constituent watches are not easily verifiable from primary sources within the audit window. With OI 1.4k and ~50% pricing, there is no way to claim a defensible edge.

~110 strikes never crossed Stage 1 (FX, intraday S&P/Nasdaq ranges)

The Companies + Financials category in the DB is dominated by `KXUSDJPY`, `KXEURUSD`, `KXNASDAQ100`, `KXTNOTEW`, and `KXINX` grids — hourly or daily strike-range markets. These aren't business-mispricing opportunities; they're short-window microstructure plays where any edge would be eaten by the spread. Filtered out at Stage 1.

## 6. Sources

All numbers in this report trace to one of these primary sources or to the local Kalshi snapshot DB.

#### Kalshi (market data)

- [Live market data — KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY19)
- [Live market data — KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXCAVA-26MAYREST-457)
- [Live market data — KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12)
- [Live market data — KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13)
- [Live market data — KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150M](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-150000000.0)
- [Live market data — KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122M](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXKLAR-26MAYCONS-122000000)

#### SpaceX / Starship Flight 12

- [Wikipedia — Starship flight test 12 (NET May 19, V3 first flight, B19/S39, Pad 2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_12)
- [RocketLaunch.Live — Starship Flight 12 schedule](https://www.rocketlaunch.live/launch/starship-flight-12)
- [Tesla Oracle — SpaceX announces Flight 12 launch date (5/13/2026)](https://www.teslaoracle.com/2026/05/13/spacex-announces-starships-flight-12-launch-date/)

#### SpaceX May 2026 launch cadence

- [Wikipedia — List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches (YTD counts)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
- [RocketLaunch.org — SpaceX schedule (5/15 Starlink 17-37, 5/18 Globalstar, 5/19 Starlink 17-42, 5/19 Starship 12, 5/22 Starlink 10-31)](https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule/spacex)
- [Spaceflight Now — launch schedule (CRS-34 confirmed 5/13)](https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/)
- [Spaceflight Now — NROL-172 launch coverage (5/11/2026)](https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/05/11/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-intelligence-gathering-satellites-for-the-national-reconnaissance-office/)
- [Spaceflight Now — Starlink launch from Cape Canaveral (5/1/2026)](https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/05/01/live-coverage-spacex-marks-may-day-with-starlink-mission-on-a-falcon-9-rocket-from-cape-canaveral/)
- [Spaceflight Now — Starlink launch from Vandenberg (5/5/2026)](https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/05/05/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-24-starlink-satellites-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-vandenberg-sfb-7/)

#### Cava Group

- [Cava IR — Q4 / FY2025 release (439 restaurants, 72 net new in FY25, FY26 guide 74–76)](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2026/CAVA-Group-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2025-Results/default.aspx)
- [Cava Q2 2025 release — 398 restaurants, +16 net new](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250812501347/en/CAVA-Group-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results)
- [Cava Q3 2025 release — 415 restaurants, +17 net new](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2025/CAVA-Group-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx)
- [Cava Q1 2025 release — 382 restaurants, +15 net new (the comparable Q1 cadence)](https://investor.cava.com/news/news-details/2025/CAVA-Group-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx)
- [MarketBeat — Cava Q1 2026 earnings date (5/19/2026)](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CAVA/earnings/)

#### Costco

- [Costco IR — Q2 FY2026 release (147.8M cardholders, $1.36B membership fees +13.6%)](https://investor.costco.com/news/news-details/2026/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-and-Year-to-Date-Operating-Results-for-Fiscal-2026-and-February-Sales-Results/default.aspx)
- [Costco IR — April 2026 sales release (4 weeks ending 5/3, $23.92B, +13.0%)](https://investor.costco.com/news/news-details/2026/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Reports-April-Sales-Results/default.aspx)
- [Costco Q1 FY2026 release (145.9M cardholders)](https://investor.costco.com/news/news-details/2025/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026-Operating-Results/default.aspx)

#### Klarna

- [Klarna IR — Q1 2026 release scheduled 5/14/2026 pre-market](https://investors.klarna.com/News--Events/news/news-details/2026/Klarna-to-Publish-Q1-2026-Earnings-on-May-14-2026/default.aspx)
- [Klarna Q4 2025 release — 118M active consumers, $1.082B revenue +38%](https://investors.klarna.com/News--Events/news/news-details/2026/Klarna-Accelerates-U-S--Growth-and-Delivers-1bn-Revenue-Driven-by-Rapid-Banking-Service-Adoption/default.aspx)
- [Klarna Q3 2025 release — 114M active consumers](https://s205.q4cdn.com/644747736/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/Q3-25-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf)

#### Philip Morris (for the rejected ZYN market)

- [Philip Morris Q1 2026 release — ZYN US shipment 155M cans (–23.5%)](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260421778089/en/Philip-Morris-International-Reports-2026-First-Quarter-Results-and-Updates-2026-Full-Year-Adjusted-Diluted-EPS-Forecast-for-Currency-Only)

Data sources: Kalshi public REST API (`api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2`) for live quotes and orderbooks; local Kalshi snapshot DB (`/tmp/bot.db`, last refreshed during this audit) for price history and 24h volume; company investor-relations pages and major news outlets for KPI grounding. Probability estimates in this report are subjective and reflect my best interpretation of public information at 13 May 2026. Kalshi contracts that resolve against the holder pay $0.00; the maximum loss per pick equals the capital cost shown. This audit is not investment advice; sizes are illustrative and ignore taxes, fees, and broker withdrawal frictions.