# Kalshi Science and Technology — Mispricing Audit (19 Jun 2026)

Date: 2026-06-19
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-06-19-kalshi-science-and-technology-mispricing-audit

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# Kalshi Science & Technology — Mispricing Audit

Report date 2026-06-19 · horizon 45 days · portfolio capital $1,000 · category Science and Technology

Final picks: **2** (both on one underlying — SpaceX's June launch count). The category is thin this week; I am not padding.

One-line thesis. SpaceX has flown 9 Falcon 9 missions in the first 19 days of June 2026 (~0.47–0.56/day) and has ≥4 more already manifested for June 20–30. The Kalshi launch-count ladder prices “exactly 14” at ≈69% and assigns only ≈8.5% to ≥16 and ≈3.5% to ≥17. That upper tail is too thin given the demonstrated cadence. Today's rally already re-priced the safe rungs (>12, >13), so the remaining edge sits in the cheap, un-moved tail: KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15 and -16 YES.

## 1 · How this was researched

- **Universe.** Pulled all active markets in trading_events.category = "Science and Technology" closing within 45 days via the read-only DB mirror — **220 markets** across ~25 series (AI-model leaderboards, GPU compute-price ladders, FDA approvals, nuclear criticality, Ebola/alien novelty markets, SpaceX/Blue Origin launches).
- **Liquidity screen.** Joined each ticker to its most-recent market_snapshots row and cut anything with volume24h < 1,500, bid-ask spread > 5¢, already fully priced (YES bid ≥ 95¢ / ask ≤ 5¢), or "what will X say"-style noise. Most of the 220 died here — the category is dominated by 1-cent leaderboard longshots and 0-volume GPU/biotech ladders.
- **Exclusions.** Dropped every ticker already live in the feed from prior runs (KXAISPIKE-*, KXFRONTIER-*, KXGROK-*, KXLLM1-26JUN30-A, KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14, KXCLAUDE-MYTH-*, KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-*, etc.) so nothing here duplicates an existing pick.
- **Diligence.** For survivors: pulled full rules + rules_secondary (resolution source) from the DB and Kalshi's public API, 14-day intraday price history, live order-book depth, and primary-source news. The launch-count thesis was built off the canonical [Wikipedia April–June 2026 spaceflight list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_April%E2%80%93June_2026) (citing nextspaceflight.com) and [Spaceflight Now](https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/).
- **Resolution source check.** KXSPACEXCOUNT resolves on **FAA source-agency launch data** (per rules_secondary) — i.e. FAA-licensed SpaceX launches. In June 2026 that is effectively the Falcon 9 manifest; Starship is grounded pending the Flight-12 mishap review and contributes nothing.

## 2 · Markets reviewed

| Ticker | Question (resolves) | YES bid/ask | vol24h | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15 | >15 SpaceX launches in June (≥16) | 8 / 9 | 7,080 | BUY YES — Pick 1 |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16 | >16 SpaceX launches in June (≥17) | 3 / 4 | 3,100 | BUY YES — Pick 2 |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-12 | >12 launches (≥13) | 92 / 93 | 2,116 | PASS — fairly priced after rally |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13 | >13 launches (≥14) | 81 / 84 | 3,425 | PASS — edge eaten (+12¢ today) |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14 | >14 launches (≥15) | 13 / 14 | 6,970 | EXCLUDED — already a live pick |
| KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN26 | OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 before Jun 26 | 64 / 70 | 8,308 | PASS — rumor whipsaw, no edge |
| KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-VALAR | Valar Atomics reaches criticality before Aug 1 | 93 / 97 | 4,601 | PASS — moved 75→97 in 48h |
| KXNEWGLENN-262-JUL / -AUG | New Glenn launches before Jul / Aug | ~1 / ~3 | 1,825 | PASS — priced to floor |
| KXFDAAPPROVE-* / KXCRITICALITY-* | FDA approvals; other nuclear startups | — | ~0 | PASS — illiquid (vol24h≈0) |

YES bid/ask are live top-of-book from Kalshi's public API at ~15:30 UTC on 2026-06-19; vol24h from the DB mirror's latest snapshot. The full 220-market universe is dominated by sub-1,500-volume leaderboard/compute-price ladders that never reach this table.

## 3 · The picks

Read this before the picks. Both picks express the same view — that the market's "exactly 14 launches" consensus under-weights SpaceX's habit of adding un-manifested Starlink flights late in the month. They are positively correlated and both resolve to zero in the modal (≤14-launch) world. Size them as one high-variance tail position, not two independent bets. Conviction reflects how defensible each edge is — the resolution is clean and countable, but the edge rests on a cadence model that disagrees with a liquid market, so neither earns HIGH.

 PICK 1 

### Pick 1 — KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15 · BUY YES @ 0.11 limit · MEDIUM CONVICTION

“More than 15 SpaceX launches in June 2026” (i.e. ≥16). Live YES 8 / 9¢ · last 8¢ · closes 2026-07-01 14:00Z (expected resolution 2026-06-30).

Current ask **9¢**My true prob **≈21%**Edge at 11¢ fill **≈+10¢**EV **≈+91%**Launches needed **7 more in 11 days**

**Mispricing thesis.** SpaceX has flown 9 Falcon 9 missions through June 19 (June 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19). Reaching 16 needs 7 more launches in the 11 remaining days — a rate of 0.64/day. That is above their sustained average, so it is genuinely a tail. But the market prices it at only **8.5%**, which is hard to square with a June run-rate of 0.47–0.56/day and a back-third of the month that is exactly when SpaceX clears its Starlink backlog. A defensible Poisson on the honest full-June rate (λ≈5.2 additional) puts ≥16 at ≈27%; I haircut that to **~21%** for schedule-capping/under-dispersion. Even the haircut leaves the 9¢ ask more than double-cheap.

**Evidence (cited below).**

- **9 launches, June 1–19**, each confirmed as Falcon 9 Block 5 in the [Wikipedia April–June 2026 launch list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_April%E2%80%93June_2026) (sourced to nextspaceflight.com): Starlink 17-47, 10-43, 17-47, 10-43, 17-44, a 12 Jun Starlink, 17-54, BlueBird 8–10, and NROL-179 (19 Jun, 08:40 UTC — already flown).
- **≥4 more already manifested** for the remaining window: two Falcon 9s on June 21 (incl. Starlink 17-28), Starlink 17-45 on June 25, and Globalstar 2-R Mission 1 (June, TBD). A named manifest 11 days out is a _floor_ — SpaceX routinely adds Starlink flights inside a week's notice.
- **Fleet is healthy.** No Falcon 9 grounding is in effect; the only active SpaceX stand-down is _Starship_ (Flight 12 mishap, 22 May 2026), which does not touch the Falcon 9 line that drives this count ([Spaceflight Now, 27 May 2026](https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/05/27/faa-requires-spacex-led-mishap-investigation-before-resumption-of-starship-launches/)).
- **The market itself rallied the lower rungs today** — >13 jumped 69→84¢ on the NROL-179 launch — yet left >15 and >16 untouched, leaving an internally inconsistent kink (P(=14)≈69%, then a cliff).

**Tail risk (the cleanest single thing that loses).** A Falcon 9 anomaly / FAA stand-down anytime in the next 11 days — SpaceX was grounded three separate times across 2024–25 — would cap the count near 13–14 and send this to zero. Secondary: a quiet Eastern-Range / pad lull into the July-4 weekend, or Globalstar slipping to July, leaving them short of 16.

Limit **0.11**Size **600 contracts**Cost **≈$66**Max payout **$600**EV **≈+$60**

**Liquidity / history:** YES-ask depth is thin — ≈148 contracts at 9¢ and ≈500 more at 11¢, so a 600-contract fill at an 11¢ limit stays inside the 3¢-slippage rule but cannot scale much further. Price has held a tight 4–10¢ band for 14 days on heavy volume (vol24h 7,080), i.e. the tail has _not_ moved on today's launch news.

 PICK 2 

### Pick 2 — KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16 · BUY YES @ 0.06 limit · LOW CONVICTION

“More than 16 SpaceX launches in June 2026” (i.e. ≥17). Live YES 3 / 4¢ · last 4¢ · closes 2026-07-01 14:00Z.

Current ask **4¢**My true prob **≈12%**Edge at 6¢ fill **≈+6¢**EV **≈+100%**Launches needed **8 more in 11 days**

**Mispricing thesis.** The deeper-tail extension of Pick 1: ≥17 launches needs 8 more in 11 days (0.73/day). A genuine longshot, but the market's **3.5%** is well below a Poisson read (≈16% on the honest rate) and my conservative **~12%**. The same un-manifested-Starlink argument applies, just one launch further out. I keep this small and call it LOW conviction precisely because it leans hardest on the cadence model rather than on the named manifest.

**Evidence.** Same launch log and manifest as Pick 1. The contract has the _deepest_ book in the ladder (~5,000 YES contracts available within 3¢ of best), which is why it can carry more dollars than the thinner >15 rung despite lower conviction.

**Tail risk.** Identical to Pick 1 but with less margin: any single missed launch (anomaly, weather stand-down, range conflict, Globalstar slip) is enough to keep the count under 17. This is the first to die in any slowdown.

Limit **0.06**Size **2,000 contracts**Cost **≈$120**Max payout **$2,000**EV **≈+$120**

**Liquidity / history:** ≈970 contracts at 4¢, ≈560 at 5¢, ≈1,900 at 6¢ — a 2,000-contract fill blends to ~5–6¢ well inside the slippage rule. Price has sat at 1–4¢ for two weeks (vol24h 3,100); unmoved by today's lower-rung rally.

## 4 · Recommended $1,000 portfolio

This is a **capacity-constrained** deployment. The only genuinely mispriced contracts in the category are these two thin tails; pushing more capital in means paying through the edge (>3¢ slippage), which the screen forbids. So the bulk of the book stays in cash _by necessity, not by choice_ — see execution notes.

| Pick | Side | Limit | Contracts | Cost | Max payout | True P | EV $ | EV % | Conv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15 | YES | 0.11 | 600 | $66 | $600 | 21% | +$60 | +91% | MED |
| KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16 | YES | 0.06 | 2,000 | $120 | $2,000 | 12% | +$120 | +100% | LOW |
| **Deployed** |  |  | 2,600 | **$186** | **$2,600** |  | **+$180** | **+97%** |  |
| **Cash reserve** |  |  |  | **$814** |  |  |  |  |  |

### Risk profile

- **Worst case (most-likely):** SpaceX finishes June with ≤15 launches → both picks resolve NO → lose the full **$186** deployed (1.9% of capital). The market's modal outcome (exactly 14) lives here, so expect to lose the stake more often than not.
- **Middle:** exactly 16 launches → Pick 1 pays $600, Pick 2 expires worthless → +$534 net on the book.
- **Best case:** ≥17 launches → both pay → **$2,600** gross, +$2,414 net (≈13× the stake).
- **Concentration:** 100% of deployed risk is a single underlying thesis — SpaceX's June Falcon 9 cadence. There is no diversifying second thesis in this category that survives the liquidity screen. The cash reserve _is_ the risk control.

### Execution notes

- **Limit orders only.** Post 600 @ 0.11 on -15 and 2,000 @ 0.06 on -16; do not chase. If -15 won't fill below 12¢, shrink it rather than pay up — the depth gap above 11¢ is real.
- **Reserve ($814) is opportunistic, not idle.** Two triggers to deploy it: (1) a _second_ launch in any 48-hour stretch before June 30 (back-to-back days) re-rates the whole tail — add to -15/-16 on the move; (2) if -15 ever dips back to ≤6¢ on no news, scale in toward the depth cap.
- **Watchlist (no capital today):** -13 (>13) — revisit only if it falls back under 72¢; -12 (>12) as a near-riskless park if it ever offers >4¢ over fair.
- **Hard invalidation — close both immediately if any of:** an FAA Falcon 9 stand-down / mishap is announced; SpaceX has <3 launches between June 20–26 (cadence broke); or the count is mathematically capped (e.g., 13 flown by June 27 with no manifest left).
- **No hedge taken.** The natural hedge (the existing >14 YES pick already in the feed) is the lower rung of this same ladder and is _not_ re-bought here.

## 5 · What I rejected and why

- **KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14 (>14 / ≥15) — excluded to avoid a duplicate.** This is already an active pick in the feed at 13/14¢. On my numbers it is the _most_ under-priced rung of all (true P(≥15)≈33% vs market 13.5%), which corroborates this whole thesis — but re-emitting it would duplicate a live pick, so it stays out of the numbered list and out of picks.json.
- **KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13 (>13) — edge eaten.** Sat at 69¢ at noon; rallied to 81/84¢ this afternoon on the NROL-179 launch. At 84¢ vs my ≈78–80% true, it is now fair-to-rich. Classic "the price already moved on the thesis in the last 48h."
- **KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-12 (>12) — fairly priced.** True P(≥13)≈93–95%; ask 93¢ leaves ≈1¢, below the fee/slippage floor. A safe park, not an edge.
- **KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN26 (GPT-5.6 before Jun 26) — no defensible edge.** Whipsawed 82→31→73→64¢ in 48h on an unconfirmed release rumor; OpenAI has published no GPT-5.6 announcement (last confirmed model is GPT-5.5, 23 Apr 2026). Pure release-timing speculation with no public-information edge, and the price is unstable — exactly what the screen is meant to skip.
- **KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-VALAR — edge already realised.** Ran from ~75¢ to 93/97¢ over the last 48 hours on (apparent) Valar Atomics progress news. Buying YES at a 97¢ ask leaves ≤3¢ of room for a 6-week binary on a startup reactor — the move happened without me.
- **KXNEWGLENN-262-JUL / -AUG — priced to the floor.** ~1¢ (July) and 1/3¢ (Aug); the market already treats a near-term New Glenn flight as a near-certain NO and I found no scheduled launch to argue otherwise. Nothing to add.
- **FDA-approval ladder, other nuclear-criticality legs, GPU compute-price ladders, AI leaderboard longshots — illiquid.** Almost all carry vol24h ≈ 0 and 10–90¢ spreads (e.g. the H100/H200/B200/A100 "compute price above $X" rungs, KXFDAAPPROVE-*, KXCRITICALITY-* minor legs). Even where a price looks off, you cannot size without paying double-digit cents of slippage. Watchlist at best.
- **Everything already in the feed** (KXAISPIKE-*, KXFRONTIER-FRON-*, KXGROK-GROK5-*, KXLLM1-26JUN30-A, KXCLAUDE-MYTH-*, KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-*, KXCODEAI-*) — excluded up front to avoid duplicate feed entries.

## 6 · Sources

- [Wikipedia — List of spaceflight launches, April–June 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_April%E2%80%93June_2026) (canonical June launch table; cites nextspaceflight.com for each flight) — used for the 9-launch count and the remaining-June manifest.
- [Wikipedia — List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches) (2026 year-to-date cadence cross-check).
- [Spaceflight Now — Launch Schedule](https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/) (June 21 / 23 / 25 upcoming SpaceX missions; NRO and BlueBird recent launches).
- [Spaceflight Now — FAA requires mishap investigation before Starship resumes (27 May 2026)](https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/05/27/faa-requires-spacex-led-mishap-investigation-before-resumption-of-starship-launches/) (confirms the stand-down is Starship, not Falcon 9).
- [OpenAI — Introducing GPT-5.5 (23 Apr 2026)](https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/) (last confirmed model; basis for rejecting the GPT-5.6 timing market).
- Kalshi public trade API — /markets/{ticker} and /markets/{ticker}/orderbook (live top-of-book and depth, ~15:30 UTC 2026-06-19). Resolution text and rules_secondary ("FAA source agency data") from the same endpoint.
- Kalshi DB mirror (trading_markets / trading_events / market_snapshots) — 220-market universe, liquidity screen, and 14-day intraday price history.

**Data sources:** Kalshi public API + a read-only Kalshi DB mirror, plus the public web sources hyperlinked above. **Disclaimer:** all probabilities here are my own subjective estimates, not Kalshi's, and the launch-tail picks in particular rest on a cadence model that a liquid market currently disagrees with — treat the conviction labels literally. Each contract resolves to either $1.00 or $0.00; a losing prediction-market contract goes to **zero**. This is research, not investment advice. Position sizes assume the stated limit fills; verify live depth before trading.