# Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit (v4, archetype-targeted) — 2026-08-11

Date: 2026-08-11
Source: https://kalshi-audits.pages.dev/2026-08-11-kalshi-ai-mispricing-audit-v4

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# Kalshi AI — Mispricing Audit Keel v4

Run date 2026-08-11 · Horizon 45 days (through 2026-09-25) · Capital $2,500 · Category focus: AI (advisory) · Universe: targets.json allowlist, 117 series

0Picks
42Rejects logged
$0Deployed
100%Cash ($2,500)
117Series swept

Verdict: stand down — cash is the position this week.
    Every one of the 42 in-horizon markets across the full v4 allowlist failed the Stage-0 mechanical
    cuts or the v4 entry bands. The slate is uniformly deep NO-favorites (YES asks ≤5¢) sitting in
    zero- or near-zero-volume books. There is no market where a probability was worth forming:
    the three books with real volume are efficiently priced tails, and the two structurally
    playable prices sit in dead books below the hard liquidity floor. Zero picks is the correct
    v4 output for this slate, not a failure to find edge — 98 of 136 historical picks entered
    zero-volume books and that cohort had negative edge; this run declines to repeat it.
  

## Why zero picks

The Stage-0 universe (allowlisted series with active markets closing by Sep 25) produced 42 markets:
  22 Tier-1 institutional-process legs (almost all "X out / bill becomes law before Sep 1"), 13 Tier-2
  legs (AI IPO dates, Tesla–SpaceX merger, US–Iran deal), and two central-bank decision slates
  (Bank of Canada Sep 2, Banxico Sep 24). Applying the hard cuts in order:

- **37 of 42 fail the liquidity floor** (live vol24h < 500; 30 of them traded literally zero contracts in 24h).
- **All 40 non-pick markets fail the price-structure or band cuts anyway**: YES ask ≤ 5¢ (tail / NO ≥ 95¢ deep favorite) on 35 of them; spread > 5¢ on 2; the rest priced ≥ 90¢ effective entry.
- **2 are existing picks** (KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01, KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01) — barred by the hard rule.

The AI-category Tier-1 series the run was pointed at — KXANTHROPICDOD (close 2028)
  and KXNYTOAI (close 2028) — have no legs inside the 45-day horizon and were not candidates.
  KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3 and the Oct-1 IPO legs close Oct 1, six days past the horizon cutoff, and were excluded mechanically.

## The three books with real volume — all efficient

| Market | YES bid/ask | Vol 24h | OI | Why it's not a pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 departure/ouster Alito retires before September? | 0.1¢ / 0.4¢ | 106,999 | 243,617 | Alito publicly confirmed on Aug 7 he is staying for another term (UPI, ABC News), after June's retracted NPR retirement-story error. The 107k volume is the book digesting that statement. YES is a <40¢-band tail; NO at ~99.6¢ is a deep-favorite band reject. |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP scheduled-process US–Iran deal before September? | 1¢ / 2¢ | 7,705 | 884,209 | NO at 98–99¢: max win ≤ 2% of capital at risk. The 94¢-lock memorial applies — deep-favorite band reject regardless of how safe the NO looks. Precedent store: Jun and Jul legs both resolved NO. |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 corporate-event Anthropic announces IPO before Sep 1? | 0¢ / 1¢ | 2,460 | 146,562 | Same structure: 1¢ tail / 99¢+ favorite. No playable side under v4 bands. Jun, Jul, and Aug legs all resolved NO (API-verified). |

## Near-misses worth recording

**Ken Martin (DNC chair) — KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01, YES 14/19¢.**
  The one market in the slate with a mid-band price. It opened Jul 28 near 69¢ YES at the peak of the
  autopsy-report/debt/phone-throwing scandal cycle and has decayed to 14¢ as congressional resignation
  calls failed to move DNC members — the body that actually controls his tenure (Axios, CNN, Jul 28).
  Buying NO at 86¢ would sit in the thin-favorite band, and the precedent (AUG01 leg resolved NO) supports it —
  but the book trades **1 contract per day** against a hard floor of 500, with 5 contracts visible at the bid.
  The depth cap (⅓ of visible book) would allow a ~$1.50 position. Liquidity-floor reject; the 69→14¢ move
  also trips the 48-hour price-move check. Logged so the shadow record can score it.

**Banxico HOLD — KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD, 93/94¢.**
  Tightest spread in the slate (1¢) and a scheduled-process archetype, but zero 24h volume and a 94¢ entry
  is a deep-favorite band reject (≥90¢). The precedent store holds 10 KXCBDECISIONCANADA rows —
  central-bank holds resolve mechanically, but 94¢ six weeks before the meeting pays 6¢ to carry six weeks of
  surprise risk.

## Full reject log (42)

Side/price shown where a side was structurally considered; Stage-0 mechanical rejects carry no model probability by design (no probability was formed on any market this run — no Stage-2 survivors).

| Market | Archetype | YES bid/ask | Vol 24h | OI | Reject reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0.1 / 0.4 | 106,999 | 243,617 | deep-favorite band / tail; Aug 7 "staying" statement fully priced |
| KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP | scheduled-process | 1 / 2 | 7,705 | 884,209 | deep-favorite band (NO 98–99¢) |
| KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0 / 1 | 2,460 | 146,562 | deep-favorite band / tail |
| KXLEAVEWALZ-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1 / 2 | 366 | 14,840 | liquidity floor (366 < 500); tail |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0 | scheduled-process | 97 / 98 | 127 | 2,336 | YES bid ≥ 95¢; liquidity floor |
| KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0 / 5 | 117 | 606 | liquidity floor; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| KXKASHOUT-26APR-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 4 / 5 | 104 | 13,663 | liquidity floor; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| KXIMPEACH-26-SEP01 | legal-action | 0 / 1 | 94 | 63,391 | liquidity floor; tail |
| KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 2 / 3 | 80 | 107,669 | liquidity floor; tail |
| KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01-SEP | departure/ouster | 2 / 8 | 23 | 3,065 | spread 6¢ > 5¢; liquidity floor |
| KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 14 / 19 | 1 | 1,455 | liquidity floor (vol24h=1); 48h price-move flag (69→14¢) |
| KXBURNHAMOUT-26JUL-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0 / 1 | 0 | 7,993 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 0 / 7 | 0 | 3,888 | zero-volume book; spread 7¢ > 5¢ |
| KXFARMBILL-26MAY-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 2 / 3 | 0 | 4,848 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXGALLEGOOUT-26APR-SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1 / 3 | 0 | 7,025 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-1 | confirmation/enact | 0 / 1 | 0 | 3,831 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-3 | confirmation/enact | 0 / 2 | 0 | 812 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXJUDGECOUNT-26AUG-4 | confirmation/enact | 0 / 1 | 0 | 7,880 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0 / 1 | 0 | 34,460 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXLEAVELISACOOK-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2 / 3 | 0 | 5,091 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 6 / 10 | 0 | 992 | zero-volume book; YES < 40¢ band / NO ≥ 90¢ band |
| KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 2 / 3 | 0 | 10,071 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01 | departure/ouster | 1 / 6 | 0 | 29,311 | zero-volume book |
| KXRECNCH-27-SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0 / 2 | 0 | 9,710 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JUL | confirmation/enact | 2 / 5 | 0 | 3,962 | zero-volume book; YES ask ≤ 5¢ |
| KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL-26SEP01 | confirmation/enact | 0 / 1 | 0 | 2,213 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0 / 1 | 0 | 148,956 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXIPOSTARLINK-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0 / 1 | 0 | 12,779 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01 | corporate-event | 0 / 3 | 0 | 256 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25 | scheduled-process | 0 / 4 | 0 | 333 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C26 | scheduled-process | 0 / 3 | 0 | 303 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 | scheduled-process | 0 / 4 | 0 | 1,582 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H26 | scheduled-process | 0 / 4 | 0 | 233 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-HOLD | scheduled-process | 93 / 94 | 0 | 5,286 | zero-volume book; deep-favorite band (≥90¢) |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C25 | scheduled-process | 3 / 4 | 0 | 3,685 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50 | scheduled-process | 0 / 2 | 0 | 4,644 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-C50P | scheduled-process | 0 / 2 | 0 | 4,645 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H25P | scheduled-process | 0 / 1 | 0 | 3,596 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50 | scheduled-process | 0 / 1 | 0 | 3,395 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26SEP24-H50P | scheduled-process | 0 / 1 | 0 | 3,395 | zero-volume book; tail |
| KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-SEP01 | multi-news-other | — | — | — | already an active pick |
| KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01 | multi-news-other | — | — | — | already an active pick |

## Portfolio

| Line | Cost | % of capital |
|---|---|---|
| Positions (0 picks, 0 clusters) | $0 | 0% |
| Cash | $2,500 | 100% |

Position-size, EV-for-the-record, cluster, and conviction-exposure tables are trivially empty this run.
  The v4 sizing regime treats 40–70% cash as normal in an efficient week; 100% cash is the extreme of the same principle
  when the slate offers no in-band, in-liquidity entry at all. Risk profile: zero market risk carried;
  the only exposure is the opportunity cost of the ~3 weeks until the Sep-1 legs roll and new monthly legs open with fresh books.

## Execution notes

- No orders to place. Existing picks (per $EXISTING_PICKS) are untouched by this run.
- The Sep-1 expiry wall (nearly the whole Tier-1 slate) rolls in ~3 weeks; the next run should catch the new
        Oct-1 legs — including KXAGICO-COMP-26Q3 (closes Oct 1, OI 41k) which missed this horizon by six days.
- KXHOUSERUSSIASANCTION (vote-count slate, event 26AUG10, 6.7k vol24 at file-build time) carries a
        Jan-1-2027 close time and fell outside the horizon; if the House vote is actually scheduled, it will resolve early —
        worth watching for the next run rather than an exception in this one.
- Precedent writeback: 2 verified entries (Ken Martin AUG01 leg, Alito JUL01 leg) in precedents.json.

## Precedents consulted

No Stage-2 candidates survived Stage 0, so no per-candidate precedent retrieval drove a probability this run.
  Store coverage checked: KXCBDECISIONCANADA (10 rows), KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT (2 — Jun and Jul legs, both NO), KXIPOANTHROPIC (2 — both NO),
  KXKASHOUT (2), KXHEGSETHOUT (2), KXALITOOUT (1), KXLEAVEWALZ (1) — all consistent with the deep-NO pricing observed;
  none contradicted a reject.

## Sources

- [Axios (Jul 28, 2026) — Hill Democrats don't want to talk about Ken Martin](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/28/ken-martin-dnc-democrats-house-congress-resign)
- [CNN (Jul 28, 2026) — Martin's supporters dismiss debt and leadership concerns](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/28/politics/ken-martin-democrats-dnc-party-debt)
- [Axios (May 22, 2026) — Martin's stock plummets over 2024 autopsy](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/22/dnc-autopsy-ken-martin-2024-resign-democrats)
- [UPI (Aug 7, 2026) — Alito confirms he will return for another term](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/08/07/alito-supreme-court/6631786153319/)
- [ABC News (Aug 2026) — Alito confirms he's staying](https://abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/justice-samuel-alito-confirms-staying-supreme-court-term-135470106)

    Keel v4 audit · generated 2026-08-11 · universe = targets.json (117 series, generated 2026-08-11T15:06Z) ·
    data: kalmari.app DB mirror (schema-first) + Kalshi public API (*_fp / *_dollars fields) + primary-source news ·
    0 picks / 42 rejects / $2,500 (100%) cash · probability-before-price discipline moot this run: no market survived to Stage 2.